Poll: Biden holds double-digit lead over field of 2020 Dem presidential contenders

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Former Vice President Joe Biden has a double-digit lead over the next closest contender in a new poll of potential 2020 Democratic presidential candidates.

According to the latest data from Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, provided exclusively to The Hill, Biden has 27 percent among Democrats.

The next closest candidate is Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at 16 percent, followed by 2016 Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and media mogul Oprah Winfrey, each at 13 percent.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is the only other candidate to pull double-digit support at 10 percent. Rounding out the field are Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), with 4 percent support each. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) gets 2 percent support and New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is at 1 percent.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/369555-poll-biden-holds-double-digit-lead-over-field-of-2020-dem-presidential

[still_one]

1. Biden is a Democrat, Bernie has disavowed to be identified as a Democrat, and identifies as an

independent

[left-of-center2012]

41. And yet ...

The Democratic Party rules allow him to run in the Democratic primaries.
Don't like it?
Change the rules.

[still_one]

43. Only when he IDENTIFIED AS A DEMOCRAT did that happen. Doubt that is going to happen again,

because if he decides to run in 2020 and does that again, that will not endear him among many Democrats, and he isn't going to get the nomination

No rules need to be changed, the Democratic party will nominate a Democrat

[left-of-center2012]

44. Don't bet any money on it

His supporters aren't going away,
including the bazillion Democrats who voted for him.

[still_one]

45. bullshit. I would bet money on it, because a bazillion more Democrats rejected him

[Demsrule86]

48. I don't think he will run. He won't win a primary ...he has to know that.

[still_one]

57. I think so too

[stevenleser]

50. How can Biden be beating Bernie? Bernies supporters here always say hes the most popular

Politician in the US

I guess that poll showing Bernie most popular was flawed.

[LAS14]

2. I'm afraid I just can't get excited. I could have a few years ago....

I do think we need to present a face of new blood. Dunno what that is right now.

[still_one]

46. That is exactly what will happen LAS. This is just background noise speculation. I predict it will

be someone that the media's polls don't even have on their radar

[vi5]

3. At this point, this is just name recognition.....

...and nothing more.

[Bucky]

10. yep, hardly even news

I love Joe, I supported him twice running for president. 1988 and 2008. But it's time to make room for another generation.

[vi5]

20. Same here.....

...I love the guy but at this point he needs to just use his name and voice for other endeavors within the party and for the country.

[woolldog]

32. Nope.

its joes time.

[DemocraticSocialist8]

4. Biden is going to poll high because he was Obama's VP and most normal people

still view the Obama years favorably. I DON'T think he'd be the best to head the 2020 ticket however. He has the Anita Hill problem and he's known for groping people...which in the midst of the #MeToo climate, is a recipe for disaster. I just don't think Biden is transformative enough. I think Elizabeth Warren would be a strong pick in 2020. She's Progressive and she's a fighter who will stand up to Trump. That's what the Dems need.

I know some people on DU don't want to hear this, but status-quo Dems is not the way to go in 2020. That's a recipe for disaster.

[Tarheel_Dem]

8. How about we let "Dems" decide who's "status-quo" in 2020? We'll select our own nominee, TYVM. nt

[leftstreet]

5. He'd be an adequate POTUS, but he can't beat Trump n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Biden can't beat a guy with an approval rating in the 30s ?

He's not Hillary who for all of her strengths was easy to negatively caricature.

[Bucky]

14. Yes, can you even imagine someone negatively portraying Biden?

I love Joe. And I proudly supported him both times he ran for the nomination. But he's not our best messenger for this go round

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. What am I supposed to infer from that photo ?

[NewJeffCT]

18. I'm not sure, either

that he's a friendly grandfatherly figure?

[former9thward]

33. He is just being a "friendly grandfatherly figure" here?

The wife of the Defense Secretary doesn't appear to be too comfortable with being pawed. As other posters have said, Biden's time has come and gone. Time for a new face and hopefully not one with #Metoo issues.

[customerserviceguy]

40. Yeah

that's a little creepy...

[delisen]

36. Reminds me of Bush creeping up on Merkel.

None of it matters because our next candidate will be a woman.

The machinations against Clinton in 2016-Republican, Russian, and even some on the left will be an anchor that is going to hold down even the most popular male candidate.

We are not going to be able to go back the the old way of doing things.Democracy is in the balance.

[StevieM]

30. Can you imagine someone saying that John Kerry lied about his service in Vietnam?

Absolutely I can imagine Joe Biden being negatively portrayed. Any Democrat who wins the nomination will be labeled a bad human being.

[Awsi Dooger]

21. I don't think Biden would defeat Trump

An incumbent whose party has been in power only one term holds enormous advantages and benefit of a doubt. We can't rely on short term flimsy indications like 35ish approval ratings three years removed while ignoring the foundational aspects.

I'll continue to believe we are in excellent shape in 2018 but likely to lose in 2020. That is a big picture focus without caring about specifics. That's the way I look at things. The out party owns huge edge in the opening midterm and then the tide shifts back toward that incumbent president. Throughout 2016 I dreaded a Republican victory because it was almost certainly a 2-for-1 if it happened. That second win is much easier than the first.

I realize Trump looks like he has to be an exception. I hope he is the exception. But every handicapping instinct tells me his approval rating will normalize and since we lack an outstanding candidate everything will drift back to the foundational beginning, which is yet another incumbent re-elected.

If someone emerges as an incredibly popular charismatic challenger, then I'm open to changing my mind. I don't like the looks of our roster right now.

Beyond anything we need to be prioritizing registration drives. The gain would be extraordinary right now. It might not matter in 2020 but down the road it tips one race after another. Get those youngsters registered as Democrats and thinking like Democrats. They are available now. If we stupidly wait until 2020 to make it a priority then the terrain is more balanced and advantage is long forfeited.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Let's stipulate Trump's approval rating is 40% or below in November of 2020.

How does he get twenty percent of Americans who disapprove of his job to vote for him for re-election ? ( 1/5 of 40% = 8%). Even with the Electoral College he still needs to be around 48% nationally to be re-elected. Historically incumbents share of the vote roughly approximate their approval ratings.


What if Mueller finds evidence of presidential wrongdoing ?

What if we go into recession ? This is already one of the longest economic expansions in the history of the republic.

[woolldog]

35. I enjoy your posts and

your mathematical/gambling style approach to things. Obviously from ur posts you have some professional gambling background.

But even the best gambler is wrong once in a while!

Biden will trounce Trump! Trump is doing horribly right now and many, even in tomato red counties, see him as an embrssment to the country. It took a ridiculously improbable series of misfortunes lining up (Comey, Russian hacking etc) for Hillary, a horrible candidate in her own right, to barely lose to the guy. There will be a blue wave for Dems in 2018 too. All the conditions will favor Biden. The only negative for Biden is age, but running against Trump, another old man, moots that issue.

[StevieM]

39. I totally disagree that she was a horrible candidate.

She won all the debates and put on a great convention. And we didn't see the kinds of mistakes and mishaps that we had under a candidate like Mike Dukakis. The media has written a spiteful narrative in the aftermath of the election, just like they were getting ready to do in 2008 had she lost New Hampshire.

Any Democrat would have been placed under FBI investigation and destroyed by James Comey. That is a tough situation to navigate and I think Hillary did it as well as can be expected.

[lapfog_1]

29. joe would mop the floor with Trump

he gets the Democratic base, suburban women AND significant portion of working class white voters.

I love Joe.

Another plus is that he isn't the lightning rod for the right like Hillary was...

However, all that said, I would wish that he was 10 to 15 years younger.

[stevenleser]

51. I disagree, I dont think Bernie would be adequate. nt

[BannonsLiver]

6. Wow, Gillibrand is barely registering.

[Skittles]

17. no way would she get anywhere

she will be associated with Franken to the end of her days

[samnsara]

7. i really really really want biden to run but if he doesnt i will settle for..

CORY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! and or Harris.....or both!

[Bucky]

15. Booker or Feldman?

[NewJeffCT]

19. Booker/Harris 2020

or Harris/Booker

[maxsolomon]

9. CAN'T WE FIND SOMEONE OLDER?

DiFi is 84. We should think about her.

[Bucky]

11. Why are you ignoring Mondale?

He's been seasoned by 3 national campaigns and decades as a senior statesman

[maxsolomon]

12. Good point. And Jimmy Carter only served 1 term.

So he's available as well. 93 years young!

[quartz007]

55. LOL

[mvd]

23. Right now my choice would be Bernie, but we always seem to win..

with younger candidates. Biden has the same age problem and isn't as liberal. Oprah has no experience. Warren is a possibility, as is Harris. Gillibrand has gone lower on my list. Definite no to Cuomo, though I have said I would support virtually any Democrat this time.

[jalan48]

24. His time was 2016

[StevieM]

37. I disagree. At the start of the race HRC was polling in the 60s while Biden was in single digits.

He wasn't the guy people wanted, at least not in that cycle.

Maybe that will change in 2020.

[Gothmog]

25. I would support Joe if he ran

[pnwmom]

26. He's much more well known, so that's not surprising. But millions of women already know

that they want someone who can stand up for equality -- and he's not the guy. He's an appeaser.

[Horse with no Name]

27. We are going to have a consensus candidate

I will cast my lot with Biden because I think he can win some of the Indy’s.

[Still In Wisconsin]

28. Sign me up. I love Joe Biden.

I think Joe would take Dump to the woodshed.

[StevieM]

31. Neither of my two favorite candidates were asked about. I like Tom Steyer and Jay Inslee. (eom)

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

38. Inslee used to be my Congressman

I think the reason he ran for governor is that he was tired of DC.

[delisen]

34. Name recognition poll by discredited pollster Mark Penn

Penn sells his services to politicians and these online polls he does may be done at the behest of others or done by him for marketing purposes.

If Biden stays out of the news for awhile before one of these polls his numbers will come in lower.

Penn is lining up his his revenue stream for 2018-2020.

[left-of-center2012]

42. We've been told it will be Oprah

What changed?

[quartz007]

56. That photo of her with Weinstein?

[X_Digger]

49. Too.Fucking.Old. n/t

[quartz007]

52. Go Biden!

I always liked Biden.

[Irish_Dem]

53. We need to pay attention to these poll numbers. nt

[Jarqui]

54. I really like Joe and Bernie but I think they will be too old by 2020

I like all of them as politicians.

I do not think we can go with Hillary again.

I'm not sure about Oprah's lack of experience but really like her as a person.

Of that list, I'm currently most interested in learning more about Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker and particularly Kamala Harris (who I know the least about) but I'm a long way from developing a firm attachment.

The Gillibrand - Franken thing put me off her. I liked Al and he would have been on my candidate's list.

[stevenleser]

58. Joe is a nice guy, he deserves to be the most popular politician. nt

Last edited Sat Feb 3, 2018, 01:19 PM - Edit history (1)