The Point:🚨The Democratic wave looks like it is getting bigger
Chris Cillizza at the Point, CNN email
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On Tuesday night, it happened again. Democrat Patty Schachtner beat Republican Adam Jarchow for a western Wisconsin state Senate seat that had been held by a Republican since 2000 and in a district that President Donald Trump won handily in 2016.
Schachtner's win marked the first Republican-to-Democrat switch at the state legislative level of 2018, but it is the 34th state legislative seat pickup for Democrats since the start of 2017. That trend is beginning to rightly alarm smart Republicans.
It's not just Wisconsin. In Virginia, Democrats flipped 15 Republican seats in the November 2017 election. A 16th seat ended tied, but Republicans retained control after their candidate won a drawing of lots. In Oklahoma -- not exactly a Democratic-friendly state -- Democrats nonetheless picked up three GOP-held state legislative seats last year. In New Hampshire, two GOP seats flipped in September.
The writing is on the wall. The Democratic base is hugely excited -- largely due to their distaste for Trump. The Republican base -- at least for most of 2017 -- has been less passionate. And that sort of base enthusiasm disparity has translated -- and likely will continue to translate -- into major gains for Democrats in the midterms.
There are caveats, for sure. Republicans grew their numbers massively at the state legislative level during the Obama presidency -- picking up more than 900 seats across the country. And Republicans aren't losing every race at the state legislative level. But a broad look at the election results of the past year suggests one thing very clearly: Republicans are headed for a major reckoning from voters this fall.
Already 33 Republican House members have announced they will either retire or run for some other office in 2018 as compared to just 15 Democrats. Of those 33 Republican retirements, a number hail from seats Hillary Clinton won in 2016 or where Trump's margin was small.
The Point: The thing about waves is they build on themselves. Big ones get bigger as they approach the shallower shore. That looks to be what's happening with each passing week. And while the 2018 election might feel very far off, we are now under 300 days away from November 6, 2018. It may well already be too late for Republicans.
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I put the whole thing up as I'm sure CNN would want more subscribers for the newsletters.
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