The Voters Abandoning Donald Trump

[DonViejo]

According to previously unpublished findings, the blue-collar whites at the core of his coalition have lost faith over his first year in office.

RONALD BROWNSTEIN 6:00 AM ET

A massive new source of public-opinion research offers fresh insights into the fault lines emerging in Donald Trump’s foundation of support.

Previously unpublished results from the nonpartisan online-polling firm SurveyMonkey show Trump losing ground over his tumultuous first year not only with the younger voters and white-collar whites who have always been skeptical of him, but also with the blue-collar whites central to his coalition.

Trump retains important pillars of support. Given that he started in such a strong position with those blue-collar whites, even after that decline he still holds a formidable level of loyalty among them—particularly men and those over 50 years old. What’s more, he has established a modest but durable beachhead among African American and Hispanic men, even while confronting overwhelming opposition from women in those demographic groups.

Together, the results crystallize the bet Trump is making for his own reelection in 2020, and for his party’s chances in November’s election: that he can mobilize enough support among older and blue-collar (as well as rural and evangelical) whites to offset the intense resistance he’s provoked from groups that are all growing in the electorate: Millennials, minorities, and college-educated whites—particularly the women among them.

These findings emerge from a cumulative analysis of 605,172 interviews SurveyMonkey conducted with Americans in 2017 about Trump’s job performance. At my request, Mark Blumenthal, SurveyMonkey’s head of election polling, calculated Trump’s average approval rating over the last year among groups of voters segmented simultaneously by their race, gender, education level, and age. That extra level of detail, not available in conventional polls because their samples are too small, offers a more precise picture of Trump’s coalition.

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https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/01/the-voters-abandoning-donald-trump/550247/

[tazkcmo]

1. 35%

His base and they aren't going anywhere.

[duforsure]

2. In time

When millions realize they didn't get a tax cut, and lost their health care, and watch trump undermining the ACA to skyrocket premiums for the remaining people, and the tax scam creates another recession, and more they'll turn on him and see him as most do, a liar , and a con man. He can't ever be trusted.

[uponit7771]

3. K&R, I know a Trump voter who finally admits the eventual middle class tax increase wont help him

... in the long run