What Do Democrats Have to Do to Get a Majority in the House?

[MineralMan]

Here's what: We need to flip just 24-25 Republican seats and retain all Democratic seats. Or the equivalent, worked out whatever way works.

24-25 flipped seats. We can do that. We can.

Think of it this way: If we flip one Republican congressional district in just half of the 50 states, we reach that goal. Half of the states.

But, what if we flipped one seat in all 50 states? That would give us a terrific margin. One seat. Just one. I know of two that should be flippable in my state of Minnesota. How about your state? Is there one? Which district? What are you willing to do to flip that seat?

Are you ready to help flip a seat in your state? I sure hope so.

[Heartstrings]

1. Midterms, Midterms, Midterms!

Well said, MineralMan! And I'm ready!

[brooklynite]

2. That's not how we do it...

"all 50 States" is a great bumper sticker, but it's meaningless strategy. We focus attention and money where the races are actually winnable. The 15 tossup races are in only 12 States. The "Lean R" seats are in only 15 (many of the same).

[MineralMan]

3. That's not how you'd do it, anyhow.

I'm talking about a different approach that involves massive GOTV efforts and looks outside of the traditional box. Please go right ahead with your "winnable seats" approach. I'm going with the Virginia approach. Either way, we work hard and we win.

[brooklynite]

6. How much will you be contributing to fund that nationwide GOTV effort?

In my case, my resources are finite, so I'll target them where they'll do the most good.

[MineralMan]

9. There are no national GOTV efforts.

GOTV is purely local in nature. It always has been. It's up to each of us to contribute our time to such efforts. Money doesn't work. Time and personal contact works.

[Bradshaw3]

16. How about both approaches?

For sure everyone contribute what they can but almost everyone is able to take part in a local GOTV effort. I will be, in a red part of a purple state regardless of the likely outcome. As Virginia showed, you never know what will happen when you actually run candidates across the board, even in red districts.

Nationally, it does make sense for the party to target certain races when it comes to spending. But looking at the outcomes so far, there may be a lot more "winnable" districts than even the Democratic party is willing to acknowledge. Just one more reason to get out there and work, making that person-to-person contact. After all, it looks like control of the VA legislature will come down to one more vote for a Democrat.

[MineralMan]

20. Sure. Money is always needed.

However, the DCCC truly does not necessarily understand the local races very well. Local Democratic workers do. I see the largest task to be getting reluctant or apathetic voters to show up at the polls. If we can do that with dramatic results, there are lots of flippable seats. That's something the DCCC can't help with.

[crazycatlady]

49. The DCCC is responsible for behind the scenes funding

DIsclaimer-- I've trained with them.

IN order to get their support, candidates need to meet certain benchmarks. Mainly they have to prove to be viable (by polling and fundraising). They typically stay out of primaries unless one candidate is incredibly toxic (a Roy Moore).

THey provide a lot of behind the scenes support including funding to state parties that in turn pay for staff.

[Heartstrings]

33. Wisconsin's Randy Bryce could use your help ($)

to defeat lyin' Ryan.......

[brooklynite]

37. Precisely the sort of race I -won't- support...

The emotional thrill of "getting Paul Ryan" is offset by the reality that this is a gerrymandered "Safe R" district. Plenty of other seat are more ripe for pick-up.

Also, Bryce has a Democratic Primary opponent.

[LakeArenal]

39. Oh. Brookly you never support the little guy

You keep up that strategy of trying nothing new and being all out of any new ideas.

[brooklynite]

43. I support the candidates that are competitive...

...which candidate should I NOT give money to if it goes to your guy?

[LakeArenal]

45. You have already said many times

That you won’t support many of the contests I’m interested in because they are impossible to win for gerrymandering or solid red or whatever your reasons.

I’ve just made the observation that you do so. Give to whomever. Democrat is the only rule, right?

Some of us like the fight in the red gerrymandered impossible races because we live and vote there. We ask for help doing that. You don’t want to support that, it’s your right.

It seems you want to dissuade others from helping those hard races.

[Heartstrings]

53. We're just not feelin' the love here today are we, LakeArenal?

Doesn't stop me, or us......

On Wisconsin! We can flip back!

[LakeArenal]

55. Randy Bryce Randy Bryce

Randy Bryce..

[Heartstrings]

56. Say that name 3 times a day.....

[Heartstrings]

40. Wisconsin thanks you for your support.....geesh!

[brooklynite]

44. And if I gave the money to your race, someone from KS would say the same?

(Kansas has two races more likely to flip than you do)

[LakeArenal]

57. Say the names.. How do you know we wouldn't send a donation....

This is what it's about for you right? The donation.

Look, if people where I live recognize the names of people who need some name recognition in your state isn't that something. If you can get conversations going, tell people the names of whom you do support. Isn't that something.?
If in conversation, we say, I hear that guy in Kansas, Joe Doe, is someone to keep an eye on.. Isn't that something?

When you see a thread you are interested in, you could quote Joe Doe's stance on a subject. Instead of I won't support that guy or that guy... stand then for whomever you do support.

Try, "I can't support Randy Bryce financially because of Joe Doe's race in Kansas against the repuke Simon LeGree. But I think Randy Bryce Is a name I will remember."

[brooklynite]

58. Be careful what you ask for...you might get it

Competitive House races
AZ-02
CA-10
CA-25
CA-39
CA-45
CA-48
CA-49
CO-06
FL-26
FL-27
GA-06
IA-03
IA-01
IL-06
IL-12
KS-02
KS-03
ME-02
MI-08
MI-11
MN-02
MN-03
NE-02
NJ-02
NJ-07
NJ-11
NY-19
NY-22
PA-06
PA-07
PA-08
PA-15
TX-07
TX-23
TX-32
VA-10
WA-08

Competitive Senate Races
AZ-Kyrsten Sinema
NV-Jackey Rosen
TN-Phil Breseden

Competitive Governor Races
New Mexico
Florida
Illinois
Maine
Michigan
Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio
Wisconsin

The reason I don't list names for the House or Gov races is that there is an extensive list of Democrats running in Primaries (Just like in WI-1). I'll leave it to local Democrats to make a choice before I get involved.

(this list doesn't include the 17 States with Attorney General races, 18 States with Secretary of State races and 21 States with State Controller races, all of which I'm researching)

[Jim Lane]

59. Ryan's district isn't all that safe for the GOP

According to its Wikipedia article, it has a PVI of R+5. That's a definite Republican edge but not an insuperable one.

Another factor is that there are rumors Ryan may retire. An open seat is often a good opportunity. A district of R+5 with an open seat may well be an easier flip than a district of R+1 with a well-known (and well-entrenched) Republican incumbent.

ETA: The PVI numbers are from the Cook Partisan Voting Index. It's a rough but useful indication of the political lean of a Congressional district. There's more information about it at its Wikipedia article.

[brooklynite]

60. And IF he resigns, that'll go into my analysis.

[NewJeffCT]

47. if we only gave money to winnable races

we'd never have gotten Senator Doug Jones from Alabama.

[brooklynite]

52. No, you're wrong...

AL-SEN was actually rated as "Lean-R" or "Tossup" once Roy Moore got the nominee.

another fun fact: we're ahead in TN-SEN: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10141944169 Definitely a good investment

[crazycatlady]

4. In my state, the DCCC is targeting 4/5 GOP seats

Of course I live in the last holdout.

This bill is bad news for NJ. They should go for the kill.

[MineralMan]

10. The Minnesota DFL is targeting three districts currently

held by Republicans. Two are very possible. The other one is a maybe. We're going to give it our best efforts.

[crazycatlady]

12. These are the national Dems targeting the 4 GOP seats

One of them already announced his retirement (on Election Day).

Chris Smith (the only NJ GOP congressman not being targeted) is getting very defensive. I've called his office multiple times and instead of putting a mark in the tally column, his staffer was very defensive when I told her the repeal of net neutrality would effect my bottom line (I run an Etsy store and want people to flock there instead of Amazon).

He was first elected the year I was born. People born when he was elected are now eligible for POTUS. It's time to get him out. 37 years is a long enough term in Congress.

[bpj62]

5. Virginia 10th

We are working hard to defeat Barbara Comstock. The district is horribly gerrymandered but the recent victories by Democrats in the VA races will help. Comstock has been given cover by the House Leadership to vote against certain bills. We have a great lineup of candidates so hopefully we go blue in November. GOTV.

[MineralMan]

11. Local GOTV will do it, if the campaign is strong.

That's true almost everywhere a flip is possible. GOTV will make the difference, and that's someone each of us can help with in our own or neighboring districts.

[riverwalker]

13. CD 6. Emmer could be vulnerable

With the right candidate. I wish Patty Wetterling would run for that seat again. She lost to Bachmann. This time she could win.

[MineralMan]

14. That's a tough one, I think.

Emmer might be defeatable, but it will be a difficult race. Wetterling could win, though. She has strong emotional support, and might pull some Republicans over. GOTV will be hugely important in that district, as in the two I list below:

CD 2 is pretty likely, since Jason Lewis is a Trump clone. I think that one can be flipped with a good effort.
CD 3 is another one we should be able to flip, I think. I see Paulsen as a weak candidate in 2018.

[riverwalker]

24. This is the only one running against him

He only has 42 followers on Twitter.

https://www.iantoddforcongress.com

[world wide wally]

7. We flipped 16 in Virginia alone.

25 nationwide should not be a problem. I look for more like 100 - 150

BUT ... We need to VOTE!

[NewJeffCT]

48. That was the state House

US House of Representatives is another story.

[world wide wally]

50. I know that, but it is still gerrymandered districts ,,, and we won

[crazycatlady]

8. The list of seats the DCCC is targeting

https://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/20171109_year-out-memo.pdf

[Bradshaw3]

19. 91 seats targeted; Yes!!

Thanks for posting.

[Willie Pep]

15. A lot of districts can be flipped even in red states.

People just have to put the work in and have a strong GOTV effort. I never understood the strategy of just abandoning parts of the country as "unwinnable." Even if you lose at least you build an organization and get your "brand" out there.

[NewJeffCT]

51. agreed

With the unpopularity of Trump, we should have somebody running for every Congressional seat

[scheming daemons]

17. We're going to flip at least 7 seats in California alone

[MineralMan]

21. Yes! California is ripe for the picking.

Go for it!

[mcar]

18. I'm already working on it

I've helped to start a Democratic Women's Club chapter in my red county and currently serve as an officer. I'm scheduling all 4 Democrats who are running to replace our useless congress critter to speak to our group over the next several months. And, we're working with the local Democratic Black Caucus and Democratic Progressive Caucus, as well as the local party, to hold joint events to GOTV.

The big push in FL is vote-by-mail. Many people don't realize anyone can sign up for it.

There are other districts in FL that are more flippable. The state Democratic Women's Club is fired up and the state party finally seems to be paying attention. I think FL can flip at least one seat.

[MineralMan]

22. Yay You!!!

[mcar]

23. Yay me!

It is so nice to talk to like-minded people in my county. I'd been feeling very isolated.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

25. Start by electing more Democrats to State Houses of Representatives.

And the State Senates.

That's where redistricting occurs. Go truly grass roots.

Also, keep in mind that seven states have only one House seat. Another five have only two seats. And another three have only three seats. The Republican seats in those states will be incredibly difficult to flip. Bigger states with more districts present more opportunities. Especially if we elect more Democratic state legislatures to fix some of the worst of the gerrymandering.

[pangaia]

28. We need to elect dems at EVERY level... even road commissioner

school boards, mayors, town councils, water boards, etc etc etc

THAT, in my view, is how we got to where we are now.. repubs started pushing this in early 1980's, maybe earlier...

[treestar]

35. Yes, the school boards

that's one of the places the right wing started and why there is so many evolution-denying nutcases on them.

[LakeArenal]

46. School boards!!!

So important. Well said!

[pangaia]

26. NY 27th we're workin' on it..

Collins is a first class schmuck..

[Hoyt]

27. If we get out vote, we win.

[dalton99a]

36. No truer words

[Gothmog]

29. We have several open seats in Texas that could be flipped

[MineralMan]

30. Go get 'em!

[muntrv]

31. GOTV.

[Justice]

32. I posted yesterday about targeted seats in NJ, NY and CA

Target 14 California House Republicans in 2018; 7 are very vulnerable
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210003687

Target 6 New York Congressional Seats
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210003801


Target these 4 New Jersey Congressional Seats
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210003784

[crazycatlady]

34. PA-06, PA-07, PA-08 are also in the same boat

All 3 are the Philly suburbs. Go get em!

[MineralMan]

42. Yes. There are many other races, as well, that can be targeted

by local Democrats, who know their own districts better than anybody.

[mvd]

38. We have a well funded candidate in PA-6

Chrissy Houlahan. Here is her website:

https://www.chrissyhoulahanforcongress.com

She is running against Ryan Costello, who voted for the tax scam bill despite my call and the calls of many others.

[Orsino]

41. GOTV without waffling by our leaders...

...on an agenda that directly benefits the most potential voters. Be prepared to talk over the cable airheads who work against us.

It sounds impossible, and at this late stage may just be. We've already let too much power slip away into the pockets of the rich.

Now we have to do even more with even less.

[TheDebbieDee]

54. The Dems need to run candidates that

know how to fight dirty!