"Just a Bad, Bad Idea"--- Josh Marshall's thought provoking view on Libya

[KoKo]

Just a Bad, Bad Idea
Josh Marshall | March 20, 2011, 6:11PM

At the end of last week I couldn't help tweeting that everything I was seeing in Libya was bringing out my inner foreign policy Realist. And everything I've seen this weekend has confirmed me in that view. Indeed, there are so many reasons this strikes me as a bad idea I really hardly know where to start. So let me focus on the three biggest problems I see.

First, insurrections like these by poorly organized rebel forces depend hugely on momentum and the perceived weakness of the leader. Not long ago Qaddafi's authority appeared to be crumbling. Numerous members of the regime were defecting to the inchoate rebel forces. It seemed like only a matter of days. Perhaps hours. The turning point came when Qaddafi stabilized the front moving into western Libya. Once that happened, once he'd halted the momentum toward collapse, it was very bad news for the rebels because as we've seen Qaddafi had all the heavy weapons and command and control on his side. By this weekend, without massive outside intervention, it's pretty clear Qaddafi had already won.

.......

Second, it's difficult for me to distinguish this from an armed insurrection against a corrupt autocrat that looked to be winning and then lost. That sort of thing happens a lot. Only in very specific circumstances is there any logic for us to intervene in a situation like that. I've heard people saying well, we took too long to stop the ethnic cleansing in the Balkans and we didn't lift a finger to stop the genocide in Rwanda, so let's not make the same mistake this time. But these seem like preposterous comparisons. This is ugly and it's brutal but a lot of people getting killed in a failed rebellion isn't genocide. It's not. And unlike situations where violence can destabilize the larger region, in this case our presence seems more likely to destabilize the larger region.

MORE AT ..........

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2011/03/at_the_end_of_last.php#more?ref=fpblg

[Tatiana]

1. What is interesting is that Josh was one of those in favor of the Iraq invasion initially.

Looks like he learned his lesson.

His points are salient and I agree with his assessment.

[Blue Owl]

2. Obama's wearing a comfortable pair of "Bad Idea" jeans

n/t

[ProSense]

3. Another View on Libya

TPM: Another View on Libya

[Iterate]

11. This is one of the better expressions of a long-term view

that I've read.

I'm left wondering if it was the young and talented lower tiers at the State Department in Arab nations as well as at the UN, those close to the scene, who were the leaders of the policy shift over the past few months, rather that more nefarious whisperings from the dark side as some would suggest.

[chowder66]

13. +1 ....for the bigger picture

[JDPriestly]

15. I see both sides of this.

But I think that if we have money for these airstrikes and we apparently do, then the whole "balance the budget" mania is just nonsense -- just a political ploy to put down working people who are Democrats.

It seems to me that Obama should have made a deal with the Republicans in Congress before striking out in support of rebels in Libya: raise taxes on the rich or severely cut the defense budget -- including no allocation of money for supporting yet another problem in Libya.

Obama usually has good sense about foreign policy. I trust him on it. But I think he should have talked to the American people about the implicit financial repercussions of yet another American involvement in yet another country.

I have to add that I have questions about just who these Libyan rebels are. I'm wondering how much our government knows about them.

Now that is a topic that our State Department should talk to us about. We shouldn't have to find out from another Wikileaks disclosure just who these people are. I assume that our government knows who they are and what they are up to.

[ReturnoftheDjedi]

4. Josh would rather have a city full of dead Rebels.

[gratuitous]

6. I don't see where he says that

But if, for example, anything less than a herculean effort is required to retrieve a situation (as may very well be the case here), should we spend prodigious amounts to save the rebels, knowing they could very well die anyway? At what point are the potential returns so diminished as to make the effort to save the doomed an exercise in self-abnegation? Or is there any such point?

[sabrina 1]

8. Well, he's got that if he wants in Yemen, the Ivory Coast

Somalia, Bahrain. I mean if he wants cities of dead rebels, we'll need to be all over the place. But they don't have the necessary incentive to get the Colonial Nations interested enough to save them.

If it was about dead rebels, I'd be for it. I just read that we have killed over 60 people in Libya this weekend. And in Afghanistan and Iraq and Pakistan, I haven't checked the daily body count this morning yet.

It's not about dead rebels. But that's what Bush told us too. Maybe he was telling the truth after all?

[dennis4868]

5. I like TPM....

But Joshua is way off....the military action has everything to do with humanitarian interest....a leader killing his own people is a genocide and must be stopped...and I know, people will say what about other parts of the world....and I aghree, somethign should be done by the internationally community to stop it....

[emulatorloo]

7. You should also read a long response Josh got, Josh posted it here:

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2011/03/another_view_on_libya.php

Another View on Libya
Josh Marshall | March 21, 2011, 10:36AM

We've gotten a lot of response, positive and negative, to my comments last night on our intervention in Libya. Here's an email from a reader and American foreign policy professional in the region, taking a different view (I've slightly redacted the note to remove references to the reader's identity) ...

I have to disagree with your reasoning on Libya.
...

Perhaps you would have been correct a couple of months ago in saying that what happened in Libya was not of particular national or humanitarian interest to the United States. Today, though, you are wrong.

The Arab world is in a state of remarkable transformation. But you would be wrong to look at this transformation in the context of individual countries and individual revolutions. Because Arabs certainly do not see it that way. Rather, a feeling of solidarity between and among the citizens of the Arab world is what dominates: this is a regional, not national, transformation, and you can see this expressed all over the place.

EDIT add link

[meow mix]

9. +rec for the rebels

[highplainsdem]

10. +1 for that response to Josh

[KoKo]

12. Kick for the Night Crowd...who doesn't have much time to waste..

:kick:

[KoKo]

14. ...another kick..because Josh was for Iraq War...but, he woke up ...good read.