I'm a Californian living 50 miles north of the Bay Area. How concerned should I really be?

[Downtown Hound]

Okay, doing my absolute best to stay calm and rational about this whole thing. But am I worried? Yes. You bet I am. I keep hearing different things from many different sources. All the official sources say I have nothing to be worried about. First they told me that there was no way the radiation would reach here. Now they're saying that it might reach here, but that it will probably be harmless. Then I hear all this stuff about how it's not only the reactors we need to be worried about, but all these spent fuel rods that could potentially magnify the problem enormously.

Now, I'd like to believe old uncle Sam and the friendly folks in the energy industry and pretend that everything is going to be a-okay, but there's a slight problem: I don't. Am I saying that I think this is going to pose a serious health problem for us folks here? No, what I'm saying is, I DON'T KNOW. I'm trying both at the same time to remain calm and not give in to paranoia, but I'm afraid that their word simply isn't good enough for me. Not when they told us that drilling for oil in the Gulf of Mexico was safe. Not when they continue to deny that people are getting sick left and right along the gulf coast. Not when they told us that nuclear power was safe. Not when they told us that it was highly unlikely that the plants would melt down.

Nope. I'm afraid that their word means jack shit to me. A nuclear expert I am not. What I am is a self-employed man in my thirties with only a girlfriend, a house, and a small business to look after. My mom passed away last year and left me some money, enough to live off of for a few years doing nothing if I wanted. I could easily take off today, grab my girl and drive east, before the roads get choked with traffic, before the airports get slammed with people looking to escape. I could leave today if I wanted. Just drive east, find a cheap motel, and chill out for a month or two while this whole thing blows over.

Should I go, or am I being paranoid?

[Lastactiongyro]

1. Well you might what to get, water, MREs, flashlights, a wifi computer and extra gas.

Basic stuff. It all boils down to a lot of factors yet. No need to panic just yet. You could also watch "On The Beach" :)

[Downtown Hound]

2. I'm not panicking yet. I'm just weighing my options.

And the truth is, if I was to leave, now would be the perfect time. So I'm more debating on whether or not it would be better to leave now or wait. The problem with waiting is that leaving might not be so easy later if we really do end up getting slammed.

[Lastactiongyro]

3. Well if you have a place to go, go for it.

We have around 3 days left with the spent fuel rods pool's decreasing water level and then we get to find out if GE built the world's largest dirty bomb.

[Paper Roses]

4. All other valid points aside for a moment, I'm glad you mentioned

"On the Beach". I have tried to remember the name of that movie for ages. I wanted to recommend that friends watch it but could not remember the title.

I think it is one of the most important 'food for thought' movies ever made. I'm going to try and find it myself to watch tonight.

[Lastactiongyro]

5. Your Welcome! Another Movie is the Documentray

The Battle for Chenorybl

You can watch it free here:

http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/the-battle-of-chernobyl/#

[Jersey Devil]

6. The novel is much better than the movie

"On the Beach" by Nevil Shute
http://www.amazon.com/Beach-Vintage-International-Nevil-Shute/dp/0307473996/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1300277368&sr=8-1

I read it as a teenager and it scared the hell out of me. The movie - not so good.

[Lastactiongyro]

7. The Novel is awesome!

[Violet_Crumble]

13. I never saw the movie, but read the book when I was a kid...

I agree with the other poster. It scared me silly at the time...

[Diclotican]

Paper Roses

Paper Roses

Have not seen the "On the Beach". Even tho I know it my rumors... But I rembember well a movie called "the day after".. It was made from a novel, who I also have read by the way... And the day after was really a aye opener for me, to what nuclear war in fact could have been,Even tho the movie is old by our standards (1984) it is still a movie who are really good... I was still in 6th grade when I saw the movie.. And I had nightmares about the movie for a long time... I have it on one of the HDDs, but have not really looked at it even tho its a long time since I was in 6th grade;)

Now, it might not be anytime near a nuclear war between super-powers.. But we do have a horrible potential accident in Japan on our hands.. Who could be far worse than Chernobyl was.. That is a danger no man should thing easy on... CHernobyl was one of the biggest accidents at the time.. This have the potentials to dwarf Cherobyl many times over...

Poor Japan, first a 9.0 Earthquake, then a tsunami, and now potential nuclear meltdown in 4 reactors... The human and matrial cost of this wil be enormous and be known for Japan the worst thing happening since 1945..

Diclotican

[Geoff R. Casavant]

34. I found myself surprisingly moved by the remake.

There is a scene at the end (spoiler alert!) . . . .










with a family choosing to end their own lives. They all climb on a bed, and the father injects a drug into his 6- or 7-year old daughter, who was kept unaware. She dies peacefully, almost instantly. Then the mother and father hug each other and take the pills they had kept. As a married man with a young daughter, that scene resonates with me and is on my short list of scenes that will always, always make me cry.

[Ghost Dog]

10. [underline]Read[/u] "On The Beach" (and "In The Wet"), better!

For a time, one of my mother's favorite novelists. I was always impressed by that guy with his miniature engineering workshop - or am I thinking of "Trustee from the Toolroom"? :)

Edit: Author: Nevil Shute: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevil_Shute

[Keith Bee]

8. That comet will burn up in the atmosphere...

...and end up no bigger than a chihuahua's (spellcheck) head.

[Downtown Hound]

9. Eh?

[Lastactiongyro]

18. Wait acording to the movies Meteors only occur if you have a Black President...uh oh.

:)

[Violet_Crumble]

11. If I were there, I'd be shitscared of potential earthquakes...

Which means if I'd had the misfortune to be CalifornianViolet, I'd have long ago packed my bags and moved to Australia...

I think yr being just a bit cheap and unrealistic. Who on earth would survive for a month or two in anything less than a 4.5 star hotel? If a fluffy robe and pillow menu aren't available, then it's far too cheap and tacky for any Nuclear Refugee of the future!

[Downtown Hound]

12. You mean Motel 6 ISN'T a FOUR STAR MOTEL???!!!

All this time...I have been duped!

[Violet_Crumble]

17. Just had to go off and google Motel 6. LOL....

Slightly more upmarket than the Formula 1 hotel chain we have here, which isn't saying much...

Anyway, on a serious note, I would hope you've got nothing to worry about. More to worry about than me, but not so much that you should be running for the car and leaving town...

[Downtown Hound]

14. Oh, and as for Earthquakes, nah, they don't scare me

I've been through a variety of them during my time here, including the Loma Prieta quake in '89. I'd be much more afraid of tornados if I lived in tornado country. Tronados happen every year. Big Earthquakes only happen once in awhile (Or at least they used to. I might have to retract that statement if things keep going the way they are).

[Violet_Crumble]

20. I've experienced two minor ones and I was terrified...

Once in Rotorua in New Zealand years ago, and one in the middle of the night at home years back that only went for a few seconds. I guess it's what you said where familiarity breeds less fear. I hope yr part of the world stays major quake-free...

[cbdo2007]

15. Realistically - you don't need to be scared at all.

Unless the Japan situation gets MUCH WORSE than Chernobyl, you will be fine. We're talking complete nuclear meltdown of all reactors.

That being said, it doesn't hurt to be prepared for the worst. Have some emergency supplies ready and a plan. Rather than just "drive east" have a destination in mind and even call ahead trying to get reservations. You will know immediately if the situation in Japan gets bad enough that you need to go, but even with where we are right now the chances of that happening are very small.

[Lastactiongyro]

16. Agree, and really if you do leave have a destination in mind :)

[Downtown Hound]

19. And I agree with you, but there's one thing:

California is a big state, and much of it is still uninhabited. There's only a few ways out of this state from where I am. A few highways hundreds of miles from me that at many points narrow down to two lanes. A mass exodus of people means traffic accidents, and on these roads, that could mean huge delays. And while you're sitting there stuck in traffic, that radiation cloud is getting closer, and closer, and closer. Other than that, it's try your luck with the airports or train stations, and those could be a nightmare.

Right now the roads are clear. Leaving would be a piece of cake. Paranoid? Perhaps. But on the other hand, maybe it might turn out to be genius, (or just really (un)lucky forecasting).

[Lastactiongyro]

22. Good point, I have a friend who is from CA. says its like another country because

it is hard to get into and out of

[Downtown Hound]

24. There's pretty much a solid chunk of it in the middle

and on the Eastern border that is pretty much a whole lotta nothing. A few roads few and far between is what connects it to the rest of the U.S.A.

[cbdo2007]

25. It wouldn't hurt to have your emergency supplies ready and be packed and ready

to go at a moments notice. That's not being overparanoid.

The traffic backups happen when people wait too long after the catastrophic event occurs. Trust me, you'll know when/if it happens immediately. If you have all of your stuff ready to go, while everyone else is scrambling around, you'll be on the way out of town. One in a thousand people in the US even understands what's going on in Japan a little bit. That's you, because you're here getting informed. By the time they figure it out, you'll be out of town.

You're lucky in that you can leave. Many people won't be able to just pick up and go. If you are not tied down to your job and your gf and you need a romantic getaway to Denver, sure go ahead and go, but again, the chances of this getting to the level of seriously threatening the US West Coast is very, very small.

[dixiegrrrrl]

27. THAT is exactly the problem with delays in leaving.

I will tell you this:
With 3 day warnings of a major hurricane barreling into the Gulf of Mexico,
people in Mobile Ala. STILL waited until the damn thing was just offshore to evacuate,
and then got to sit on the freeway, frozen in traffic, in a 200 mile long line, while the hurricane raged over them.
For hours.
Same thing happened in Louisiana during Katrina, in Texas during Ike, etc etc.
Happens all the time. People wait till the last minute and then get to live on the freeway for days.

Me? I have a bag packed at all times and at least 2 people in 2 states who have agree I could come visit if a hurricane approaches. Not during. Not after. BEFORE it gets close.
Around here, we keep our tanks topped off as a matter of course days ahead of time.

[Generic Other]

35. We have three open passes through the mountains in Washington state

A lot of traffic must squeeze through to escape anything coming from the west.

I feel your fears. We will all go together when we go!

:grouphug:

A bit of Tom Lehrer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frAEmhqdLFs

[KharmaTrain]

21. Some Things To Consider...

In the 50s and 60s the US conducted hundreds of above ground nuclear tests...some over Pacific Atolls and others in the Nevada desert. One blast was so strong it turned night into day over the Vegas strip. Imagine all the fallout that rained down...yet life moved on.

Definitely be concerned, but the real fears should be for the people who live within the shadow of that boiling cauldron of radiation and the impacts it will have on the land and people for generations to come. I'll bet you live not far from a chemical plant or refinery that puts a lot of stuff in the air that isn't very good for you either.

[TBF]

23. What kind of business, and what is your girlfriend's situation?

Aside from your paranoia :) ...

Look at the practical things. You have a small business. Is it something that you can easily close down for a few months or transport (eBay business or something like that??) or do you have obligations to folks that you need to fulfill?

How does this affect your girlfriend? Does she have a job? Does she want to clear out for a couple months too?

Could you afford to simply take a vacation for a week or two while things play out?

You don't have to answer the questions publicly, just some things to think about.

[dixiegrrrrl]

26. Some things you might want to consider:

Here are 2 sources stating why the spent fuel rod pools are an even worse danger than the reactors, in the current situation:

This video:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x563757

This article and esp. its links:
http://climateprogress.org/2011/03/14/third-explosion-reported-3-cooling-systems-failing-3-meltdowns-cant-be-ruled-out-spent-fuel-risk-also-great/#more-44532


Excerpt:The pools “contain very large concentrations of radioactivity, can catch fire, and are in much more vulnerable buildings,” he warns. If the pools lose their inflow of circulating cooling water, the water in the pools will evaporate. If the level of water drops to five or six feet above the spent fuel, Alvarez calculates, the release of radioactivity “could be life-threatening near the reactor building.” Since the total amount of long-lived radioactivity in the pool is at least five times that in the reactor core, a catastrophic release would mean “all bets are off,” he says.

[cbdo2007]

28. Please explain to us what this would mean for someone living in Northern California??

See, people like to ramble off how bad the situation is and make it sound like in another 2 weeks the Earth is going to look like the Moon....but realistically, even if what you described happens it isn't going to have an effect on the Calif coast.

[dixiegrrrrl]

31. If you say it won't have an effect, people in Ca can choose whether to accept that.

[Name removed]

32. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[snappyturtle]

29. Here's a link to an Alternet article that I think you may find of interest.

http://www.alternet.org/story/150268/nuclear_experts%3A_japan_nuclear_disaster_unprecedented_--_no_way_to_know_about_us_impact?akid=6668.259892.DmTZCQ&rd=1&t=3


....Impact on U.S. Unknown

[NV Whino]

30. Can I have your house?

I'm too old to care.

Realistically, if the the radiation hits CA, it will be in such small doses that we wouldn't see repercussions for years or decades to come. Not good for young people. For me, meh, I'm gonna be dead anyway.

[Zorra]

33. I'm so sorry that you even have to think about this.

That I have to think about this. We all have better things to think about than being poisoned by radioactivity coming from thousands of miles away. I really hope you don't have to leave your home.

If the danger does not accelerate much more, maybe we can all get together and think about how we are going to end nuclear energy production so that we never have to think about this again.

Good luck, maybe tomorrow I'll be wondering where I can go to avoid a radiation cloud too.

[slackmaster]

36. You should wrap your house in Visquine and duct tape immediately

Please post pics.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

37. I live in SF --

Am I worried? Yes, a little bit but I do realize that the radiation would have to get good and high into the air and of significant amount before it really makes its way here.

I am choosing to take this incident as am opportunity to restock my earthquake kit, go around my house to make sure everything is secured, and update my emergency plan. I fear an earthquake here more than I do any radiation from Japan.

[JuniperLea]

38. It is "probably" not worth getting nervous about...

But since you live on the CA coast (as do I) it's always a good idea to have supplies in the event of an earthquake. If adding a little more to the supply right now, or doing some extra reading up on disaster preparedness, makes you feel a little more secure, go for it and don't let any of these asshats tell you otherwise. It's not a waste of time, it gives you something to focus on, and it could very easily save your life since you live in CA where we rock and roll all the time... you just never know when we're going to have "The Big One."

FWIW, I don't believe any of the crap we're being fed either.

[jeff47]

39. You could find out some for yourself

First, the actual health dangers:
The dangers from a plant like the one having problems in Japan is Iodine-131 and Strontium-90.

I-131 Short version: Not dangerous unless it's incorporated into your body. The normal method of preventing that is to take significant doses of "regular" iodine. You will literally piss out the radioactive stuff, since your body won't need it.

Strontium-90 is again dangerous if it's incorporated into your body. Your body can mistake Sr-90 for Calcium, and incorporate it into your bones. Which is why some victims end up needing bone marrow transplants. Again, doses of calcium will help prevent you from incorporating Sr-90, but it's not as effective as in the iodine case.

But, more importantly, is there a reason to believe those health dangers will come to pass?
Well, more googling that can help lessen your fears is to look up maps for the fallout from Chernobyl. In that particular disaster, the graphite fire was putting tons of radioactive soot into the atmosphere. So the situation in Japan is nowhere near as bad. But fallout from that incident didn't cause detectable health problems 5,000 miles away, the approximate distance from you to the nuclear plant in Japan. That's a lot of space for the radioactive material to dissipate to the point where it's not a problem.

[yellowcanine]

40. I would say this isn't even close to the the risk from atmosphreric nuke tests.

And we appear to have survived those with little ill effect. And I even ate the snow when they told us not to. I turn 60 on Saturday and I haven't gotten cancer yet. So I am guessing it is no biggie.