90% of Libya in Rebel Hands

[RandySF]

Commentary: So can Ms. Palin tell us now how we are failing on Libya?


The LAT reports that the rebellion against Muammar Qaddafi’s 41-year dictatorship in Libya headed toward an end-game on Wednesday, as Misurata, the country’s third-largest city (pop. 600,000), fell to the opposition. Significantly, Misurata is in the west of the country, where support for Qaddafi had been stronger. It is only 100 miles east of the capital, Tripoli.

Most of the country stretching from the outskirts of Tripoli east toward Egypt is now in the hands of popular committees allied with local security forces that have defected from the dictator. Even to Tripoli’s west, the rebellion had spread to some small towns. Qaddafi is increasingly left only with a sullen and sanguinary Tripoli, about 1 million people, where the streets are ghostly and marauding security forces hotrod it through the streets, sometimes firing indiscriminately.

Aljazeera Arabic is making the point that a lot hinges on the Libyan tribes’ response to the crisis. The reporter says that the officer corps is actually an assemblage of tribal notables cultivated by Qaddafi over the years, and in the end tribal loyalties may win out. The BBC concurs.


http://www.juancole.com/2011/02/90-of-libya-in-rebel-hands.html

[donco]

1. It might be a good time for Qaddafi

to pick a spot In the sand for his grave.Surely no one will grant him asylum.

[AndyTiedye]

2. If Qaddafi Wanted to Really Mess with the Powers that Be

He could do it by turning himself in to the International Criminal Court in the Hague




They would convict him of his crimes, of course, but his testimony would incriminate and embarrass others.

AFAIK, the ICC does not impose the death penalty, so he would be sent here:


If he stays in Libya, he will eventually be torn limb-from-limb by an angry mob.

[Selatius]

3. If he is going down, he may give a fuck you to the rest of the world and blow up the pipelines.

Sort of how Saddam set on fire all the oil fields in Kuwait when his troops were retreating in 1991. It will hammer the oil markets and drive gasoline prices even higher.

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. That was the post from an analyst yesterday

he ran out of time to do that about 36 hours ago... unless he uses fighter aircraft, but the AF bases are no longer under his control. That is why those reports are gone.

Oh and having watched some very graphic videos, he did... 20 mm cannon is not something you want to get hit by.

[tekisui]

5. And the rumors on the internet are that he has hundreds of tons of mustard gas

at his disposal that he may use as a final fuck you.