Obama 2012 support slips; Now, any generic Republican ties him

[onehandle]

Source: LA Times

President Obama's done a lot of talking recently about Winning the Future. Trouble is, he's not. Politically. At this moment -- 57% of the way through a first term with only 628 days left until the 2012 presidential election -- the Democrat can only tie any conceivable Republican candidate. The GOP doesn't even need a frontrunner to catch the incumbent of the most powerful political office in the world. No wonder Obama's bringing fresh blood into the White House and shipping out aides to kick-start the billion-dollar campaign back in Chicago.

A new Gallup Poll finds Obama a little worse off in that generic presidential ballot category this year than he was last year at this time. And -- the new Gallup numbers show Obama significantly behind the same standing of his Republican predecessor, that Texas guy who still refuses to reciprocate Obama's criticism of his two terms.

Last February Obama led a generic Republican 44-42. This February, after the invisible "Recovery Summer" and Democrats' historic midterm election shellacking, any Republican ties Obama at 45-45. At this same calendrical point in George W. Bush's first term, the Republican led any Democrat 47-39. And Bush went on to win a second term against a Massachusetts senator who docks his yacht in Rhode Island. (Anyone remember how Bush won that year? He took the 20 electoral votes of Ohio, which explains Obama's frequent forays there.)

Gallup's numbers show Obama maintaining his voter strength among blacks. Women still prefer him more than men do. But the youth vote, so crucial to the Democratic ticket last time, is evaporating. Going into the 2008 election Obama had 63% of the registered voters aged 18 to 34. Today, he's got only 51%. Likewise, Obama's support among 35-to-54-year-olds has crumbled from 53% in 2008 to 43% today.

Read more: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2011/02/obama-tied-with-no-name-republican-for-2012.html

[Bozita]

1. Good thing none of the GOPers have risen to the level of generic

The bar is high.

[alllyingwhores]

27. Even Obama himself, who for all intents and purposes, is a generic Repulican

[displacedvermoter]

30. I like that!!!

[Courtesy Flush]

37. Why can't we upvote comments, like on Reddit? +1

[Vincardog]

2. Maybe needs to remember who brung him and quit thinking of Liberals as Fking retarded

IN Short he should start ACTING like a DEMOCRAT

[SammyWinstonJack]

4. +1000000!

:applause:

[Fearless]

22. ^ What they said! ^

[Wilms]

3. In other words, he's indistinguishable from a generic Repub.

While obviously not entirely true, a lot of us have been saying just that.

Let Obama figure out if he likes that or not.

[Vidar]

12. That's it: granted, he's better than the tea baggers & nut cases,

but no different from the reasonable, generic Republicans.

[Wilms]

15. Hmmm. So now they're "reasonable"?

How Third Wayward.

[Vidar]

24. One or two of them, as opposed to twenty or thirty on our side.

[Wilms]

29. You're quite right, there! n/t

[avaistheone1]

14. Mission Accomplished

With Obama playing to the republicans most of his administration who is really surprised at this point?

When given a choice between a Democrat playing a republican, or the real thing - voters will always choose the real republican.

[Sherman A1]

20. Well Said!

I actually believe that it is more true than not.

[BlueIris]

5. Shocking.

Not.

[leftynyc]

6. Incumbents ALWAYS poll

worse against generic candidates. Put up a puke name, any name and he/she gets crushed by Obama. This is a moronic story.

[RZM]

10. Exactly

We see this every single election cycle, yet people still put stock in it. 'Generic candidate' has no baggage, no history, no liabilities . . . nothing. Maybe this has a sliver of news value, but not much more than that.

[former9thward]

11. Anyone who has been involved in political campaigns knows the error of your thinking.

Yes, if you put up a name against an incumbent it will not do as well as the 'generic'. But that it because of lack of name recognition or familiarity with the candidate. Most people that are polled are not political junkies like those of us who post on boards. We are familiar with potential candidates. Average voter is not. It is a problem when a generic is tied or is better than the incumbent because that shows a potential to vote against that incumbent once a full fledged campaign begins.

[leftynyc]

13. No - that's not it

As pointed out above, a generic candidate has no downside, no past, no votes to explain, to affairs to dodge. They are the PERFECT candidate. Put a name in and the support nosedives.

[former9thward]

19. Now I know you have never been in political campaigns at least on the polling side.

A person who is polled may want to vote in the next election for a R or a D but is not sure of the candidates who are going to run. He may want to vote against the incumbent no matter what the party but is not sure of who to vote for. When presented with a name the person polled may not know that person or be completely familiar with them so they will not say they would vote for them. But once they become familiar they gravitate towards them. Yes there are downsides to any candidate but there are upsides to them for people that are not familiar. If they have an intention to vote against the incumbent past record is not going to stop them.

I don't know if you are a DUer who dismisses polls you don't like and heralds ones you do like. I saw that time and time again on this board in the run up to the 2010 elections.

[leftynyc]

25. I don't dismiss polls

but I don't live by them either. Too much has to do with who is polling, the way the question is asked, who is being polled, etc. I don't work for a pollster but have been following politics for 35 of my 50 years and see this every election. "No Name Candidate" always does better than a named one. Always.

[Cheap_Trick]

7. And yet according to a FOX News poll just the other day

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/021111_2012_election_web.pdf

Obama beat ALL current contenders. Romney by 7%, Huckabee by 8%, Palin by 21%, Gingich and Jeb Bush both by 20%.

I guess the republics need to find Mr. Generic, STAT.

[Kall]

8. Generic Republican tied with Generic Republican.

Quelle surprise.

[bowens43]

9. You beat me to it.......

[Kolesar]

16. Go away...eom

[Kall]

23. Give me a break

Extension of tax cuts for the rich.

Cutting help for home heating for the poor during the winter.

Defend away.

[seabeckind]

17. Not particularly surprised

Where are those jobs Mr Obama?

US Secy (Geithner) wants H-1B visa programme expanded:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4736980

[seabeckind]

18. Oh, and in other articles

Matt Taibbi: Why Isn't Wall Street in Jail?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x588730

[quakerboy]

21. The problem, as I see it

is not whether Obama will be reelected. Even with as many of the left angry with him as are, even with slipping in some polls, I still feel safe in predicting he will win. He will do better against any one of the shitstains that the pubs actually have to offer than against a generic pub. So, with the proviso that the future is always open to surprises, I think Obama will win.

The more important question is coattails. Can he bring back the house? Can he even hold the senate? Thats the problem that we have facing us.

There may be another SCOTUS member step down in the next presidential term. What chance that Obama can get a liberal or even a moderate past a Republican held senate? I can easily see them holding a nomination up and waiting 4 years with an empty seat rather than letting anyone to the left of Thomas on the court.

Given how the President has dealt with things so far, what are the chances he holds the line on any single issue of importance to me or most of those I know? Holding the presidency sure looks to become basically useless in that situation. I suppose a holding action is worth something, but I have trouble believing that President Obama would fight even under that circumstance. But even if he does, then what, and can we hold out long enough to survive in the mean time?

[struggle4progress]

26. Hard to tell if that means anything. From TPM for 14 Feb:

Obama Job Approval (US) Approve 48.0%, Disapprove 51.0% / Rasmussen
Obama Job Approval (US) Approve 48.0%, Disapprove 41.0% / CBS
Obama Job Approval (US) Approve 48.0%, Disapprove 44.0% / Gallup
~snip~
US-Pres '12 Bush R 36.0%, Obama D 50.0% / PPP (D)
US-Pres '12 Obama D 48.0%, Trump R 34.0% / PPP (D)
US-Pres '12 Obama D 48.0%, Paul I 39.0% / PPP (D)
US-Pres '12 Obama D 46.0%, Romney R 41.0% / PPP (D)
US-Pres '12 Gingrich R 40.0%, Obama D 49.0% / PPP (D)
US-Pres '12 Obama D 52.0%, Palin R 40.0% / PPP (D)
US-Pres '12 Huckabee R 44.0%, Obama D 47.0% / PPP (D)
Jeb Bush Favorability (US) Favorable 29.0%, Unfavorable 37.0% / PPP (D)
John McCain Favorability Favorable 40.0%, Unfavorable 46.0% / PPP (D)
Donald Trump Favorability (US) Favorable 27.0%, Unfavorable 56.0% / PPP (D)
Ron Paul Favorability Favorable 24.0%, Unfavorable 45.0% / PPP (D)
Mitt Romney Favorability Favorable 33.0%, Unfavorable 42.0% / PPP (D)
Newt Gingrich Favorability Favorable 27.0%, Unfavorable 52.0% / PPP (D)
Sarah Palin Favorability Favorable 34.0%, Unfavorable 56.0% / PPP (D)
Mike Huckabee Favorability Favorable 36.0%, Unfavorable 30.0% / PPP (D)
Obama Job Approval (US) Approve 49.0%, Disapprove 46.0% / PPP (D)
Obama Job Approval (US) Approve 51.0%, Disapprove 44.0% / Quinnipiac

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/

So on average Obama is something like 49% approval 45% disapproval
The average for the listed Rs is something like 31% favorable 45% unfavorable
The hypothetical line-ups here average Obama 49% Republican 39%

Looks like about 45% dislike everybody on average but people generally like Obama more than named Rs and would vote for him over named Rs

[last_texas_dem]

28. It's a shame for the Repugs that they can't run Generic Republican.

Instead they have to run Pandering Extremist Cretin Wingnut Real Republican. At this point, Obama has a healthy lead on every one of those jerks.

[we can do it]

31. This Is What Happens When You Act Like a Fucking REPUBLICAN

[Godhumor]

32. This is the blog of the Times and not news

Certainly can tell from the text that it isn't actual reporting.

As others have said, generics poll stronger than actuals, because they can be whatever a vote imagines to be an ideal. Obama has a history whereas a generic does note. Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight does a pretty good job of looking at the actual current sleight of the supposed Republican contenders and how they're a pretty weak bunch.

[Tx4obama]

33. Here's an article with polls that show that Obama is doing great against Palin

Did you see those polls last week that said that if Obama has to run against Palin then Obama will win Tennessee and Georgia?

And also, excerpt:
"The polls are the latest findings to show that Palin would likely get blown out in a general election against Obama. In recent weeks, polls found Palin up by just one point in the Republican strongholds of Texas and and Nebraska, while trailing by seven in another red state, South Dakota. No Democratic presidential nominee has carried South Dakota or Nebraska since 1964, when President Lyndon Johnson won all but six states."

Article: http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/02/polls-show-obama-leading-palin-in-two-more-states-he-lost-in-2008.php

I think that is mighty telling ;)

[treestar]

34. Only 678 days?

:rofl:

[quinnox]

35. Strange, when I hear Obama supporters say he is a

shoe-in come 2012, and this poll shows otherwise. :shrug:

[crim son]

36. Yabbut when it comes time to vote, what choice do we have?

That's his thinking and that is why he doesn't give a shit what we think about him. How low will he have to go before he gets worried? Or does he even care?

[Courtesy Flush]

38. Not one Republican will vote for Obama

No matter how much he panders to them, he will never win their votes. Ever heard of playing to your base???