Saudi Oil Production and Reserves - Reasons Behind Wikileaks Concerns

[marmar]

from the Oil Drum:




Saudi Oil Production and Reserves - Reasons Behind Wikileaks Concerns
Posted by Gail the Actuary on February 9, 2011 - 11:54am


The UK Guardian published an article yesterday titled WikiLeaks cables: Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on prices, talking about the possibility that as soon as 2012, world oil production may begin to decline because of "peak oil". Saudi Arabia may not be able to raise production as much as claimed, and its reserves may be overstated by 40%. Leanan has put together a post with more about the cables. The Wikileak cables can be found here or here. In this post, we provide a few graphs, plus some links to (and excerpts from) prior posts by Oil Drum staff members about Saudi Arabia's true situation.

Saudi Arabia tells us that they have lots of oil, but if we look at graphs of their historical production, there is nothing that looks like an upward trend. In fact, recent production is lower than it was in the late 1970s and early 1980s. This is a graph of Saudi oil production, consumption, and amount of net exports, from Energy Exports Databrowser.



Exports, in green, are down because Saudi Arabia is consuming more and more of its own oil, so there is less available for others. This graph doesn't fit well with what we have been told. ..............(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7465

[dipsydoodle]

1. They can only sell what they've got once

so why should they increase production ?

[Teaser]

2. should doesn't enter into it. CAN'T does.

they have no spare capacity.

[dipsydoodle]

3. It is not possible

for you to judge their motives.

Mention has been recently that worldwide stocks are so high does it really matter how much they produce at present.