Into The Power Vacuum

[ProSense]

Into The Power Vacuum

David Kurtz

I've seen a lot of references today to "Mubarak's thugs." CNN has a good rundown on who instigated the violence in Cairo and points the finger in the general direction of pro-Mubarak, state-supported provocateurs. What you might call "inside agitators."

I don't have much doubt that that's broadly true. But it may miss a more important point. Mubarak could have cracked down on the protestors at any time over the last few days. But the violence didn't erupt until Mubarak's statement last night that he will not seek another term this year. Today's clashes were probably not the regime's final death rattle, but rather the beginning of the struggle to determine who emerges on top in the post-Mubarak era.

Mubarak's concession created a power vacuum within which an array of competing forces will now battle it out, including still-powerful elements of the Mubarak regime, the broader ruling elites (including the opposition), the military, etc. *Late Update: For a thorough treatment of these competing forces, see this blog post by Paul Amar (thanks to TPM Reader DB for the tip.)

The proximate target of today's violence was anti-regime protestors, but the ultimate goal of those coordinating the violence is to improve their positions in the post-Mubarak Egypt. That's not a defense of Mubarak. It's an observation that there are many competing interests swirling through Tahrir Square.

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[ProSense]

1. No comment? n/t

[northoftheborder]

2. Paul Amar's essay very informative

[ProSense]

4. Very.

It would be great if this revolution could be accurately reported as pro-Mubarak and anti-Mubarak, but the reality is more nuanced.

[leftstreet]

3. LOL The last few days have shown us just who has the power in Egypt

THE PEOPLE !!

So now the spin starts, WHO WILL BE IN CHARGE !!?? completely ignoring the strength and determination of the Egyptian people...

[ProSense]

5. "THE PEOPLE !!" What does that mean?

The people are Egyptians, and while they want Mubarak gone, they're likely not monolithic in who they want to replace him.

[leftstreet]

6. "POWER VACUUM" What does that mean?

There's been no power vacuum the last few days.

The global capitalists aren't monolithic in who they'd want to replace him either

[ProSense]

7. "There's been no power vacuum the last few days." You're right

there is a revolution "party" going on.

Revolutions are dangerous and can spin out of control. People die. <<< Power vacuum.

On edit: They can also be transformative, but that doesn't make the interim less chaotic.

[leftstreet]

8. omg You're referring to Egyptian citizen resistance as a "party?"

omg

:beer:

[ProSense]

9. No, it's not a party,

take a look at the news (from whichever source you prefer), and there is clearly a power vacuum.