'Plan B: The army gets rid of Mubarak in a people-mandated coup d'etat.'

[seafan]

Pepe Escobar writes in the Asia Times:

February 3, 2011

.....

United States President Barack Obama sends a "secret" emissary to tell President Hosni Mubarak to abstain from seeking a sixth term in the next elections - on the same day that almost 2 million people yell in the streets for him to just go. The president of Egypt then duly hits state television to announce to the Egyptian people what the US president told him to do.

Predictably, the street exploded in anger. Al-Jazeera (yes, the revolution will be televised ...) just ran a split screen, no comments, with the sound of the street in Cairo and Alexandria for all the world to hear. "Leave." "Leave, have some dignity." "Get out."

.....

Obama's "messenger" in the latest Mubarak pantomime was Frank Wisner, a former diplomat and former AIG executive very close to the Mubarak system oligarchy, and whose brother Graham has represented their extensive business interests. Wisner has lately been a de facto lobbyist for the Mubarak regime among Middle East experts in Washington - unlike, for instance, the bipartisan Egypt Working Group led by former National Security Council member Elliott Abrams and Michele Dunne from the Carnegie Endowment. Without a mere hint of irony, the US State Department had announced that Wisner would press the Mubarak system to "embrace broad economic and political changes" - the same ones never embraced over the past three decades.

.....

Arguably the most exhilarating aspect of the Egyptian revolution is that it is not about a power group trying to topple a rival power group. The street is not anointing anybody at the moment. ElBaradei might be a popular choice, but only as a strictly interim leader to get the paralyzed country back on track and set up a transparent system for free and fair elections.

Plan A, what the street is clamoring for - and that's non-negotiable - is that Mubarak goes now - not towards the end of the year as he has now promised - along with all his minions in government, and then the transitional period is on – headed by ElBaradei.

Plan B - a still not totally discarded possibility - is that the army gets rid of Mubarak in a people-mandated coup d'etat. The army installs a provisional military government and sets up a date for parliamentary and presidential elections. This would be a sort of "Turkish" gambit (the Turkish army already did it, years ago). That would do wonders for the army's popular standing.

.....

Escobar describes the 4 major players inside the Egyptian military establishment, and the likelihood that there is a split among them.

Lieutenant General Omar Suleiman, military intelligence chief, Mubarak's suave torturer and now designated as vice president. His health is not exactly good. No way the street will accept him as a "democratic" reformer.

Air Marshal Ahmed Shafiq, minister for civil aviation, and now designated prime minister. Like Mubarak, he hails from the relatively elite, pampered air force. Zero popular charisma.

Lieutenant General Sami Annan, chief of staff of the army. He commands 468,000 troops, a mix of staff officers and oceans of conscripts. That's the branch closest to the Egyptian street. And that's where the statement about the army not shooting people in the streets came from.

Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi, defense minister. He commands 60,000 Republican Guards. A Pentagon darling. Got a long call from Pentagon supremo, Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Tuesday.

.....

It seems that the Army will have to go to Mubarak and escort him out of power.



Annan looks to be holding the strongest hand in light of troop numbers he commands and his force's reputation for being closest to those peacefully protesting on the street.


As violence is erupting in Tahrir Square today, fomented by the sudden arrival of his pro-government supporters, Mubarak is taking the people of Egypt down, together with himself and his exploding 30-year dictatorial regime.



For the sake of the Egyptian people, Mubarak must be swiftly removed from power.

[L. Coyote]

1. Obama is not the center of the Middle east universe!

Obama is having a difficult time keeping policy up with events.

[bemildred]

2. Very interesting, thanks. nt

[dipsydoodle]

3. Lieutenant General Omar Suleiman

is the USA's main torture / rendition asociate.

[blindpig]

4. What we are seeing is the counter to 'Plan B'.

Mubarak is trying to force the generals to act in his interests by creating a 'security issue' that they cannot ignore. The general's problem is that they cannot rely upon their conscript army to fire upon the people, as much as they would like them to.

[robinlynne]

6. The army, which suypported the protesters could stop the provacateurs. The numbers are small.

I don't understand why they did not stop them?

[blindpig]

7. Who is the army?

Is it the generals or the conscripts? Bet you a quarter that those military forces on the scene are some more 'reliable' 'elite' units, the conscripts are kept away from the scene and out of the loop. Very dicey.

I think what it's going to take is one or a couple of 'colonels' to say "fuck this shit" and bring his unit into action on behalf of the people. I hope.

[Ganja Ninja]

5. Replacing General Mubarak with another General.

Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss