Will Mubarak's regime be replaced by a democracy or by

[pnwmom]

a fundamentalist regime, as in Iran? Some of us may be celebrating prematurely -- just as we did during the fall of the Shah.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/parvez-sharma/egypt-is-burning-and-it-i_b_815605.html


I must also be clear. At this point -- on this, the longest Egyptian night in a generation, perhaps longer -- most Western self-professed Islam/Middle East and other assorted pundits have no clue about the harsh reality of Egyptian life. Many have probably never taken a walk down Manshiyat Nasser, the largest slum in Cairo. This is why they do not realize that this "revolution" is not about social networking and its success. The majority of the 80 million people of Egypt live in abject poverty. They do not even have cell-phones let alone smartphones like the iPhone or the Droid. They go to kiosks to make calls. A pretty substantial number of them have NEVER used the internet and do not have email accounts: the complicated mechanisms of self-promotion and information gathering and sharing on social networks is not a part of their lives -- they have never had the money or the resources to get access to this other world that often lives in the relatively more affluent neighborhoods like Zamalek or Garden City or Mohandaseen -- all within some walking distance of where the dissent started in Tahrir Square.

SNIP

They are fighting for very basic human rights. They are fighting for affordable food. They are fighting for dignity. They are fighting for accountability. They are fighting to somehow improve the non-existent financial opportunities in their lives.

They are not interested in Mohamed ElBaradei's Nobel Prize or his rather recent and opportunist political ambitions. Most of them have not really seen him and have no idea of what he has been up to for the last three decades as they have suffered. They are angry that he decided to show up just last night and started posturing immediately as the potential savior and the best person to lead them into their uncertain future. Many here in the West would be surprised to know that a lot of these simple folk would actually prefer the "Muslim Brotherhood" taking over. At least they recognize the "Islam Light" the Brotherhood has honed to perfection after a pretty radical and conservative beginning with an ideologue like Hasan al-Banna.

SNIP

[RandomThoughts]

1. Thanks for correcting that media narrative.

[xchrom]

2. Unrec

[peacebird]

6. why? I am interested in all angles of the Egyptian story as it unfolds...

I can believe some see this man as an oppourtunist - while all I have read of him in US news seems to say he is a competent and reasonable man who would make a good leader in the interim. But ultimately it is up to the Egyptians to decide.

I don't understand why you would unrec an article just because it offers a different perspective...? But perhaps I am misunderstanding your reasons and intent?

[stevenleser]

10. Because that person doesnt like the OP and doesnt like the ideas expressed...

but it has nothing to do with the quality of those ideas expressed.

I have no idea what the truth is on the ground in Egypt, nor does virtually anyone posting here.

[leftstreet]

3. Oh gawd. "these simple folk"

:banghead:

[Cleita]

4. No one can predict right now. Their future is really on

tender hooks and it could go very badly with Islamic fundamentalists taking over, or the military instituting another dictatorship as easily as it could be the beginning of a new and democratic nation.

[sufrommich]

5. I remember the fall of Iran, as I'm sure many here do. No one

was disillusioned that the Ayatollahs were there to begin a new renaissance age.

[snagglepuss]

8. Than you didn't know people on the far Left. nt

[harun]

7. Unrec, Mubarak is the reason we have the fundamentalists.

[pnwmom]

16. Fundamentalists existed before Mubarak. n/t

[azurnoir]

9. yep John Negroponte was interviewed by Candy Crowley this morning

and that was the general tone of their conversation as well

[Turborama]

11. Any mention of Indonesia 1998 on US media yet? Or are they just going on and on about Iran 1979?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x290024

[justiceischeap]

12. I can't remember who tweeted it today but it was from someone who's tweeting from Cairo

And he said the speculation about a fundamentalist regime implies that the people or the Middle East aren't capable of creating a democracy and that line of thinking is really offensive.

I think he made a very good point.

[cynatnite]

13. I think they are perfectly capable....

I'm just not convinced that they're the ones that will get the steering wheel if the time comes.

[Turborama]

14. That is a very good point

And I am always saddened whenever I see some here openly perpetuate that offensiveness.

[pnwmom]

20. To not even acknowledge the possibility that the revolution

could take a hard right turn seems very naive to me.

[Turborama]

22. To only focus on what happened in Iran in 1979 and ignoring what happened in Indonesia in 1998

seems very naive to me.

[pnwmom]

23. I'm not focusing only on Iran. I've just used them as a recent example

in the Middle East of what can happen.

I'd love for the democrats to win. But I've learned enough history to know that revolutions don't always go in the direction most people would want.

[pnwmom]

18. No it doesn't. When there is a power vacuum, anything can happen.

Many revolutions have started off to the benefit of the people but didn't end up achieving those goals.

[TexasProgresive]

15. THere is absolutly no way to know

When a revolution happens the final outcome is always a surprise.

[pnwmom]

17. I agree. It's way to early to know how it's all going to turn out.

All we can do is hope and -- in the case of our diplomats -- work for the best.

[Avalux]

19. Meh. Anything can happen. I think it's different this time though.

When I read articles like this, I think it's been written to stoke fear and thus protect the status quo.

[Baclava]

21. Those that control the tanks and military will control the country

I'd keep an eye on those generals.