GOP's "Somebody Else" Wins

[kpete]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/11/07/1033925/-ABC-Washington-Post-poll:-Most-Republicans-still-want-somebody-other-than-Mitt-Romney?via=blog_1

[Ship of Fools]

1. heeheeheeheeheehee

:rofl:

[Pab Sungenis]

2. Unless the "Somebody elsers" can unite behind a single candidate

or, at most, be divided between two, then Romney has it.

In a nine person race, you can get a plurality with as little as 17%. Romney's support has not shifted at all, so 25% appears to be his floor. That's good enough to win in anything over a three person race.

Also, whoever is/are the united "Someone Else" needs to win or nearly win in Iowa, since Romney will win New Hampshire and if he wins both that will lend inevitability the same way it did for McCain.

[Old and In the Way]

5. Could be his ceiling, too.

It looks to me this will lead to a brokered convention. If so, this could get very ugly for whatever candidate manages to get a majority of convention ballots. While the establishment GOP is going to rally around Mitt, I'm not sure that the Teapublican primary voter is going to...

[Jim Lane]

7. Rules changes since 2008 make that unification less necessary.

I'm not sure about the details, but I think that the Republican Party now prohibits winner-take-all rules in the early primaries (maybe those held before April 1 or some such date). That means that, at least in those states, Romney can't emulate McCain's path of getting a plurality (while several extreme right-wingers divide the batshit crazy vote) and emerging with all of the delegates.

Every four years, some analysts get all excited about the prospect of a brokered convention in one of the major parties. It would be so much fun to cover. In reality, the trend is toward earlier effective resolution of the race, not toward a convention that actually decides anything. Nevertheless, maybe this is the cycle when it really happens. If Romney remains stuck in the 25% range but no one emerges as the clear ABM (Anyone But Mitt) candidate, then it's at least conceivable that there'd be no clear majority for anyone.

What would happen? Perhaps the non-Mitts could coalesce, e.g., a Perry-Bachmann ticket with promises of Cabinet posts for various runners-up. Perhaps there'd be a Grand Coalition, joining Mitt with a conservative, one now in the race or someone else (Romney-DeMint). Or maybe the hypothetical someone else (DeMint? Pence?) would step forward and be the nominee, uniting all the conservatives behind him because there's not enough time for the scrutiny that would burst his bubble.

Back here in the real world, alas, I bet Romney will have it wrapped up by the end of April. We can dream, though.

[MindandSoul]

3. That's funny! They probably need to appeal to Jesus Christ to be that

"somebody else," since, it's pretty clear that the rest of the GOP candidates cannot win!

[Shadowflash]

4. Jesus wouldn't have a prayer.

What with his 'give to the poor', 'heal the sick', 'render unto Caesar' and other liberal positions, He wouldn't be anywhere close to winning. they would call Jesus a commie socialist and shout him down when he attempted to speak.

[DenverDad]

6. Not to mention trying to produce a birth certificate.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

8. LOL! That is spot on!

:rofl: