http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2011/10/20/emerging-market-bonds-more-stable-than-treasurys/Even as markets get pushed back and forth by uncertainties about Europe, high-quality emerging-market debt should outperform U.S. Treasury bonds – considered one of the safest assets in the world, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said.
“There was a fear that EM debt was just like every other risky volatile asset, but this is not the case for high quality EM sovereign bonds,” analyst Jane Brauer wrote in a note Thursday.
From late July until early October, yields on a basket of eight, high-quality, 10-year bonds have fallen marginally – 18 basis points, or 0.18 percentage points, compared to Treasurys, which dropped 104 basis points. The basket includes debt from Mexico, Brazil, Russia, Turkey and Indonesia, the Philippines and Colombia.
“EM high quality bonds are relatively immune to the volatile risk-on/off moves inherent in US rates,” she wrote. “At some point, with a much higher US Treasury yield, the shrinking spread pickup of EM will be so irrational that prices will adjust. But there is still room to pick up yield and reduce volatility now, which is the goal of any real money investor.”