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The real question for a person living in, or near, such a forest, is how likely is a fire, and how severe will the fire be when it occurs.
The question of frequency and severity are a factor of the conditions in and around the forest itself. Extremely hot Summer days, the density of the undergrowth, drought conditions and high winds are all factors which will dictate the frequency and severity of the fires that must occur at some point.
What will trigger the fire is a question that is almost impossible to predict, but it will be either a natural event, like lightning, or a human event like a careless camper, or on rare occasions, an arsonist.
To reiterate: The certainty that a fire will happen is 100%. The conditions dictate how frequently fires will occur and how bad they will be.
In any gathering of humans greater than one, violence is inevitable. We humans just seem to always be itching for a fight. The frequency and severity of that violence is dependent on conditions such as the density of people, easy access to weapons, (whether the weapons are improvised like fists and chairs, or specific purpose, like firearms), the presence of alcohol/drugs, the emotional agitation of the crowd, and the presence/absence of mitigating forces (cool heads and cops).
Any bartender who's been in the business a while can tell you that alcohol and heated opinions loudly and provocatively expressed, create conditions unlikely to end well. Once those heated expressions rise to the level of name calling, the chance of violence approaches 100%.
This is why a wise bartender, even when he is backed up by a formidable bouncer, tries to control conditions so as to keep the chance of violence as low as possible. They cut people off when they become intoxicated. They steer conversations to other topics. They speak calmly, but firmly, to folks in danger of losing their cool, perhaps jollying them into a change of subject with humor, or a plate of chicken wings on the house. People known to not like each other are served at opposite ends of the bar. As a last resort, they ask the person to leave, and if necessary, call in the bouncer (a risky move since this can actually provoke a violent reaction from an irrational individual).
A bartender can't prevent violence from ever breaking out, but he can manipulate many conditions to lower the frequency and severity of the outbreaks that will occur in the course of serving mood-altering substances to human beings.
And such is true for the current political discourse.
By the very nature of human behavior, especially when it involves politics, violence is inevitable. When it occurs, the blame for a violent act rests squarely on the shoulders of the perpetrator of the act.
But, and this is a very important "but", WE, collectively (as human beings, citizens, Democrats, Republicans, liberals, conservatives, Carolina fans, Trekkies, etc) and individually (as elected officials, leaders of political parties, candidates for office, pundits, bloggers, editors, news commentators, political commentators, etc) ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR the conditions that directly affect the frequency of violence and the severity.
When we choose to demonize and dehumanize those we disagree with, suggest violence, imply violence, or incite violence, we are not to blame for any individual act of violence that occurs (unless we commit the act), but we ARE to blame for the frequency and severity of those acts.
Like it or not, the reality is that we live on a small planet, and at six billion plus (and growing), we are packed in together pretty tightly.
We all want the same things: Love, respect, a roof over our heads, food on the table, a future for our children, and someone to hold our hand when we die.
How we discuss these issues is up to us. We can talk about it reasonably, like adults, or we can scream at each other until someone loses it.
It's all fun and games until someone's nine year-old child is shot to death.
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