The coming weather

[Are_grits_groceries]

Katia is heading WNW now.
It appears to be heading for the NC area at this point.
There is a low moving in to the SE. Lows tend to pull storms toward them.
There is a strong high behind it. It could help block Katia or move it eastward depending on how fast it and Katia move.
The water off the east coast is still very warm, but it starts cooling around NY/NJ.
There are eleventy billion variables at work, and all of them can't be detected.
NOAA said they needed more detailed data from more local stations to improve their forecasts. They are working on it.

FYI

:hide:

[Uben]

1. eleventy billion ?

Around here they are saying it's closer to twelvety billion variables. Your maffamatics are off!

[FSogol]

2. Maffamatics! C'mon, we gotta save the earf!

:-)

[Are_grits_groceries]

7. I was estimating.

:hi:

[Myrina]

3. I heard it was at least a brazillion.

n/t

[Javaman]

4. All those poor Brazilians lost for no reason. Heart breaking. nt

[DLnyc]

5. For those who are interested in more extensive information

The National Weather Service assembles and publishes very extensive and very objective information about these storms:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

Their information on Irene, for example, had it arriving at New York (40.7 N latitude) at a level right between tropical storm and hurricane consistently for at least two days leading up to the actual arrival. Even though the media made some wild claims, the NWS gave clear and objective and, ultimately, correct information all along. Of course they can't predict down to the inch where things will go, so they give confidence bands. The actual track of Irene was, I think, within 10 miles of the track predicted a couple days before. Although it was a Category 3 in the open ocean off of Florida, it was never expected to maintain that strength across land and over colder waters.

They only predict out 5 days. The best thing to do, I think, is see what they are saying a few days from now to see whether this one is headed to NC.

You can see a complete archive of their advisories and discussions here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/index.shtml if you want to understand how accurate their forecasts are and how they evolve over time Generally the closer the time gets, the accurate the prediction will be.

[KurtNYC]

6. Local news here warning of relentless sunshine on the way!

Could be hours and hours of glaring sunlight. Models show that it could be bright enough that people will be required to wear sun glasses, possible SPF 15. This sunshine combined with summer time may lead to shortages of beer and outdoor furniture!

The projected path is for sunlight to start in the east and sweep the entire COUNTRY in a matter of hours!