Hurricane Hype followed by Hurricane Insanity leads to hurricane death.

[ellenrr]

---the author suggests that over-hyping of tornados and hurricanes weakens respect for their danger.
His nightmare scenario is that Irene is so over-hyped, and then another hurricane shows up and is ignored and kills a lot of people.---

"The number of false positives has so cheapened the currency of tornado warnings that few now bother to interrupt their work when one is given."

"Because it is prudent to not respond to every little tropical cyclone twitch (such as Gloria’s jog or Thursday’s wind drop), the Thursday evening forecast was virtually unchanged, the Internet went thermonuclear, and the Weather Channel’s advertising rates skyrocketed. From that point on, it became all Irene, all the time. With this level of noise, the political process has to respond with full mobilization. Hype begets hype."
...
"I see a solution, in all places, in Washington DC, where a group of crackerjack weather forecasters, led Jason Samenow, have set up the Capital Weather Gang (www.capitalweathergang.com). It’s become the go-to group for potentially severe winter storms here (including hurricanes), and, because they are serving a smaller community than, say, NHC, they aren’t under the massive scrutiny of a politicized media. Is it time for similar diversity to develop all over the high-stakes world of tropical cyclones?

Or would that be an abject disaster? Consider if there are five competing hurricane forecasters, four suggesting evacuation while the fifth says “stay put”, and the fifth one is wrong. Surely most people would choose to stay, with disastrous results. Given the nature of the Internet, such an experiment is sure to run in the near future."

http://news.yahoo.com/real-hurricane-irene-renamed-hurricane-hype-021402485.html

[kdmorris]

1. I've been watching Irene since she was a "tropical wave"

The NHC isn't really the one that's hyping Irene. The media takes what they say and twists it. An example is my area (I live in SE Florida and was in the 3 day cone for Irene for a day). The NHC has models that predict where a storm will go and how intense it will be. In my opinion, they do an AMAZING job considering the scrutiny and criticism they are under. As one after the other, the models started turning north, the NHC started issuing statements that the storm was unlikely to hit SE Florida, but until there was model agreement, they couldn't really shift the cone. Eventually the models did come into almost precision agreement and the cone was moved. My husband and I watched the model runs, the recons (planes flying into the storms) and the synoptic (air around the hurricane) patterns and were not too concerned about potential impact. You don't let your guard completely down until the storm passes your latitude.

The media FREAKED out. The people who do not watch storms as closely just heard that we were in the cone and if it comes here it will be CAT 4 or CAT 5... and the end of the world as we know it. People bought stuff they couldn't afford (oddly enough, most of it was the day that the cone eventually shifted away from us).

Next time a storm heads our way - people won't take it seriously. They can't afford to buy stuff (most of which they are trying to return now) every time a storm threatens just to have it go away again and again.

If the media had reported what the NHC was saying about the storm...there would not have been widespread panic down here. I don't have any problem with competition for the NHC, per se, though I would probably continue to see what they are saying... you start getting to know the forecasters after a while. But, if there are 5 such entities saying 5 different things, I think that people would pick the one they wanted to listen to and it could potentially lead to loss of life because of it. Now, if they all did their forecasting off the same models... they generally should all come to the same conclusion.

[ellenrr]

2. I agree about the media. It's shameful how they play on peoples' fears to raise their ratings. n /

[shraby]

3. They've done that since Camille and the horrendous

death toll from that one because people decided to ride her out. After that, they hype it to warn people to get out of the way, hoping it sinks in that those storms are dangerous.

[HysteryDiagnosis]

5. I wonder if they add more little wind arrows to rate it up... I kid of course but you

are right about the drama and the hype.

[Modern_Matthew]

4. They're mainly worried about the surge. The wind speed has nothing to do with the hype. nt

[GreenPartyVoter]

6. I agree. The media hype is driving me crazy. People really aren't

going to heed warnings if the news is always crying, "Wolf!"


Here's what Yahoo News had for me when I opened my browser this morning..

"Footage shows power of Hurricane Irene. Eight people are knocked over by giant waves in Florida as the storm nears the East Coast. Reporter gets drenched."

And the Weather Channel can't tell me enough about some shingles torn loose on a building in NC.


I can't tell how seriously to take this storm because of the way they act.

[kdmorris]

7. I'm not sure what part of Maine you are in

But the coast is under a Tropical Storm Warning at this time. I'm not sure how many other NE tropical systems you've been through, but you can expect very heavy rains/flash flooding, with sustained winds of 39-74 mph and higher gusts. You will likely experience lots of downed trees, with the potential to be without power for an extended period of time. If you live on the Coast, because of the approach of the storm, winds in the leading part of the storm will likely push the storm surge a little more than if it were coming from another. However, because of the approach (over land) it is also likely to weaken more rapidly than if it were to approach from the ocean.

Your biggest areas of concern are being without power and flooding, I believe. If you are ever in doubt about how seriously to take a storm, the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center are both pretty good places to look for (mostly not hyped) storm information.

The National Weather Service outlook for your area - all of Maine (http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Maine&state=ME&site=CAR&textField1=46.82&textField2=-67.9236):
Sunday: Rain, mainly after 11am. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 68. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Sunday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 56. East wind 16 to 21 mph increasing to between 31 and 36 mph. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Monday: Rain likely, mainly before noon. The rain could be heavy at times. Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Windy, with a south wind 34 to 37 mph becoming west 14 to 17 mph. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

National Hurricane Center site (from here you can get to radars and satellites, as well as looking at the advisories that they issue at 2, 5, 8 and 11 (every AM and PM)) :
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Good source of information on preparations and learning about Tropical systems, too.

Stay safe, listen to your local emergency management officials (they have a better handle on things than even I do. If what they say does not match what I say...listen to them. I am just some woman posting on a board) and you should be OK. Just remember not to take chances. You can replace property. You can't replace people.

[GreenPartyVoter]

9. Oh, I'm taking the storm seriously. Just not the talking heads.

[kdmorris]

10. And that is the best way to prepare :) n/t

[GreenPartyVoter]

11. Yep. :^)

[FLPanhandle]

8. The problem is the media is literally getting paid to hype these storms.

The bigger they hype it, the more ratings they get, the more they can charge.

There is no incentive to be accurate, there is lots of incentive to hype.

Corporate media will always hype to make profits higher.

[Lucian]

12. Media hype is really annoying.

That's why it's better to turn off the tv and pay attention to your own judgement.