he hype over Hurricane Irene is overblown, predicts the CEO of Advanced Forecasting Corporation.

[FLPanhandle]

https://www.gplus.com/Hurricanes/Insight/The-storm-cannot-master-its-own-strength#.TlhUMl1vCso

o The demise of Irene has already begun. There is no visible eye. The storm intensity is down to 99 mph. This would be a low-end category 2 or a strong category 1 storm, while 36 hours ago some predicted a catastrophic category 4 storm. Air Force Reserve aircraft have found that Irene's eyewall has collapsed, and the central pressure has risen -- rising pressure means a weakening storm.

o The reduction in storm intensity likely confirms that this storm is not going to be as monstrous as it has been publicly forecast to be.

o Yes, it will be windy. However, north of Delaware most hurricane force winds will very likely be gusts, not sustained winds.

o At Advanced Forecasting Corporation, we are concentrating on the surging waters which typically cause over 85% of the loss of life in hurricanes. We have modeled the following predictions:

1) There will be wind damage over eastern-most North Carolina as well as some storm surge flooding up the Pamlico Sound. Some houses in the Hamptons will be flooded and destroyed. Flooding might occur in New York's Battery Park Subway station and on the FDR Drive since the city could get up to 8 inches of rain. There may be some New England neighborhoods submerged due to rivers overflowing.

2) With 90% confidence, we predict a total damage bill below $1 billion. Unless there is an unexpected secondary or tertiary event, this is not going to be a huge-loss storm.

o Our internal modeling uses genetic algorithms to emphasize the weaknesses of storms. Remember that storms are energy. Just like people, they all have their own personalities. From the get-go, Irene was not a power storm. Her goal was to become wide, not internally powerful. Personified further, the storm became too big too quickly and it cannot master its own strength.



I have to agree, this storm is turning out to be too big to be too strong.

[glowing]

1. This is a good thing!! The weaker the better. Who wants the destruction.

Destruction happens to real people and in this financial climate, no one needs the added stress of a major storm crumbling towns and ruining businesses.

[FLPanhandle]

2. The media "wants" the destruction

It's ratings and money to them. Especially when they can get a market like NYC to tune into their every word for a couple of days.

[FedUpWithIt All]

3. I guess we'll see in a couple of days.

Meanwhile, let's hope people stay safe no matter what is coming.

[FLPanhandle]

24. Looks like it was all hype afterall.

Nothing but a Cat 1.

[FedUpWithIt All]

47. I assume you live in Fla from your name?

Fla is built for this type of thing eh? A Cat 1 is no biggie. Are you aware that the central pressure for this Cat 1 is at 950? That is more near the pressure of a Cat 3. The size of this hurricane is also massive and had been pushing with it a LOT of water. Nobody was every really concerned about, and have said so since the start of this, the wind spead measurements. What they are concerned about is the massive amounts of water and surges causing damage to structures not built for this type of weather (unlike the structures in your own area), particularly in NY where those structures are extremely tall (higher wind speeds at the top of extremely tall towers)have a huge underground and are at times built very close to sea level.

You do know that Katrina (destructive as it was even along the Gulf) was only a Cat 3 when it hit land? The problem wasn't the wind speed. It was the water damaging infrastructure.

I would hold your hype comments until we actually see what she has done. God forbid, people see your hype comments and take less cautious action. We are still waiting and seeing.

[cwydro]

31. Certain people on DU

were hyping this storm too.

Panicky breathless posts from some who live nowhere near the path.

[treestar]

49. Drama Underground

[Dorian Gray]

51. Yep

The media seems invested in the destruction.

The rest of us appreciate a waning storm.

[elfin]

4. Doesn't matter if weaker than predicted

It will save lives and distress anyway.

It is an EXCELLENT exercise of evacuation procedures. They can tweak and improve for the future, if necessary in a huge disaster. Bet they are taking notes all along.

[FLPanhandle]

5. The downside is people won't take the next evacuation seriously.

That's always a balancing act here in Florida. Order evacuations when they are not required, people just learn to ignore them next time even if the next time the should evacuate.

[Jamastiene]

42. True.

Plus, no matter how good we have gotten at predicting weather, hurricanes are notorious for being very unpredictable. We can guesstimate, but they still seem to do whatever they damn well please.

I'd rather be warned than terrorized mind control style like The Weather Channel and some of them have been doing. Saying this would be NC's Katrina was way too much.

When they did that, I decided to concentrate on some local meteorologists instead. Now that I have seen what is really happening since it has hit NC, the locals were way more responsible with their reporting than the major news outlets and The Weather Channel and WAY more accurate, minus the hype.

[greytdemocrat]

6. Agreed.

I've been following this storm closely and I've never seen anything
in the SAT pics that would indicate an End Of The World cane.

[kdmorris]

8. For you... I'm assuming that Charley would more closely qualify

as "end of the world"... Were you in Sarasota when Charley took his instant right turn and went from a CAT 1 to a CAT 4?

Irene has been encountering shear for the last day or so. In our neck of the woods (SE Florida - near West Palm Beach), at one point the media made it sound like Irene would wipe us off the map. A LOT of people freaked out and bought hundreds of dollars of hurricane supplies (because they still remember 2004 and 2005). But we never were even put under a hurricane watch, so next time... when they really need to listen... they will think about this storm and think "It always turns north".

[greytdemocrat]

15. Yep

I was in Sarasota for Charley, saw the turn start on a local news channel SNN way before it was called by TWC.

Charley had a very small eye where the damage was done. Ft. Myers and Sanibel had lots of tree
damage but no Storm Surge as the eye was too small and it moved too fast. It did shock the living
crap out of all the people who ran to Orlando.

We had worse T-Storms the next day.

If the Eye ran over you it was bad but Charley's severe damage was in a small area and there
was no storm surge in Port Charlotte or Sanibel.

[kdmorris]

16. My sister evacuated from Tampa Bay to Orlando for Charley

Whoops...At her house there wasn't even much rain!

[greytdemocrat]

18. LOL!!!

Yeah, Orlando had 100 mph winds and I had nothing more than a stiff breeze. Not that I'm complaining. I didn't have any window protection or generator back then. Much better prepared now.

[hedgehog]

26. Doesn't that story prove that predicting the path of a hurricane

is rather dicey? So would you warn people who probably will be effected, of fail to warn people who might be OK?

[kdmorris]

52. I would warn people who might be OK.

Always... I'm sorry, but did I somewhere say that I didn't think that people should be warned about the potential impacts of the storm and shouldn't prepare for the storm?

All I said is that hype surrounding the storm (not the predicted path or predicted intensity) will cause the loss of life next time around. Saying that this is the 'storm of the century" or that it will cause "unprecedented destruction" or "will end life as we know it for months"... is hyperbole and if the media says that about every storm... people will tune it out when they need to listen next time.

Edited to fix grammar.

[jpak]

7. Yeah - the hype of Hurricane Erin, Opal, Georges & Ivan were overblown

on th FL panhandle

[FLPanhandle]

9. Ivan had much less coverage than Irene is getting

And it was a much stronger storm. This is now going into NC as a strong Cat 1 and will be a TS by the time it gets to the Northeast.

The difference is there is a fraction of the TV viewers here than in NYC.

[ProfessionalLeftist]

10. Having been through a few hurricanes, I adopt the 'better safe than sorry' M.O.

Irene is BIG (size-wise) and WAS a Cat 3. That IS something to be concerned about when it's aiming towards any part of the US (or anywhere). It makes sense to follow this storm closely even as it weakens, as long as it is barreling towards occupied land. People want, need, and expect to be updated on the storm as long as it is any significant threat to life and property. Forecasters often take a pessimistic approach to their forecasts. I don't see this as a lack of skill, or bad forecast modeling so much I see it as being very careful with human lives.

I like to believe they'd rather be wrong in that they overstate, rather than understate the risks of such storms.

Yesterday, or two days ago no one knew the storm would weaken. Just late last night, it was well-formed with a clearly defined eye. It would have been grossly irresponsible to poo-poo the significance of the storm at that point.

For some company trying to promote their own forecasting wares to come along after-the-fact and criticize reporting on this storm as being "overblown" is disingenuous and self-serving, IMO considering the damage it had already caused and what it looked like just less than 24 hours ago - and where it's headed.

[FLPanhandle]

11. The danger in overstating a storm is people learn to ignore wrong "dire" predictions

It's a huge effort and expense to evacuate. Do it a few times because the media overreacts and forecasters overstate and the next time people will ignore them when the predictions are true.

It's a balancing act.

[malletgirl02]

12. Correct

Hopefully it isn't that bad, but as you said better safe than sorry, never fuck with mother nature.

[Jamastiene]

43. I see what you are saying, but

there is a big difference between making claims that Irene would be NC's Katrina (as The Weather Channel did) and saying it's a hurricane, better to be safe than sorry.

On the one end of the spectrum, some of the things The Weather Channel and other national media were saying were way overboard.

On the other end of the spectrum, local meteorologists here in NC were warning us and letting us know what it might do. Locally, the emphasis was more on preparing and being safe, instead of the extreme catch phrase wording like national media used...and still is using.

Sure, hurricanes are unpredictable to a certain degree, when it comes to their strength and what they will do next, but I'd still rather be warned than terrified by meteorologists. What The Weather Channel and some others did and said was entirely too sensationalistic. That leads to panic and doesn't help matters at all.

[ProfessionalLeftist]

54. Didn't know WC called it NYC's "Katrina"

It's not mentioned in the OP and I don't watch WC but rather my local news online. Calling it NYC's "Katrina" is definitely not helpful.

[Modern_Matthew]

13. They aren't evacuating based on hype. They are basing it on data from the NWS... nt

[global1]

14. To Big To Fail????.......nt

[Fuddnik]

17. It will hit the Gulf Stream sometime tonight.

Remember Hugo? It was a Cat 1 until it hit the Gulf Stream.

[FLPanhandle]

20. From NOAA...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT.

It'll be a Cat 1 when it hits and nothing but a TS or a weak Cat 1 by the time it hits the NE. We don't even board the windows for that.

[Broderick]

34. amid all the hype the true picture for hurricane warning areas

like Virginia beach is a max sustained wind speed of 50-55 MPH in the hourly forecast. Come on. That is no hurricane. Several thunderstorms that rolled through this summer were far more powerful albeit smaller in geographical size. sigh.

[kdmorris]

21. That is false - It already hit the Gulf Stream

Edited to add: and Hugo was a very powerful hurricane for a lot longer than just when it was in the Gulf Stream:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hugo

Hurricane Hugo was a destructive Category 5 hurricane which struck the Caribbean islands of Guadeloupe, Montserrat, St. Croix, Puerto Rico, Antigua and the USA mainland in South Carolina during September of the 1989 Atlantic hurricane season. This intense hurricane tracked through the Lesser Antilles and to South Carolina as a category 4 hurricane, and was the costliest hurricane in the Atlantic at the time.

Hurricane Hugo formed over the eastern Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands on September 9, 1989. Hugo moved thousands of miles across the Atlantic, rapidly strengthening to briefly attain category 5 hurricane strength on its journey. It later crossed over Guadeloupe and St. Croix on September 17 more, Hurricane Hugo passed over Puerto Rico as a strong category 3 hurricane. Further weakening occurred several hours after re-emerging into the Atlantic, becoming downgraded to a category 2 hurricane. However, Hugo re-strengthened into a category 4 hurricane before making landfall on Isle of Palms, South Carolina on September 22.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_Stream

The Gulf Stream, together with its northern extension towards Europe, the North Atlantic Drift, is a powerful, warm, and swift Atlantic ocean current that originates at the tip of Florida

[lynne]

19. Agreed and I just wish the media would quit the fear-mongering -

Yes, its good to be forewarned and be prepared and to get out if evacuated BUT the media are driving people to frenzy and hysteria and that's NOT good. Been watching this system and it is big but she's losing steam rapidly. She'll lose even more after she first hits land and more again when she gets into cooler water.

Due to her size she'll dump a bunch of water so we'll need to watch for flooding but her wind has been downgraded and will reduce even more. Think of this as a super-sized summer thunder storm as that's pretty much what it will be.

I think - and hope - that this will be similar to the "What's in Capone's Vault" media hype - a lot of talk and build-up with little to no results.

[FLPanhandle]

22. They are just teaching millions of people to ignore them next time.

That's the problem with crying "wolf".

[Eddie Haskell]

29. Agreed.

My paper's headline is: HISTORIC STORM. How can they proclaim a storm "historic" before it even strikes land? What a bunch of bull.

[Mojorabbit]

23. She is looking pretty good right now. nt

[hedgehog]

25. So the CEO of a private forecasting firm jumps up to plug his product -

why am I not surprised?

Chaos theory was developed in response to the problem of weather forecasting. A minor change in conditions can cause significant changes in results.

In this case, the concern is as much or more about flooding from the storm surge as from wind damage. It's rather early to be downplaying this storm.

Additionally - the media could hype this all they want, but people would ignore the hype if they weren't interested. Complaining about the media focusing on the story that most interests people is like complaining about dogs barking.

[Eddie Haskell]

32. Well he got it right ... didn't he?

I'd say he was a voice of reson.

[Harmony Blue]

33. No one knows for sure at this point

It could weaken, or strengthen. Reality is take it at face value.

[Broderick]

35. LOL

It is NOT going to strengthen. The water is too cold. Land is ripping it apart. It's direction is more east than anticipated. It's all a fabrication of sensationalism. The storms the day before in Virginia did more damage methinks. Storm surge will reverse as it passes in the direction it is going. At least on the surface of it all, it is a rain producer and it was sorely needed in the dismal swamp area. Hopefully it will be enough to extinguish the fire down there.

[Harmony Blue]

36. There is no certainty with this storm

I think it is best to take information as it comes along instead of making broad assumptions IMVHO.

[Broderick]

38. It has been and will continue to be a hype trap.

down to 85 mph. Just hanging in as a hurricane. The next update might put it out of hurricane wind speed territory. fizzle dizzle. North Carolina has seen much worse in the past, but having it told in the 24/7 news hype world, one would think this is and was the biggest hurricane to ever hit the United States. Where was the cat 4 strengthening? Where are the folks that said just 2 days ago that it would hit land as a cat 3? It's a cat 1 for heaven's sake when it hit land and might not even be a hurricane in a few hours.

[Harmony Blue]

40. I don't agree

as it was a cat 3 not too long ago, so it wasn't hype. The barometric pressure is the best measure to look at, not the sustained wind speeds, or wind gusts.

[Broderick]

41. giggle snort.

ok.

[justiceischeap]

27. What I've been hearing over and over is it isn't the winds they're worried about

but the storm surge at this point. The storm surge can and most likely will cause a great deal of damage.

I think bureaucrats have learned their lesson from Katrina, better to be prepared and have overreacted than to be caught with your pants about your ankles.

[Broderick]

39. Storm surge is always the biggest killer

But compare the trajectory of Isabelle and Bonny and Floyd to Irene. Irene is shifting East pulling water back with it. Isabelle went through NC, then Suffolk VA and rooted through the Richmond area pushing water into the bay as it pulled through. The predictions of storm surge were far below that of Isabelle to begin with, and that was when the frantic hype vultures were running around trying to make this the storm of the century, hitting land as a Cat 3, etc. The buoy wind speeds a mere 60 miles from the center were recording 60 MPH winds only - long before it hit land. It's a puppy in the world of hurricanes to lash the US. Now watching the news media is a farce as they look for a single garbage can turned over, a nail missing, a tree limb down. It's silly.

[Fearless]

28. Down to 85mph... barely over land in NC... dud.

[Harmony Blue]

30. The problem is no one knows what will happen

I don't like how the barometric pressure is so low still.

[TBF]

37. This is a hard call - if they don't prepare and all of a sudden it's a CAT 4 -

millions of folks die. I'd cut them some slack.

Also, as I discussed in an OP this morning, Tropical Storm Allison hit Houston in 2001 with winds of 60 mph and drenched the city for days. The entire downtown tunnel system and parking garages were completely filled with water. At least 40 people died in Texas alone, but there was also extensive damage in Louisiana and Pennsylvania.

[BlueMTexpat]

44. There is nothing "certain" about a destructive force like a hurricane.

Tell those who are out of power and whose houses are flooded right now that this was all "hype."

We've been told all along that the rains, storm surge (flooding) and power outages are most likely the worst that we will see here in (somewhat) inland MD. But if this storm - which is huge - moves even a degree or so to the west, things could get dicier.

Those who are safely out of its path can talk about theoretical hype all they want. Those of us who have loved ones anywhere near the projected path want them to be safe and are happy to see the authorities - not simply the media - taking things seriously. Sure, we can complain about hype afterwards - but only if we're still here.

[yardwork]

45. What is this - some company that wants to take over the National Weather Service?

I remember that the Republicans are always trying to defund NOAA and the National Weather Service. This sounds like another one of the for-profit companies that wants our money.

Wind is never the biggest problem with hurricanes. It's the flooding that kills and destroys.

[yardwork]

46. Gusts of 110 mph reported on the coast - flooding in New Bern, which is inland on a tidal river

It's the flooding that kills.

http://www.wral.com/weather/story/10052806/

[FLPanhandle]

48. No one is saying even a Cat 1 hurricane isn't something to watch out for

However, calling this the "Storm of the Century", and "Epic" is over hyping it.

[yardwork]

50. I don't know what news reports you watch, but my local news has not used those terms.

Nobody in North Carolina has been calling this epic or anything like that. We are respectful of the potential for loss of life in the flooding that accompanies storms.

I think that NYC is right to worry about flooding. The northeastern cities rarely get a direct hit, and if the storm slows down and plows right across Manhattan, they are going to have serious problems. That is not hype.

[kdmorris]

53. Which is really good

I would expect that local news would be better at this sort of reporting (my local news was not - they said that Irene would cause "unprecedented destruction" (Andrew?), and "end life as we knew it in SE Florida". And we were not even under a tropical storm watch at the time - no watches or warnings were ever issued for my area). The Weather Channel, CNN, MSNBC... mainly the national "news" stations. And of course, the terror junkies here at DU, apparently.

It is good that you are respectful of the potential loss of life. I assume from that statement that you've been through these before.

Calm, factual reporting of the news that a category 1 (or 2 or 3) storm is heading for your area, with information on what you need to do is what everyone should strive for in these situations. And then... do what you need to protect your life and property.

The "end of life as we know it" and "NC will be destroyed (NC's Katrina)" type things cause people to panic. And after a few times of that, that become apathetic and do not do what they need to next time to protect their life and property. Someone alluded to the difference in preparation in SC when he was there and here in SE Florida... the panicked, freaking out, will run down your own grandmother to get water behaviors happen all the time here. And I'm convinced it's because our local news sucks and just scares the crap out of people instead of calmly telling them what they need to do.

No, the amount of flooding that can occur is not hype. Nor is reporting that these types of storms can cause tornadoes or power outages. But the "we're all gonna die" stuff... just needs to stop or people really won't take it seriously when they need to (later this year or next year or in the 2013 hurricane season).