Real unemployment is more than 15%, and rising - everything else is

[MannyGoldstein]

just a detail, really.

When everyone has jobs, things pretty much work out OK. When many are wanting for work, everything goes to hell.

That is all. Please return to your regular programming.

[aquart]

1. Agreed.

[Arctic Dave]

2. You are not allowed to go off script.

Happy talk only.

Nothing educational or informing is allowed, you will wake them from their slumber.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

3. Creating jobs is not good for business right now

And yet, our leaders are bending over backwards to kowtow to the corporations.

[bananas]

4. As long as it's under 30%, they don't care.

Above 30% is when riots break out, IIRC.
That's when it becomes bad for business.

[pinqy]

5. Will people please stop with this "real unemployment" crap?

First, it's meaningless...A higher percent is not worse when you're changing what it's a percent of. The current UE rate is 9.1% and that's Unemployed as a percent of the Labor Force. Add in Discouraged workers, that makes it 9.8%, BUT the equation is now (Unemployed + Discouraged) as a percent of (the Labor Force + Discouraged). They're going to move the same way for the most part.

Now let's see what's needed to get your hypothetical 15%.
Unemployed = 13,931,000
Labor Force = 153,228,000
Marginally Attached (willing and available to work, looked for work in the last 12 months but not last 4 weeks, so theoretically available IF they start looking for work) = 2,785,000
Want a job now minus marginally attached(not looking for work, and either not available to work or hasn't looked in over a year if ever) = 3,790,000

So official unemployment is UE/LF = 13,931,000/153,228,000 = 9.1%
The U-5 is (UE+MA)/(LF-MA) = (13,931,000+2,785,000)/(153,228,000+2,785,000) = 16,716,000/156,013,000 = 10.7%
So how many more people do we have to add to get 15%? Thats (16,716,000+X)/(156,013,000+X)=.15 X=7,866
Therefore we would need to add 7,866,000 to the U-5 to get 15%. But there's only 3,790,000 more people not working who even want a job. You're over 4 million short and you're already counting people who couldn't take a job if offered. You'd have to start counting prisoners or mental patients or people under 16 or people who have jobs.

How on earth would that be "real?"

[MannyGoldstein]

6. So is Shadowstats wrong?

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

I'm curious as to your take on it.

[pinqy]

7. He is so wrong I'm amazed anyone pays attention

Mr. Williams points out correctly that the definition of "Discouraged Worker" changed in 1994, but he's incomplete and misleading.

Before, a discouraged worker was someone who wanted to work but was not currently looking (last 4 weeks) because s/he felt they would be unsuccessful. In 1994 it changed to someone who wanted and was available to work who had not looked for work in the past 4 weeks, but had looked in the last 12 months and had stopped looking because s/he felt they would be unsuccessful.

Mr. Williams only mentions the new time limit, fails to mention the addition of "available," and claims he's just putting back in those no longer defined as Discouraged, though he does not say how he arrived at his numbers.

What he also fails to mention is that not only were Discouraged NOT included prior to 1994 (so he can't really put them back in) but that he's adding them to the U-6, a measurement that did not exist before 1994 because it includes ALL Marginally Attached, not just Discouraged. Marginally Attached is willing and able to work, did not look in last 4 weeks, did look in last 12 months regardless of reason for not looking and was not a category prior to 1994.

And the U-6 also includes "part time for economic reasons." People want to work 35+ hours/week but during the reference week worked less than 35 hours due to cut hours or inability to find full time work. This has NEVER been part of any official definition of unemployed.

And, since I already showed that it takes millions more than those who even want a job to get to 15%, it's even worse to get to the 22% Shadowstats claims.

[nashville_brook]

8. many of the discouraged workers are half of previously 2-income families...but they don't count

too troublesome.

[pinqy]

9. Why do you think they don't count?

The survey covers everyone in the household individually.