|
The Ames Straw Poll is a good barometer for measuring a candidate's strength with fundraising and on-the-ground organisation. Furthermore, it occurs after most candidates have entered the race, have raised significant amounts of money, established a nexus of volunteers and have spent time campaigning in Iowa.
Also, Iowa cauci are rather low turnout affairs, so the turnout today is over 10% of those who will turn out in the cold winter January/February night of their caucus. If a candidate cannot afford to charter buses and purchase hundreds of tickets to bring people or if their don't have the organisational strength to do so, they aren't going to win in Iowa (or New Hampshire for that matter). If a candidate cannot entice people to get on a comfortable charter bus for an hour and have a free day at a fair with all the free food and cold drinks they can pour down their gullet, they aren't going to pick up any support either!
Even then, some candidates do perform well that will go nowhere when actual voting takes place (Mssrs. Pawlenty and Santorum) and some perform poorly and do well in actual contests (John McCain in 2008). However, the results will keep Pawlenty trudging through the race until Iowa and the results probably spell an end to the nascent Thaddeus McCotter campaign due to him actually taking part and getting all of 35 votes.
The results are likely embarrassing for Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman. Although neither took part, both were beat out by Rick Perry despite people actually having to write his name in instead of being prompted with a name on the ballot paper and placing an X. Worse for Romney, he has near 100% name recognition, is a supposed top-tier candidate yet loses to a Johnny-come-lately in the race for all of 10 minutes with people having to consciously write-in his name! The relative poor performance could serve as a loss of confidence by the people in the GOP with money and lead to a stampede among to moneyed establishment en masse towards Governor Perry. If so, Romney might not make it to the actual cauci and the race will rapidly become a Perry vs. Bachmann battle royale.
|