What's your best guess for the official unemployment rate for October 2012 ?

[steve2470]

Your best guess, please.

[mmonk]

1. It will be high.

In fact, the corporate dictatorship wants a higher structured unemployment rate to keep downward pressure on wages.

[murphyj87]

2. I think in October it will be .....

9.7% in the US and 7.0% in Canada,

[Cerridwen]

3. Their numbers plus 10% n/t

[Tuesday Afternoon]

29. +1

I love the way they "massage" the numbers.

[Pryderi]

4. 10.6% n/t

[QC]

5. 10.8% was his idol Reagan's peak unemployment rate.

I think we will be looking at something very similar once the coming spending cuts kick in.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Like the rent, too damn high

9+

BTW, October 2012 is irrelevant. Minds are made up long before that, in terms of the economic performance of a president. That's why all the reliable presidential prediction models look at GDB and other major variables with a cutoff date in the middle of the year.

Obama has less than a year for a minor miracle.

[steve2470]

8. didn't know that, thanks nt

[indurancevile]

20. if there's a spike in UE it will matter.

[maryellen99]

7. 30% + nt

[michreject]

22. Nationwide

Not Detroit.

[cherokeeprogressive]

9. 9.5+ and if it's lower, I'll donate $50.

I will post a poll that asks whether I should donate to DU, or a charity.

Oh, I should add that I'm saying 9.5+ AFTER the number is revised upward (with little or no fanfare) once Obama is inaugurated.

[Horse with no Name]

10. I think it will be lower than you think.

Of course, the numbers will be cooked and wildly inaccurate.

Without unemployment extensions, the rolls will be emptying pretty rapidly.

Make no mistake, unemployment will be HIGH...the numbers just won't reflect it.

[Angry Dragon]

11. I see un-employment at 1.5% in October, 2012

All business uncertainty is now a mute subject due to this fine deal for the country
so businesses will start hiring masses of people by the middle of August, 2011
and there will be so many jobs opening up people will not know which
ones to apply for and they will get so many job offers that their heads will spin.

[Parker CA]

12. Just below 11%

[readmoreoften]

13. All choices lower than now? I'm going with 10.8% but it's a wild guess.

[quiller4]

14. My guess is just below 7% nationally but with some areas doing

much better. Hiring is already on the increase in some areas recently but public sector layoffs have been high enough to offset any private sector gains. Recruiters were back on west coast campuses in a big way this year. Exports are rising and with Japan is spending substantially on rebuilding.

Employment on all West Coast ports is up and will be growing in the months ahead.

[indurancevile]

21. ...

[coalition_unwilling]

15. > 10%. No way is there enough consumer spending and

business investment to compensate for the approaching cuts to government spending at the state level that hit later this year.

Macroeconomics 101.

Hello, President Romney.

[maryellen99]

18. We'll be in total economic collapse if he gets in

Btw, he's against the deal and would default if given the chance.

[coalition_unwilling]

24. Yeah. A President Romney (with House and Senate) would

take us from > 10% unemployment to > 25% unemployment. We will enter Great Depression, v2.0 under the Romulan, that's for sure.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

25. Yet the debt ceiling will be raised without objection several times during his term.

[nadinbrzezinski]

16. 2-3% higher than now

and that is if we are lucky.

That be around 11-12%... those are my conservative numbers.

[steve2470]

17. I would add 10% and 11% to the poll but that wouldn't be fair to the people who have already voted

I guess I was too optimistic :-(

[PADemD]

19. 12%

[FBaggins]

23. Doesn't matter. Impressions of the economy are set well before election day.

If things aren't markedly better than this by May/June we'll have an uphill battle (to say the least).

And it looks like we'll be lucky if they aren't worse.

[bobdawg]

26. I thnk the "official" statistics are so politicized

that the "official" unemployment rate will be as low as our corrupt government can possibly make it. They seem capable now of lying outrageously with a straight face.

That said, I think if the rate now is 9.2%, the rate in October of 2012 will be 12.7%. This deal is profoundly anti-job and anti-stimulative.

[AngryAmish]

27. Things will stay the same until people stop trying to fix the problem

[LatteLibertine]

28. Honestly

education level has an impact on it. Folks without a high school diploma are getting hit the hardest. People with just an Associates degree have almost twice their income and are at half their unemployment percentage. Official 2010 numbers are below.

Source:
http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htm

[nc4bo]

30. Other. Anywhere between 10-12% maybe worse.

Unless of course there's some massive, and I do mean massive, fed based infrastructure rebuilding with checks in place to prevent contractors from hiring undocumented workers.

Why haven't we addressed the immigrant issue yet? Or election reform.................:shrug:

[yurbud]

31. whatever it is, gov't action will not have made as much difference to improve it as it

could have.