Skills Gap: To be filed under NO SHIT, SHERLOCK

[TalkingDog]

http://www.wral.com/news/national_world/national/story/9801998/

"We held on too long to these low-wage, low-skill industries, and we didn't make the strategic long-term investments in education"


/

"Our system for preparing young adults is broken," said William Symonds, director of the Pathways to Prosperity Project at Harvard's Graduate School of Education. "We're not saying that the system is failing everybody, but it is leaving a lot of young people behind."

Educators and business leaders say that a "college for all" mentality is no longer realistic, if ever it was. Many positions — known as "middle-skill" jobs — don't require a degree from a four-year institution. The Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce estimates there will be 47 million job openings in the decade ending in 2018. Nearly half will require only an associate's degree.

Career and technical education programs, once derided as being for those who couldn't cut it academically, offer one path. But growing those programs has not been a national priority and their quality is inconsistent at best. Education Secretary Arne Duncan has called career and technical education the "neglected stepchild" of education reform.

[Sal Minella]

1. I love my plumber.

He installed a nice new bathroom faucet set and did it really fast and left NO mess behind and charged me about half of what I was expecting to pay.

I never got around to asking whether he has a bachelor's or a master's in anything.

[Warpy]

2. That's why Germany has continued to excel

They graduate kids from high school at 16 and have state supported technical education facilities for continuing education. Kids on an academic track finish two or three more years of prep work in high school before going on to university.

I've been telling bright kids to consider trade school instead of college for ages, with a 2 year business degree giving them the knowledge they'll need when they're proficient enough to set up their own shops.

[TalkingDog]

3. You are a wise Warp

n/t

[JoePhilly]

4. My personal experience would disagree ....

Back in the 80s, as part of a group of about 14 guys of high school age ... 4 of us completed college, the other 10 did not.

We are all still friends.

If you were to rank us on networth and overall financial security now, ~30 years later ... the 4 who completed college would be in the top 5. Only one of those who went the technical route you describe has made it into that top 5 ... and he's #4 or #5. And the top 3 are well ahead of 4 and 5.

Of the other 9, I would have that 3 are relatively stable blue collar guys ... electrician, plumber, sprinkler fitter ... all Union, all at the mercy of the next layoff between jobs. But they each do ok. The plumber tried the path you mention ... started his own business, it failed, and he went back to the Union.

Of the remaining 6, 2 had started a furniture moving business. They did this as an off shoot from an existing business run by one of their brothers who had the business experience already. During the 90s, they were doing well, their small business was growing. Both talked of early retirement. But by 2003, they were struggling, and by 2007, they were out of business. They now move furniture for other people. Both are in mid-40s.

The other 4 are what I would call wanderers. One is a high school football coach now, he also manages a small branch of the Philly news paper delivery (which is like 20 teens and a couple adults who deliver news papers in local areas). The other three guys are still doing odd jobs. One lives with his parents.

I should also mention that all four of the college educated guys married college educated women. As did one other guy who does not have a college degree, but who would also be in the top 5 on net worth / financial security that I mentioned above.

[Warpy]

5. That was the 80s. This is now

and too many kids are exiting college with crippling debt and absolutely no job prospects even long term.

I wasn't telling bright kids to go into trades in the 80s. I am now.

[JoePhilly]

11. Back in the 80s, we were told to skip college and get a trade too.

That's part of why only a few of us went that route.

The folks predicting then that a college education would not help you were wrong.

I don't see any reason to believe the folks who make that prediction now.

[LooseWilly]

7. Entering the job market in the '80s, rather than the '90s, can make all the difference...

My college degree in the '90s meant next to nothing in-itself... it was a matter of having a job lined up for you by a friend or relative—or forget about it. Some of us weren't so lucky... despite your happy & self-congratulatory College-Graduate-American-Dream anecdotes.

In contrast... I found this: http://harrisschool.uchicago.edu/programs/beyond/workshops/ppepapers/spring08-oreopolous.pdf

"We find that young graduates entering the labor
market in a recession suffer significant and lasting earnings losses that fade after 8 to 10 years. These losses
are substantially larger and more persistent for less advantaged college graduates. The losses we find can be
partly explained by an initial reduction in employer quality. Recovery occurs through a time-intensive process
of job mobility to better employers." (bold added)

Those of us who entered the job market in the '90s were entering in a recession... and so we did "suffer significant and lasting earning losses"... but in the face of this recession?... I think the prospects of "a time-intensive process of job mobility to better employers" are greatly diminished, and without some sort of nepotistic angle... I'd say there's a serious screwing in store for the majority of the youth today.

That screwing's only gonna be rougher still, because so many of those who entered the job market in the '60s, '70s and '80s simply refuse to retire (especially now that retirements have been looted by corporations or Wall St. implosion gutting of 401k's)... leaving no room amidst the job cutbacks for any new workers to employ said strategy of "job mobility" to make up for early "career drag".

[JoePhilly]

9. First, I entered the job market in 1990.

BS in 85, MA in 88, PhD in 89.

And if you recall the 80s, we were being told THEN that there was no reason to go to college because the economy was so bad. That is part of why some of my friends didn't go.

I told my story because the OP said he's giving advice to others based on his experience. I provided my experience because it is quite different.

Interesting quote you provided ... but did you really read the article?

I ask because you clearly misunderstand the conclusion you draw from that quote ... here is another quote that might help clear things up.

To be clearer ... who was their sample??

"We have estimated the long term effects of entering the labor market in a recession for a large sample of
Canadian men leaving college whose earnings, employers, and career outcomes are tracked for ten years."

Everyone in the study was a college graduate.

They also note ...

"In particular, earnings losses from temporarily high unemployment rates are strongest for labor market entrants and small for workers with two or more years of labor market experience. Graduates with the lowest predicted earnings suffer significantly larger and much more persistent earnings losses than those at the top. Thus, we see a temporary increase in inequality from recessions lasting up to ten years, which translates into permanent increases in inequality in the present discounted value of earnings.

Read it closely ... and then determine who the authors are comparing .... they are not comparing those with college degrees to those without college degrees .... they are comparing "less advantaged graduates", those who have lower PREDICTED earnings, to other college graduates who have higher predicted earnings ("those at the top"), or who have also been in the market for two or more years.

So, what they found is that

(1) a college graduate who enters the work force during a recession, does not make as much initially as another college graduate who has been in the market for 2 or more years.

(2) A college graduate with a "lower" predicted salary doesn't do as well as a college graduate that has a "higher" predicted salary.

(3) The recent college graduate who has a "higher" predicted salary catches up to the college graduate with more experience FASTER, then the college graduate with a "lower" predicted salary.

That's all interesting, but again, they are comparing college graduates to other college graduates ... which is probably why at no point do they suggest that people should skip college.

[mrmpa]

6. College is not for all, however, never take that dream....

away. I think there is a deliberate effort by some to keep the electorate uneducated. I think that the position of Pathways to Prosperity Project is falling into the hands of those who don't want an educated citizenry.

[TalkingDog]

8. One positive side effect of more kids going to trade schools?

The "tuition bubble" will bust. Colleges will be forced to lower costs because their customers will be going elsewhere for an education. Prices will come back into line so that kids won't be saddled with unreasonable debt just to get an education.

As to under-educating our kids... that's starting in grade school. They are making it impossible for teachers to teach and for kids to learn. College won't do you any good if you have to struggle to keep up.

[GeorgeGist]

10. Trickle down ...

is good enough etc. - Ronald Reagan, 1980.