State of U.S. economy grows murkier

[xchrom]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/state-of-us-economy-grows-murkier-2011-06-05

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The sharp decline in hiring during May is likely to hang over U.S. markets this week owing to a thin slate of economic data.

On Friday, the federal government reported that the U.S. gained a meager 54,000 jobs last month — less than one-fourth of what was added in April. The dismal jobs report capped off a poor month in which most major indicators showed a deterioration in the economy. Read MarketWatch article on May jobs report.

All the bad news has put pressure on U.S. stock prices and sent investors scurrying for the safety of low-yielding Treasurys /quotes/comstock/20m!i:tnx TNX -1.09% .

The upcoming week of data probably won’t get investors out of their shell. Headline data include weekly jobless claims, the U.S. trade deficit, the JOLTS report on job openings and the Federal Reserve’s regular economic survey known as the Beige Book.

The question on everyone’s minds is whether the U.S. economy has temporarily hit the skids or is entering a longer-term phase of slow growth. A majority of economists stick to the view that the U.S. is experiencing a lull in its recovery, but that growth will accelerate later in the year.





i guess it's gonna be how TPTB defines 'picking up'.

[OhioChick]

1. Murkier? Depression-like is more like it n/t

[coalition_unwilling]

2. If it were not for 62,000 McShit jobs added during May, the economy

would have actually lost 8,000 jobs during the month. Then TPTB would have to define 'falling off a cliff' or 'going into the abyss.'

BTW, most of those McShit jobs will disappear if and when the economy enters another recession (defined by economists as two or more successive quarters of negative growth).

[xchrom]

3. i posted article the other day about how jack in the box -- i think it was --

is still not seeing a big up tick in business since we 'left' the recession.

[Donnachaidh]

5. many of the fast food places in my area are EMPTY

And that's very unusual for this car-entrenched community.

Jiffy Lubes are empty. We joke about the ice cream places (Bruster's, etc) having to deal pot out of their businesses because even with 95+ degrees of heat -- they are EMPTY.

Local sale ads are offering HUGE cuts to get customers into the stores -- but it's NOT working. There are plenty of cars in traffic, but it does not seem as if they are out shopping.

And we have a huge upswing in the amount of out of state plates here. Lots of people probably looking for work.

Oh wait -- one place had a full parking lot -- Goodwill. A sure sign the economy is in the crapper in my area.

[xchrom]

6. i learned in the bush 1 recession -- count shopping bags not people.

of course with on line shopping today -- that's probably not such an accurate take.

[Donnachaidh]

8. that's a lower count too

I've not seen full carts dragging huge amount of groceries out to cars in months. We even watched folks at the local Bj's (warehouse store) and the only people buying big items are folks stocking up on paper products. You can't avoid having a cartfull with those.

But the big ticket items are gathering dust.

[coalition_unwilling]

9. My wife and I frequently visit the Westfield-Culver City mall in SoCal.

Over the past year, each time we've visited, I've been struck by the normal amounts of foot traffic BUT the scant number of pedestrians carrying bags with store logos on them.

Surprised that many of the stores have been able to remain open. And, indeed, the last time we visited (about two weeks ago) a couple more specialty boutiques had folded up shop.

[xchrom]

11. i hate times like this because i'm a boutique shopper.

i like stuff made by small manufacturers -- not carried in the majors -- and it gets really tough to find stores now.

[blue_onyx]

10. I noticed....

when I went to the salvation army to drop off some donations, that the parking lot had more cars than normal. I've actually seen a lot more store closing in the last six months than when we were officially in recession. A convenient store, a bowling alley, and Dunkin Donuts/Baskin Robins all withing 2-3 minutes of my house. Only thing opening are dollar stores.

[OhioChick]

13. Speaking of Goodwill.....

I dropped some things off a few weeks ago and was surprised at some of the makes and models of cars in the parking lot. (Escalade, Lexus, etc.) I brought this up to the lady inside and she said that people that can afford to go out and buy new....aren't. The issue really seemed to bother her, as she said Goodwill "should" be a store for those stricken with very hard times.

[Donnachaidh]

15. well, I was able to replace a crappy juicer with a Juiceman for 20 bucks

at Goodwill, and I'm glad I got it. We aren't seeing high end cars yet -- but it will probably happen soon.

[coalition_unwilling]

14. When filling up your average land yacht costs more than $100 per

fill-up, one can almost guarantee that discretionary shopping will take a hit. I drive a Nissan Sentra and don't drive much, but even I have noticed that the $20 that used to fill my tank now barely gets me more than half a tank roughly.

[marmar]

4. Fewer people have jobs since the Great Recession; many with jobs earn quite a bit less.....

...... and the access to credit is much lower.

But policymakers and these so-called economists can't seem to accept what that ultimately means.

[LiberalLoner]

7. Am I right in thinking that what we have in this nation is a fight between those

of us who feel Keynes was right and those who feel Friedman was right?

Keynesian economics was what was done during FDR's rescue of America and through the 40's, 50's and 60's and into the 70's.

Friedman (Chigaco-school) style economics have been in vogue since 1980.

Keynes believed demand was what drove an economy. Friedman believed it was wealth concentrated in as few hands as possible, was what drove an economy.

I know I've way oversimplified but that's how I understand these competing economic theories.

Keynes felt governmental regulation was needed in several areas to help establish the common good. Friedman felt complete deregulation of the markets was what was needed because there is no such thing as a dishonest businessman or people selling food tainted with e coli or melamine-laced dogfood etc.

A libertarian once explained to me that regulation is not needed because if enough people died from eating a certain food from a company or died from buying their cars or other products, people would then stop buying that product from that maker.

But I thought, what happens then if the same bad product is just sold under a different name? Let's say that Peter Pun peanut butter has lots of e coli and kills lots of people. So people stop buying Peter Pun. But the manufacturing CEO of Peter Pun says, "let's make up a new name and label." And so Peter Pin peanut butter is sold to the public. Same product, same e coli, lots of people dying again. So people stop buying Peter Pin peanut butter. The CEO says, "let's make up a new name." And Peter Pyn peanut butter is born. Laced with e-coli of course. Because it's cheaper to make it that way and more money goes into the CEO's pocket.

I'm firmly in the Keynesian economics camp. It makes a lot of sense to me. Like pretty much all Democrats, I believe there is a role for government to promote the common welfare. To make sure as much as reasonably possible, our food and drugs are safe. Our cars are safe, etc. To try to stop financial bubbles and busts as much as possible, to have an economy on an even-keel so the largest number of people can prosper and be secure in their old age.

[xchrom]

12. you're right -- except i don't think there is much of a fight about it. nt