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(1) The US has never elected a woman President. We might elect a woman President in the near future -- but that will represent the breaking of a barrier, and such barriers here are never broken by mediocre personalities. Kennedy managed to break the anti-Catholic barrier, but he was able to do so in part because he was extraordinarily articulate and informed and likeable and quick-witted. Obama was able to break the anti-non-white barrier in part for the same reasons. The first person to break the anti-woman barrier will be required to have similar qualities: that, of course, is unfair, given the number of mediocre male stooges we've elected to high office here, but fairness doesn't enter into the real calculation. Most Americans consider Sarah neither articulate nor informed nor likeable nor quick-witted: something like 60% of the country says they wouldn't vote for her under any circumstances. A black version of Bush II would have been hooted down in derision, and so would a female version. Sarah's not the one who'll break this barrier
(2) Sarah is a loose cannon. The Republican establishment doesn't want her, because she doesn't really understand the game. The Republicans do not at all mind pushing empty suits into high office: they did that with Reagan and Bush II. But the empty suit must be a compliant empty suit. Reagen knew how to stand up and read his script: he was the perfect front office saleman, and that's in part why he was chosen: with talent, he distracted attention from what the folks in the back actually did. Bush II must be one of the least talented men ever to occupy the Oval Office: he didn't challenge anybody to think so he didn't threaten people's self-esteem -- and he allowed his appearances to be carefully controlled (like Reagan's), staying more or less on cue for short periods, with scripting done by Rove, who really is something of a slimy political genius. But Sarah won't take advice from anyone: she shoots from the hip, without much preparation, probably because she's incapable of any preparation
(3) Beyond the fact that most people simply won't vote for Sarah, there is the fact that Sarah's appearance on the ballot could actually increase anti-Republican turnout. She is a polarizing figure: that is partly why our cheapo lazy-ass media likes to cover her: they can get stories that produce emotional reactions from readers and viewers, without investing many resources. So we can expect endless nauseating coverage of Sarah from now until the cows home, none of which means much. Most of the emotional reaction, however, is negative -- and "Gadzooks! It looks like Sarah could actually become President!" will not help the Republicans in 2012
(4) She's not really interested in office: she wants the attention and the money; she doesn't want any of the rest of it. A half-term governorship clearly shows the depth of her political interest. She might want the public elevation that would come from her ability to raise funds for her party and candidates she likes -- but even this is questionable: she might just want the clothes and travel and soapbox. Why would she quit the Fox News gravy train?
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