http://www.texastribune.org/texas-politics/2012-presidential-election/perrys-not-the-texas-frontrunner-uttt-poll-finds/It's a good thing Rick Perry says he's not running for president — only 4 percent of Texas Republicans say they'd vote for the governor, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll.
"This is a major question for a guy who's getting national buzz," says Daron Shaw, co-director of the poll and a government professor at UT. "He hasn't convinced Texans that he's a presidential front-runner."
Not that he's trying to. Perry has said repeatedly that he's not a presidential candidate without squelching campaigns to draft him as one.
Perry's not even the top-rated Texan in the race. That distinction gos to U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Surfside, who's at 10 percent among registered voters who say they will vote in the Republican primary. The leader of the pack — and it's a narrow lead in a pack without a clear front-runner — is former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, at 12 percent, followed by former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, at 11 percent, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 10 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota each have the support of 7 percent, followed by celebrity businessman Donald Trump, 6 percent; Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, 4 percent; former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, 3 percent; and Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana and former Gov. Jon Huntsman of Utah, at 1 percent each.
One in 10 Republican voters want someone else, and 14 percent say they don't know whom they'd vote for in a GOP primary held today. Several of the candidates on that list, including Huckabee, Trump and Daniels, have dropped out since poll was conducted.
It's still early, cautions Jim Henson, who teaches government at UT, runs the Texas Politics Project and co-directs the poll. He doesn't think Perry's numbers are a big deal. "At this point, he's clearly not seen as a candidate," he says.
Support for "red meat" Republican candidates on the presidential list is stronger among men, Shaw says. "Baby boomer women are a huge issue for Republicans," he says. "When they have trouble with those women, that's when they get wiped out in Dallas, that's when they win by 6 points statewide instead of by 12 or 14. You have to watch your flank, and that flank is women who are worried about education, about safety net issues, about the fabric of their communities. …They get concerned about gutting the whole thing."
Texas remains Republican territory, however. Asked how they'd vote in a general election for president, 30 percent of all registered voters who participated in the poll said they would vote to re-elect Barack Obama, and 48 percent would vote for the Republican — whomever it ultimately may be — in the race.
"Other than a pretty narrow band of true independents, we are settling into a very ossified, polarized politics here," Henson says. "We're seeing that in the Legislature, we're seeing it in public opinion, and I think we're probably seeing it around dinner tables and at family gatherings all over the state."