U.S. Wheat Harvest May Be Worse Than Forecast

[dkf]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-17/wheat-damage-claims-in-kansas-may-signal-worse-u-s-harvest-than-forecast.html

The National Weather Service estimates rainfall in the past two months was less than half of normal in much of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Photographer: Carla Gottgens/Bloomberg

Wheat crops in the U.S. Great Plains are showing signs that production may plunge more than the government forecast last week as hot weather and a lack of rain erode plant quality and force farmers to harvest early.

As of May 15, U.S. winter-wheat was in the worst condition since 1996, with 44 percent of fields rated poor or very poor by the government. The National Weather Service estimates rainfall in the past two months was less than half of normal in much of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, where insurance adjuster David Reed said he’s had 300 farmer claims for drought damage in his area this season, already 10 times more than last year.

“I went out to look at fields, and it looked like the tips of the heads were burnt” after temperatures last week topped 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius), said Reed, an area claims supervisor in Stockton, Kansas, for Rural Community Insurance Services, a unit of Wells Fargo & Co. “It’s kind of scary. I would think that the abandonment numbers probably are going to be fairly high.”

After a Russian drought led to a drop in global output in 2010, the prospect of smaller crops in the U.S., the world’s largest exporter, has sent wheat futures up 63 percent in the past year. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on May 11 raised its price forecast, citing “persistent adverse weather” in many growing areas. Dry spells in Europe and excessive rain in the northern U.S. and Canada also fueled prices, boosting costs for food makers including General Mills Inc. (GIS) and Panera Bread Co.

[Drale]

1. Instead of building pipes for oil all over the place

We need pipes so that we can pump all that extra water that currently flooding the Mississippi river to the places where there is a drought.

[dkf]

2. I didn't even realize they were having drought problems since all we hear about was rain.

[Ikonoklast]

3. Buy corn and soybeans.

Most of the midwest should be close to 100% planted right now...it's at less than 20%.


Each day later for planting means less yield...if you think foods prices have been going up on the last couple years, you ain't seen nuttin yet.

[dkf]

4. The breadbasket of the world is not looking very hearty.

[Ikonoklast]

5. Anecdotal evidence, take it for what it's worth.

I crossed Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri last week and still...no crops in wet fields, fields under water, no equipment in the fields, fields still not sprayed down for weeds, untilled...

Real mess.

[dkf]

6. Thanks for the info.

Scary but better to know.