The Republican Civil War II

[Obamakarma]

The most powerful dynamic driving the Republican primary right now is not the race for first place. It’s the race for second. The position every one really wants – from Rick Santorum through Gingrich, Perry, Cain and Bachmann - is that of the official Not-Mitt.

In presidential debates, we’re used to seeing the front runner get taken down a peg or two by the others on stage. Recall the slings and arrows directed Hillary Clinton’s way in the early Democratic debates of the 2008 cycle. But in this year’s Republican performances, almost no one ever seems to go for Romney. Occasionally there will be a brief nudge in his direction, but then the energy will vanish like a wisp of minor turbulence before all the would-be Not-Mitts go back to attacking each other. The reason for this is the numbers, of course. A consistent 75% of the Republican primary electorate just can’t bring themselves to vote for Romney, and, as a result, they’re all up for grabs. So the real prize at this stage in the game is to be the last man or woman left standing.

When we reach that point, the primary really will get interesting. The Republican Party rules are that all states scheduling contests before April 1 will be required to allocate convention delegates by proportional representation instead of a winner-take-all system. There are now over 30 states scheduled to go before this date. That means that the winner of the Not-Mitt contest will get to run a gorilla campaign against the front runner all the way through to Spring.

If the Not-Mitt has enough staying power to make it to the convention, then the nuclear option might just get triggered. As Politico’s Rob Richie and Elsie Helgesen wrote today, “The national convention in Tampa just might take us back to a different political era: one in which delegates act on their power to choose the nominee that they think best represents the Republican Party — even if that is someone other than the apparent winner through state primaries and caucuses.” So a proper blood-on-the-floor-convention could well be what we're looking at.

It remains to be seen whether this full fledged self-destruct scenario plays out, of course, but, as we sit down to enjoy Thanksgiving turkey, it’s worth reflecting that the ravenous ball of rage that the Republicans took on when they co-opted the tea party, may well mean that the next turkey to get devoured is the GOP.

[DFW]

1. No matter now this circus plays out

We dare not forget that 40% of the voters in the United States will vote Republican even
if their ticket consists of the ghosts of Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini. Obama does NOT
get a free ride to re-election, and anyone who thinks he does is dreaming. Rove knows full
well that the odds favor Obama, but if he can be sure that the DNC needs to devote serious
resources to Obama's re-election effort, that means less resources for Congressional races
that will make Obama's second term as trying as the first one--or worse if Republicans can
keep their majority in the House and take another Senate seat or two.

Just because the Republicans nominate an unelectable candidate does not mean they have lost
the fight. I still think this whole circus is for show, and the real machinations are going
on beneath the surface of their slimy swamp.

[Obamakarma]

3. I Agree This Is No Cake Walk For Obama

He still has an uphill struggle who ever he faces. There are plenty of precedents he will have to break, in terms of economic numbers, to win re-election in any event. The media love a close election and the odds are that they will ge another one this time...

[BlueIris]

5. "...(E)ven if their ticket consists of the ghosts of Adolf Hitler..."

That is so true.

So is this: "I still think this whole circus is for show, and the real machinations are going on beneath the surface of their slimy swamp."

I have said all along that the nominee will be a man who is not yet even in the race. After Mitt and Not Mitt collapse, this jackass will be installed as their candidate. Pro-Iran all the way, his job will be to make the invasion happen in every way he can.

[JNelson6563]

9. Hear, hear!

Always a pleasure to see you DFW. I see you're still going around making sense and stuff. :toast:

Julie

[droidamus2]

2. It wouldn't surprise me

That at the last minute some 'candidate' that is not already taking part in the process and debates will show up and take the nomination. NO I am not necessarily talking about a Palin or a Trump. Maybe somebody like a Giuliani but maybe more likely somebody that has been around Republican politics for a long time but not too much in the public eye. That way he or she can be presented as somebody with experience but maybe somebody that a lot of research hasn't been done on in connection to presidential politics. This way they go into the general election with somebody that hasn't been pounded in the debates or the media and will be presented as the 'unifying force' for the Republican party. Hey I know maybe they will draft Jeb Bush to continue the Bush dynasty.

[Obamakarma]

6. The Rabbit Out Of The Hat Option Is A Definite Possibility

They are so starved at the moment of anyone they can sincerely get behind that a last minute entry is always a possibility here. The whole dynamic makes for a relatively unpredictable few months. It's the ultimate reality TV show...

[davidpdx]

10. I agree that could happen, but that person would be at a disadvantage

As the deadlines for filing in some states have passed. I believe I read somewhere Missouri's deadline had passed. I'd have to believe Iowa and New Hampshire would be out of the question. Now it wouldn't be impossible for someone to come along and win the nomination, but I think it would be a huge uphill battle

You'd almost have to have someone like Bloomberg change his mind and decide to run.

[coalition_unwilling]

4. I assume your use of the malapropism "gorilla campaign" was

deliberate and with malice aforethought? :)

[tledford]

7. From your lips to God's ear. eom

[Obamakarma]

8. Not Sure I Follow...