Obama's Troubles in Virginia

[xchrom]

http://www.thenation.com/blog/164044/obamas-troubles-virginia

Politico is right to say that Virginia will be a tough get for President Obama in 2012. Despite changing demographics and recent Democratic gains, Virginia is still a fairly conservative state—Republicans control the General Assembly and each of the state executive branch seats, as well as the majority of House seats, thanks to the 2010 midterm elections. What’s more, Virginians aren’t too hot on Obama’s performance—according to the most recent pollfrom Quinnipiac University, Virginia voters disapprove of Obama 52 percent to 45 percent. In a head-to-head match-up with Mitt Romney, the front-runner in the Republican race for president, Obama gets 44 percent to Romney’s 45 percent.

Politico traces the beginning of Virginia’s discontent—particularly among independents—to the 2009 statewide elections, when voters swept Democrats out across the state, and ended Democratic control of the governorship by electing Republican Bob McDonnell. Here’s Politico with it’s analysis:

f there was any state to warn Obama that the independent voters who gave him his historic victory were deeply disaffected, it was again Virginia.

Just a year later, in 2009, Republican Governor Robert McDonnell, running against Obama’s record in the White House, won independents by a 2 to 1 majority in a victory that served as a prelude to the massive GOP gains of 2010.

The problem is that Obama’s poor showing with Virginia independents in 2011 isn’t actually connected to McDonnell’s win in 2009, especially given Obama’s high approval rating among Virginians in 2009. In reality, Democratic losses that year had more to do with turnout than it did with any particular disapproval with Obama. That is, the people who elected Bob McDonnell weren’t the same ones who voted for Barack Obama.

[Crazy Dave]

1. I can't remember which states were close in '08

But I'm sure most of them are goners for Obama in '12.

[Tesha]

4. Obama won NH in 2008 and our state went >75% Red in 2010.

In 2008, thanks to Obama's then-coat-tails, Democrats
staged an historic take-over of most levels of government
in our traditionally very-Republican state.

Then, in 2010, the Republicans regained veto-proof majorities
in our State House and State Senate and a unanimous majority
on our Executive Council (five ~Lt. Governors). This was a better
position than the Republicans have been in for decades!

Obama won't be winning NH in 2012 and Democratic candidates
are trying to figure out how they can win given the incredible
"negative coat-tails" that Obama will be bringing to all of their
races.

Tesha

[Crazy Dave]

6. Democratic candidates are going "Tea Party" the closer we get to elections n/t

[Proud Liberal Dem]

16. Indiana voted for Obama in 2008 (first time for Dems since LBJ)

I'm fairly sure that Indiana will not go for him again in 2012. His poll numbers aren't great here and we had our own "Teabagger Tidal Wave" that swept the Indiana General Assembly last year and this year we got a bunch of new anti-gay, anti-abortion, anti-illegal immigrant, and anti-union legislation either get proposed or, in most cases, passed and signed into law. Oh yeah, we also got vouchers and state takeovers of local schools and could wind up becoming a "right-to-work" state this year. :eyes: Tea Party-favorite Rep. Mike Pence will be running for Governor next year too. :puke:

I just hope we win back the Indiana House or the Governors Mansion next year.

[Tesha]

2. Rec'ced to 0; the "Hide All Bad News Brigade" us up early this morning. (NT)

[emilyg]

13. I rec'd. Still at 0

[AtomicKitten]

15. Good news: The piece states the 2010 losses had more to do with turnout than to O's approval rating.

That's good news, not bad. Pres O's bus tour has increased approval for his jobs bill as well as his own approval rating, and he hasn't even started campaigning yet.

[uponit7771]

21. Naw...naw....fuck facts, they don't want to hear this

[golfguru]

17. +10

[leveymg]

3. The fact is, Obama quickly turned off the progressive base in Northern VA and Richmond

Without all those eager door-knocking progressive volunteers doing GOTV, Obama may well loose this state. Contrary to center-right dogma, the independents don't decide this state - it's turnout in predominantly liberal Northern VA, the urban vote in Richmond, and the student vote in Charlottesville and Blacksburg that makes the difference.

The bipartisanship BS that has characterized this Administration's approach since Day One is at fault.

[Blue_Tires]

5. You're forgetting Hampton Roads, which was teabaggy even before there

was a name for it...

A sizable amount of blame also goes to Tim Kaine, who was given the keys to the party and promptly shat in the driver's seat on both a state and national level...I'm wondering if he actually DID anything other than collect a check while running the DNC...

[leveymg]

7. NoVa - 2.6 mil, Hampton Roads-Tidewater - 1.7 mil. It's all about voter turnout.

[Hippo_Tron]

18. The DNC Chair is a fundraiser, the position has almost no operational responsibilities

The people responsible for any poor decisions on the DNC's part are the White House political team led by David Aexrold.

[ProSense]

8. So

"Obama's Troubles in Virginia"

...they cite a poll that shows the President's numbers are improving?

Let's see if that trend continues.

[WI_DEM]

9. 45% approval in VA, that's higher than his national approval in several polls.

[AtomicKitten]

10. Nationally Pres Obama is trending up and he hasn't really started campaigning yet.

[dionysus]

11. shh, don't dissappoint all the people who want him to lose....

[AtomicKitten]

12. Ride the wave. Yeehaw ...

[FrenchieCat]

14. So pathetically obvious......

:boring:

[blkmusclmachine]

19. 11-Dimensional Chess has been working SO BRILLIANTLY up to now:

Regardless of who "wins" in 2012, we'll still end up with GOP Legislation. Might as well make the GOP take credit for their own disasterous national policies. Why give the GOP 98% of everything they want, and then turn around and take the heat when everything goes to hell??

Enough of the phony "bi-partisanship."

[yellowcanine]

20. I am wondering if 2012 is the year for a Dem breakthrough in Texas.

Assuming Romney is the nominee, he will not be able to count on a whole lot of help from Perry - the two hate each other and they are both burning bridges. Even if they eventually "make nice" their supporters will carry on the feud and Perry's support will be mostly lip service. On top of that Republicans are doing everything they can to drive the Hispanic vote into the Democratic column.

[ileus]

22. Obama not only will carry Virginia again, but he'll take WV back in 2012.

You heard it here first....