MEMO: What;s the Matter with Romney?
TO: Interested Parties
FR: Bill Burton, Priorities USA Action
RE: SUNDAY MEMO – What’s the matter with Romney?
Rick Perry’s sudden decline and Herman Cain’s concurrent surge reinforces an important point about the primary: Republican voters are still desperately shopping for an alternative to Romney. While he may well end up the nominee, it is only because their voters will have exhausted all other options.
The Facts:
1. Romney’s support is stagnant -- This week’s NBC/Wall Street Journal poll: Cain 27% (up 22% from six weeks earlier), Romney 23% (unchanged from six weeks earlier and down seven points from July), Perry at 16% (down 22%.)
In the 81 public polls of Republican primary voters taken this year, Romney has received 25% or less in 77. In the four polls where he exceeded 25%, he never exceeded one-third of the vote. In their recent poll that showed a virtual tie between Romney and Cain, Gallup noted that the level of support for both of them is “well below where most previous Republican nominees stood in October of the year prior to the election.”
2. Romney’s favorables haven’t gone up since 2008 -- In the same WSJ/NBC poll, Romney’s overall positive favorability has remained virtually unchanged since 2008. In all polls, Romney favorability has remained between 21 and 28 percent. Today, Romney has 27% favorability, the same as March 2010. His negative favorability has grown relatively consistently since 2009.
3. Romney’s voters are among the most willing to look elsewhere -- In Public Policy Polling results, 69% of Romney’s voters said they “might end up supporting someone else.” That is 17 points higher than Rick Perry, 14 points higher than Ron Paul and slightly higher than Newt Gingrich.
http://prioritiesusaaction.blogspot.com/2011/10/memo-whats-matter-with-romney.html