The October Surprise Crystal Balls
After this year’s death of longtime CBS anchor Walter Cronkite, one of our readers was examining Cronkite archival footage and was surprised to find a clip of Cronkite leading a discussion of CBS correspondents on Election Night 1980 about why Reagan had won a landslide after the pre-election polls had shown a much closer race.
Correspondent Leslie Stahl noted how the coincidence of the first anniversary of the Iran hostage-taking falling on Election Day had forced Americans to relive the year-long humiliation and thus they turned to Reagan, a perceived hard-liner who would confront American adversaries.
That comment reminded Cronkite of an earlier interview he had done with Henry Kissinger who, Cronkite said, was “suggesting tonight that he thinks that Reagan being in the White House will help get
back and he bets they’ll get back shortly after the Inaugural. Well, that’s still some time. That means that Henry Kissinger must be thinking in terms of long negotiations in order to put the package together.”
As it turned out, of course, Kissinger’s prediction was right on the money. Immediately after Reagan was inaugurated on Jan. 20, 1981, the hostages were freed and Reagan basked in the perception that his tough-guy persona had done the trick.
But Kissinger wasn’t just some distant observer when it came to the hostage crisis. He had been there from the outset, in 1979 when he worked with Chase Manhattan Bank chairman David Rockefeller – who had been the Shah’s banker – to pressure President Carter to admit the exiled Shah into the United States for cancer treatment.
According to Rockefeller’s autobiography Memoirs, Kissinger’s role was “to publicly criticize the Carter administration for its overall management of the Iranian crisis and other aspects of its foreign policy” while other Rockefeller associates made private demands for the Shah’s admission.
Carter’s decision to relent – and let the Shah in – provoked radical elements in Tehran to target the U.S. Embassy for a takeover. When they stormed the Embassy on Nov. 4, 1979, the hostage crisis began.
http://www.consortiumnews.com/2009/111309.html