Why Rick Perry Won't Win

[jefferson_dem]

Why Rick Perry Won't Win
By Kevin Drum

Sat Aug. 13, 2011 12:21 PM PDT

...

1.Everyone looks good before they get into the race. Remember how great Tim Pawlenty was supposed to be? But just wait a few months for Perry to get beat up by his opponents, for the oppo research to kick in, for all the big profiles to start appearing, and for a gaffe or two to get some play. He'll start to look distinctly more human then.

2.He's too Texan. Sorry. Maybe that's fair, maybe it's not. But even in the Republican Party, not everyone is from the South and not everyone is bowled over by a Texas drawl. Perry is, by a fair amount, more Texan than George W. Bush, and an awful lot of people are still suffering from Bush fatigue.

3.He's too mean. He'll have a hard time pretending he's any kind of compassionate conservative, and outside of Texas you still need a bit of that. Aside from being politically ruthless and famous for holding grudges, Perry's the kind of guy who almost certainly executed an innocent man, never pretended to care about it, and brazenly disbanded a commission investigating it. This famously produced the following quote in a 2010 focus group: “It takes balls to execute an innocent man.” In Texas, maybe that works. In the rest of the country, not so much.

4.He's too dumb. Go ahead, call me an elitist. I'm keenly aware that Americans don't vote for presidents based on their SAT scores, but everything I've read about Perry suggests that he's a genuinely dim kind of guy. Not just incurious or too sure about his gut feelings, like George Bush, but simply not bright enough to handle the demands of the Oval Office. Americans might not care if their presidents are geniuses, but there's a limit to how doltish they can be too.

5.He's too smarmy. He might be fine one-on-one, but on a national stage Perry looks like a tent revival preacher or a used car salesman. Again: this might play OK in Texas and a few other places, but it will wear thin quickly in most of the country.

<SNIP>

http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/08/why-rick-perry-wont-win

[Drale]

1. Number 1 is the reason no Repuke will get elected president this round

They are going to rip each other a part and the party is already so fractured that every repuke voter loves its own candidate and will vote for them in the main election no matter what, even if they have to write them in.

[Enrique]

2. dumb thing for any pundit to say about any candidate

Rick Perry has tons of money. He can win. I don't know if he will win, but he has a good shot.

[jefferson_dem]

5. Perry *can* win ... but he won't. Read the caveats Drum prefaced his points with.

Of course, it's all speculation. But Drum's analysis (re: Perry) makes as much sense as anything else I've seen today.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. I Rather Face Him Than Romney, Pawlenty, Or Huntsman

But it's foolish to underestimate him; especially if the economy is in the doldrums...

[underpants]

8. Money does rule but we will see how he does with rolling into the hotel at 12AM

and doing a pancake breakfast at 6 while still having to do fund raising phone calls all day in between 5 meetings and two stump speeches.

[MilesColtrane]

23. That may be a saving grace.

I think that Perry may be a lazier campaigner than Bush and even Reagan.

He's used to having shit handed to him, and not bothering with debating his opponents.

[lunatica]

3. Yeah, well he'll just pick a prick for Vice President and win, just like Bush

Bush was/is all the things you mention above. Stupid and mean. But he didn't run the country. Cheney did. AFter the Supreme Court selected him.

I'm not as sure as you seem to be.

[AlinPA]

25. Perry can win with Rubio as VP on the ticket.

[otohara]

41. Ugh

Two gigantic assholes!

[onehandle]

4. He's the actual cartoon that Dubya tried to be, but failed.

No matter how much Bush tried, he could not appear that dumb or elitist.

[jefferson_dem]

9. He's Brolin's version of Boosh in W...

Hollywood caricature of real life dunderheaded POTUS meets reality.

[underpants]

10. When any male under the age of 50 sees the ROTC shot they will think of

[Vincardog]

6. Any GOPher could win if BO and co continue to alienate Democratic voters

To be clear I am talking about Liberals like me. The slim minority that didn't do enough to get him elected last time and may not be fooled again

[jefferson_dem]

11. So you're still on the fence about what to do on November 3, 2012?

Even after watching this freakshow of Neanderthalic Repug POTUS aspirants take form? Wow. Good luck with that.

[Vincardog]

12. I have always said I will never vote for a republican

[jefferson_dem]

14. So then your choices are stay home, waste your vote on a certain loser...

or do the only right thing. Got it. :hi:

[Vincardog]

15. Or I can campaign and vote for every Democratic candidate on the ballot

[jefferson_dem]

16. YES!

:thumbsup:

[liberal N proud]

13. He will grab the extreme religious right

He looks and sounds like he is speaking at a revival meeting.

[jzodda]

17. I don't buy into your premise. Why? GW BUSH

He fit into many of your numbers: Too Texan, Too dumb and he won 2x.


Here's what he has:

Sitting Gov of a large state-the only one in the race. That he is not a member of Congress when 80% of people hate Congress now is a good thing for hum.

Access to large campaign money-He may well be the largest Repub beneficiary of Citizens United going forward.

So he has things in his favor for him getting the nomination. After that we shall see. This election is more going to be about Obama and not Perry. So if the public perceives that things are improving by Nov 2012 we can win. If the public perceives things to be all wrong then we may well lose no matter who the nominee is and no matter who we had in there as President.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. I Agree With A Small Caveat

No matter how bad things are the Republican nominee has to at least attain a certain threshhold of plausibility as a potential POTUS.

[Cosmocat]

19. Sorry, but in the republican party, year 2011, 2-5 are positives

This list is based on some idealistic fantasy of an american electorate that simply does not exist now.

Remember 2009 to 1010, and "tea partiers" storming and screaming out town halls? Remember the freaks who got elected less than a year ago who SERIOUSLY wanted the country to default?

Sorry, mean, dumb and smarmy are friggen prerequisits (sp) for republicans in this day and age. The media will adore him, because the Rs are going to adore him.

We have seen this show with Bush, who had NO GOD DARNED reason to be elected:

The MSM carried the meme of "a guy you would like to have a beer with" in 1999 to cover up the fact a moron was running against a pretty brilliant and decent guy, who was painted as "arrogant." Up is down, down is up ...

2004 - the idiot who had the worst terrorist attack on our soil on his watch and bagged on serving abroad was painted as TOUGH and RESOLUTE and KEPT US SAFE! vs the weak, unamerican guy who actually served and was wounded in battle.

Sorry, folks, this is it ...

TOUGH job creator Perry vs WEAK job killer BO.

Just like Bush was never held to account for all of his failings and indescretions, neither will Perry ...

[calimary]

20. I hope to God you're correct.

The idea of having to listen to another Texas drawl for another four years makes me GAG!

[no_hypocrisy]

21. Beg to differ. I concur with H. L. Menken.

"No one in this world, so far as I know-and I have searched the record for years, and employed agents to help me-has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people."

Read more: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Who_first_said_never_underestimate_the_stupidity_of_the_American_electorate#ixzz1UxLXlOFu

[Tarheel_Dem]

27. Mencken also said....

"The worst government is the most moral. One composed of cynics is often very tolerant and humane. But when fanatics are on top there is no limit to oppression."

"As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."

:rofl:

"The kind of man who wants the government to adopt and enforce his ideas is always the kind of man whose ideas are idiotic."

and of course, this little gem.....

"Liberals have many tails and chase them all."

http://www.watchfuleye.com/mencken.html

To say he was a cynic, would be the world's greatest understatement. :rofl:

[MilesColtrane]

22. Points 1) through 5):

Bush's taking of the White House in 2000 nullifies those arguments.

Point 6): Now that he's in, Perry will rein it in and only court the fundies with code. Don't forget that he's got Bachmann, who actually believes that crazy shit, to help contrast him as a relatively benign candidate.

Point 7): I don't see how the author can assert this after watching the Tea Party's influence on national politics. Yesterday's radical right wing ideology has become today's talking points with the GOP.

Point 8): That's why Perry will return to his roots as a mainstream, greedhead (fiscal) Republican.

Point 9): If the economy continues to suck, his actual record won't matter to most people. The fact that he is something different will.

Point 10): The Republican Party will ride whatever nag is in the lead, precisely because they really, really want to beat Obama. Romney has the taint (heh, heh) of a former loser, and he'll be tossed overboard at the first sign of weakness.

[AlinPA]

24. Bush was somewhat "friendly stupid", Perry is "nasty stupid'. nt

[Ilsa]

26. Another thing: he doesn't like to debate or do interviews.

He avoids getting trapped by his own words by trying not to ever have to go off-script.

[BackToThe60s]

28. Unrecced on behalf of the 1980 Election

Carter's camp was drooling over the possibility of Ronald Witless Reagan as the Republican nominee.

Be careful what you wish for. :(

[Tarheel_Dem]

29. AFAIK, there are no hostages to bargain with, this time around.

;)

[BackToThe60s]

30. Except the future of the country

[Tarheel_Dem]

33. You made a ridiculous analogy, and I just pointed out the huge difference.

We'll let the American people decide, won't we? :hi:

[BackToThe60s]

35. We might

The Powers That Be might NOT.

[jefferson_dem]

32. I unrec your post for exaggerated exercise in straw-man tackling...

There's seriously no need to get all wigged out ...

The content in the OP is just one respected blogger's fairly reasoned (imo) take on the latest, greatest, Republican scumbag nominee-want-to-be. Drum is in nobody's "camp".

And we all know about 1980 and Reagan. Big fucking deal. Is that your rebuttal to Drum's point-by-point argument that Perry is "more hat than cattle"? Either way, I do hope you keep defending the merits of a Perry candidacy. This will be fun. :popcorn:

[BackToThe60s]

38. psst! dude!

i don't think you can unrec a reply!

[jefferson_dem]

40. Oh, I forgot to say....Welcome to DU!

:hi:

[totodeinhere]

31. Ever since I started reading DU I have been hearing about why this or that Republican will not win.

But they keep winning anyway. Sure Perry is dumb. He is dumb enough to be reelected three times and become the longest serving governor in Texas history. I am tired of underestimating these guys to our own eventual peril. They underestimated Reagan. They underestimated Bush. And now they are underestimating Perry.

[jefferson_dem]

34. Please...

Nobody is recommending "we" underestimate Perry. Read Drum's piece again, including the caveats.

Of course, let's work like hell to be absolutely sure that no Republican (including Perry) wins the General Election, thereby proving Drum wrong! Huzzah!

[MadMaddie]

36. These are good reasons however; we went to bed during

the election that Junior won and we thought he lost....

We cannot take anything for granite. We have to actively work to make sure that Perry and his ilk do not win.

[Ter]

37. You forgot the number 1 reason: He's a Bilderburg Group attendee

Tea and New World Order Shadow Government don't mix.

[Skittles]

39. OMG jefferson_dem

I feel like it's a redo - another fucking nitwit Texan running for prez - I CAN'T TAKE IT I TELL YOU