What Do You Think The Likelihood Of A Double Dip Recession Is?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

[jschurchin]

1. Not Likely at All

First we have to get out of the one we have been in since 2007, to get into a second one.
Think about this. More Americans are unemployed now then 2007. And this is a recovery?
We are STILL in a recession folks, and the real numbers prove it. Don't forget, Enron convinced a large number of people all was well, and we all know how that turned out. Our government with their resources can and will try to convince you all is well. The real question is, Do You Think The Last Recession is Really Over?

[SteveM]

3. I see your point. I noted one economist who tracked the GDP

on a graph and noted a possible "M" in the graph; that is, where the graph goes up for a time, then dips, then goes back (now, at this point, nothing unusual as a lightening bolt effect is common even during a sound recovery). But then he noted that the line going up started to fall again as it has been doing, hence the "M." For more-of-the-same?

[JoePhilly]

4. If we use the actual definition of "recession", it did end.

If we are using some popular definition of that term, one which has no specific meaning, then yes, the polls is totally irrelevant.

The OP might as well pull it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I'll Consult Frank Newport Next Time I Construct A Poll

~

[JoePhilly]

7. Just trying to be helpful ... and I did answer your poll.

I'm curious ... am I wrong in my assessment?

Is the goal of the GOP not to cause a double dip?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Of Course It Is

I don't really blame the president.

[JoePhilly]

2. First, your wording if off ...

Your poll uses ...

Very Likely
Likely
Not Very Likely
Not Likely at All

The way you word it ... "not very likely" covers "likely" because "likely" is also not "very likely" ... in fact "not very likely" covers every other choice other than "Very Likely".

I'd suggest that the wording should be balanced, so for instance ... you could go with ...

Very Likely
Likely
Unlikely
Very unlikely

Second ... by when?

In another thread, I point out that DU has predicted the double dip in the summer of 2009, and again in the Summer of 2010. Both times, those predictions were wrong.

Unless the time frame for the "double-dip" prediction is OPEN.

But you don't provide a time frame.

In any case, my vote ... Unlikely.

It certainly could happen. I agree that the House GOP's GOAL is to make it happen and so that does make it some what more likely. And if the GOP Governors continue to hack away at state employees, that situation gets worse.

My sense is that thanks to the GOP House, our economy is going to stagger sideways for a while but we won't have an official double dip.

But I also don't see a huge economic expansion. Not with a GOP house.

[david_vincent]

6. This poll is wrongly framed

Since the recession / depression hasn't ended. The term "double dip" directly implies an end to the first and a beginning to a second. What we will see is simply a prolonged and ongoing misery.

[boxman15]

9. I honestly have no clue.

I am not an economist and won't pretend to be one. We'll all find out soon enough, I guess. I just know cuts won't help (they might not make things worse, either, but it isn't helpful)

I hope for the love of God that this won't turn into a double dipper though. I live around Detroit, and things are already bad enough. The Big 3 are turning around, but in a double dip, they'd probably be right back where they were. And it will look like a full-on depression around here, if it doesn't already. One positive would be the potential for more stimulus if voters take their anger out on the GOP, not Democrats. But that's definitely a big if, and heading back into recession would be disastrous.

[krabigirl]

10. i think we will be in a slow, gradual decline for many, many years.

[Name removed]

11. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Skittles]

12. ZERO, since the FIRST recession is ONGOING

[Dad Infinitum]

13. Nope

A depression is the likely outcome.