Why Presidential polling RIGHT NOW does matter

[aaaaaa5a]

Early polling matters because it tells you where the race is RIGHT NOW.

For instance, Obama will not have a party challenger for the nomination.

Well, why not?

Its because we have data that tells us RIGHT NOW he is more than strong enough for re-election.

That's not always a given.

In 1992, then President George Bush faced a primary challenger because his polling RIGHT THEN told everyone the sitting president was not very strong. The same held true for Carter in 1980. And Ford in 1976. Its interesting that all 3 of those incumbent Presidents lost. This means those early numbers were important, and turned out to ultimately be right. Some have called it the biggest precursor to what will happen in a Presidential election. That alone tells us that the polling numbers RIGHT NOW, do matter.


Secondly, I have looked at Obama's current standing vs where Bush and Clinton were at this point in their first terms. And despite the media's constant biased reporting, Obama is running well ahead of where Bush and Clinton were in regard to challengers. This is why most people wrongly disregard early polls. It's because so often the INCUMBENT IS LOSING only to ultimately win in the end. This time despite everything going on, we have an incumbent that IS CURRENTLY WINING. That bodes well for the future. And is another very good precursor for what will happen in 2012.


Unemployment is at 9%. Obama is getting bashed left and right. Yet the President still leads in places like North Carolina and Pennsylvania? And is actually very competitive in South Carolina?

You have got to be kidding me!

Romney is well known. Palin is well known. These candidates are not like Tim Pawlenty or John Huntsman or even Bill Clinton in 1991 in that they still had room to grow with voters. Heck Palin's name recognition ID nearly tops Obama! If these candidates aren't ahead now, when will they ever be?

If this race is even remotely close right now, when the Obama BILLION DOLLAR MACHINE gets rolling, he is going to be tough to beat. And everyone knows this. This is why there currently is NOT ONE ACTIVE GOP SENATOR OR GOVERNOR running for the republican nomination. When was the last time that was the case with either political party? Go ahead and google it. Its been a long while. You are telling me there is not one sitting GOP Senator that wants to be President? There actions (or lack thereof) tells you what insiders honestly think about where this race is heading.

And how do we know this?

Because we have polling RIGHT NOW that tells us so.


The fact that Obama has very good numbers coming out of places like Pennsylvania, North Carolina and South Carolina DOES MATTER. Heck, even in Massachusetts he currently is running ahead of what Kerry did in 2004 and Dukakis did in 1988! All of this data is very important. And while not automatic, it tells us Obama will be in a very strong position in 2012.

[Hardrada]

1. I don't think they are including the many who are disillusioned

and who won't vote for those who stabbed us in the back when we could have won triumphs for the working people. They are our own version of "November criminals."

[aaaaaa5a]

2. All elections are a choice between the lesser of two evils. nt

[OKNancy]

5. sometimes you just have to be pragmatic and practical.

Of course I had no illusions in the first place, so I'm not disillusioned.
Additionally, I don't know how he could have "won triumphs" more than he already has given the current REAL political climate.

[uponit7771]

19. Some people are unable or unwilling to pay attention to what Obama has already done

[Cal33]

23. And aren't those who are disillusioned and will stay at home on election day also being polled,

just like anybody else? Don't today's polls take their negative votes into account,
and Obama still comes out the winner?

I'm not too happy with Obama either, but I'll be damned before I stay at home or cast
a vote in favor of Repub. criminals bent on destroying democracy in our nation for
their own personal profit.

[WI_DEM]

3. His polling is pretty good. It's actually better than Reagan or Clinton at this point in their

presidencies. If the economy improves over the next year and five months he is a lock. If it gets worse, it will be tight, but given who he has against him--he would probably win.

[OHdem10]

4. The biggest concern should be: thepeople who feel betrayed

abandoned and disillusioned.

[OKNancy]

6. snap out of it!

n/t

[aaaaaa5a]

7. Are you forgetting

Clinton gave us NAFTA and GATT and sided with Republicans to end many social service programs.

LBJ gave us the escalation of the Vietnam War

Carter gave us high gas prices, inflation and Tehran. His administration also gave rise to 12 years of GOP rule that we are still trying to dig out of.



There are no perfect people or administrations. But if you take a look and are objective, you will see the one we currently have ain't bad.

[Enthusiast]

9. So because these other presidents disappointed us

we should find disappointment acceptable in Obama?

This time there are some significant issues at stake. One is collective bargaining rights for teachers and another is in preserving the New Deal. Without these two the Democrats are nothing more than Republicans with a conscience. So this time, betrayal in unacceptable, completely unacceptable. Obama had better make his positions clear to his supporters and he had better do that immediately.

[jaxx]

8. Why is that?

No one is more important than the next person.

[Enthusiast]

10. And corporate money is just as good as individual

contributions. :sarcasm:

I figure you will find out how wrong you are.

[jaxx]

11. That seems off topic.

I guess you didn't have an answer.

[Dr Fate]

13. Exactly.This thread is about winning elections.

Not about how elections are funded. What in the world does funding elections have to dow with the topic of winning elecions?

Typical tactic of the professional left- to distract us with off topic, non-issues.

[Dr Fate]

12. We will worry about all that after we get DEMS re-elected.

We need to get our priorities straight- and making sure our boys keep their seats is #1.

First, lets get DEMS re-elected, then we will worry about the malcontents.

[great white snark]

14. Oh shit, not the pretend centrist persona again.

Maybe some kind of persecution disorder?

[Dr Fate]

16. Oh shit, not the pretend far left persona again.

I'm Right and you know it- getting DEMS re-elected is the focus at this point- we are no going to cater to the professional left, but to the center-right mainstream. It's called winning elections.

I stand by my comments- We can deal with the far left nader voters (or not) after we win.

I guess Obmama, Rahm, Reid, etc. are all "pretend centrists" too- since they agree with me.

If there is a persecution disorder involved on either of our parts, then surely it is a pretend one. ;)

[uponit7771]

20. We'll give them facts like the Obama promise meter, facts not just feelings

[Cal33]

25. My biggest concern is that if the Repubs. win, this time they wil go all out

to finish what G. W. Bush had started -- total elimination of the Constitution of the United States,
total eradication of democracy in our nation, and a complete take-over of our country by Corporations
that will forcibly take all the nation's profits, and make the rest of the American people into their
wage slaves.

As it is, America's corporations are already part-way there. If Repubs. win in 2012, it will only
complete the job.

[Honeycombe8]

27. Well, you certainly have a right to vote for anyone you want. When you find a politician who

has fulfilled every dream and promise of every voter, please let us know who s/he was. We'll recruit him/her to be President!

And then pigs will fly.O8)

[Eagle Mall]

15. Obama will win by more than he did the first time.

Sadly, for the Repigs, John McCain looks like a giant of a man compared to the current crew.

[DCBob]

17. Agreed. If nothing else it shows America has not given up on Obama..

Considering the economic situation you might think many would have. Obama has strong staying power with the American people. He connects to many and they trust him even in our dire situation.

[aaaaaa5a]

18. I just hope these numbers hold up! NT

[pscot]

21. Excellent post

You make a strong case.

[Avant Guardian]

22. Early polls are hypothetical

...and thus meaningless.

[Blasphemer]

24. I think polling is always a good thing

I think the problem comes in when people (including those in the media) use early polls to fan the flames or make pre-mature pronouncements.

[Robbins]

26. Also

back In 1983 Mondale and John Glen were actully leading Reagan In national polls.

If Obama was so easy to beat why are some not running,and why does he lead 98 percent of the polls?

Bush 1 kiss of death came when he was ignorent of there being a recisson.He for awhile claimed there wasn't one.

All recent presidents who lose face a primary first.That Isn't happening.

Right now it Is just Republicans critizing Obama and they still have trouble against him.Just Imagne when Obama starts toa ttack the
eventual nominee.If romney gets through the primary he has another thing coming In general election.

In a debate the minute Romney critizes Obama on being on apolaga tour Obama can point out his successes In fighting terrorists.And
the minute Romney critizes the Health Care reform Obama has the Romney plan In MA to hit back on.

Obama's people will have a field day with all of Romney's flipflopps In ads.