Wow! Right now Obama would beat all but one GOP hopeful in this very red state!

[aaaaaa5a]

SOUTH CAROLINA!


Obama currently has a 43% approval rating in South Carolina

Romney 50/Obama 41 (Only a slight change from a poll 4 months ago showing Romney with a 49-42 edge)

Obama 42/Pawlenty 42

Obama 43/Cain 40

Obama 48/ Palin 43

Remember, South Carolina is the REDDEST OF RED STATES. This is suppose to be a NON-COMPETITIVE STATE.

Although the Senator for South Carolina is not running, the President is shockingly competitive with popular S.C. Senator Jim DeMint, trailing just 47-44 in a hypothetical Presidential state matchup. (within the margin of error)


From the article.

The story

"The story has not really changed since PPP last took a look at the race for the White House in South Carolina. In late January, President Obama trailed Mitt Romney and the state’s junior Senator Jim DeMint, while leading the other candidates tested by small margins. That is still true. Romney tops the president, 50-41, up slightly from 49-42 four months ago and now matching John McCain’s surprisingly close victory margin in 2008. DeMint also leads, 47-44 (47-45 in January), not a good showing for a native son, particularly in a state in which Obama should not be competitive."



The good

"The president is competitive against DeMint and everyone but Romney, the current leader in the Palmetto State’s GOP primary contest. In fact, facing any other nominee right now, Obama would be the first Democrat to take the state’s newly expanded nine electoral votes since Jimmy Carter 36 years ago. Obama ties Tim Pawlenty at 42%, and leads Newt Gingrich, 46-44 (44-43); Herman Cain, 43-40; and Sarah Palin, 48-43 (47- 41). Against everyone but Romney, Obama leads with independents and earns more Republican votes than any of his potential opponents do Democratic votes."


The bad

“South Carolina’s not a state that should really be winnable for Barack Obama but if Republicans nominate one of their weaker candidates it’s possible,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If he did win the state it would likely be part of a 400+ plus electoral vote landslide.”

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SC_0610.pdf

[sharp_stick]

1. 43 - 40 over Cain

could you imagine that matchup in SC. There would be a lot of rednecks in a mighty tizzy if that was the option they had. I'd imagine about a 35% voter turnout with the rest boarded up in their basements waiting on the end times. ;-)

[aaaaaa5a]

2. If hell froze over and Cain were nominated

you would see a third party candidate, similar to George Wallace in the 1960s and early 70s. Voting in the deep south is all about race.

[bobburgster]

3. Well, something positive about Obama for a change!

About time, listening to the MSM I was beginning to wonder if he stood any chance at all in 2012.

[aaaaaa5a]

4. His polling has actually looked very good.

What the media is doing in regard to "cherry picking numbers" and not putting polls in proper context is downright shameful.

Obama is running ahead of Clinton at this point in his first term. If the election were held today he would easily win reelection.

Obama's first term approval ratings thus far have been much higher than Reagan or Clinton. Of course you won't see any of these facts on the nightly news.




I always believe a persons actions are worth more than what they say.

So look at two things


#1- Look at the number of potential GOP candidates that refused to run?

Why? Trust me its not because they don't have any egos and don't want to be President. Its because they knew they could not win and it would be better to wait for 2012. Haley Barber even admitted so.

There currently is not one active Governor or Senator seeking the GOP nomination. THAT SAYS A LOT ABOUT WHAT THE INSIDERS THINK IN REGARD TO THE SHAPE OF THE 2012 RACE.



#2-While not 100% accurate, InTrade is a pretty good barometer of what is going to happen. Its really an underrated tool. InTrade is where people gamble on political outcomes. They use real money. That means they are serious. That means they do their home work. On InTrade Obama is a huge favorite for re-election. And despite the media onslaught, his gambling numbers haven't really changed much in a long while.





People's words say the President is in trouble. People's actions tell us a different story.

[bobburgster]

6. I realize you are correct.....just fed up with the biased "reporting".

It just keeps getting worse and worse. Objective reporters are becoming extinct.

[aaaaaa5a]

7. Agreed! NT

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

9. MSM and DU! n/t

[Name removed]

5. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[aaaaaa5a]

8. Romney has high name recognition

but his policies aren't nearly as well known. This is why there is a part of me that believes that Romney is ALREADY PEAKING in regard to how high he will go in the polls. Once the race really begins, and the right wing gets a look at him, I think his numbers will go down.

This is a man who has fired thousands of people, opposed the auto bailouts which saved US car manufacturers (Hello Michigan!) and supported health care until 2 years ago. Lets not forget he is a Mormon who was pro choice for most of his life.

Romney has a long way to go!


I wouldn't make him the dominate favorite in South Carolina just yet.

[Sheepshank]

10. And consider this....

...these voters think they aleady know everything there is to know about Obama. And he is still coming out on top. The other candidates have a relatively unknown platform and track record...not without a ton of hunting. Just wait until it becomes more widely known and talked about, all of that voting history, and changing minds and religious zealotry coming to light. It'll be the Palin effect for many for sure.

[customerserviceguy]

11. It's still early

And the Repubes have not begun to focus on even the top two or three for their nomination.

If it's Mittens (doubtful with the fundie opposition), then it will probably be a "fresh face" that we have won with for the last sixty years, whenever we took the White House back from the GOP. And if it is Romney, expect his Mormon legions to use the efforts that they haven't seen since their missionary days to push him hard. He may not raise the billion that Obama is expected to come up with, but he'll spend every dime he has, and every nickel he can get the Mormon faithful to appropriate.

It's a long struggle, and unless the unemployment numbers turn back around (like they appeared to earlier this year) it's not going to be pretty for the President. There's not another Osama bin Laden to kill.