It's Not the End of the World-Why we can survive a Republican Congress

babylonsister

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Tue Nov-02-10 10:43 AM
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It's Not the End of the World-Why we can survive a Republican Congress

I know, cold comfort, but some (for me anyway).

http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=its_not_the_end_of_the_world

It's Not the End of the World
Why we can survive a Republican Congress
Paul Waldman | November 2, 2010 | web only

Days before the midterms, President Obama makes a final get-out-the-vote push for Democratic candidates in Bridgeport, Connecticut. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

When Barack Obama was elected in 2008, many Republicans went berserk. The governor of Texas began talking about seceding from the Union, religious conservatives literally saw the new president as the Antichrist and decided Armageddon was around the corner, and people even started listening to Glenn Beck. Now, faced with the likelihood of a Republican takeover of the House of Representatives (and the small but real possibility of the Senate turning Republican as well), Democrats have to decide just how freaked out to be.

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Don't get me wrong -- I'm not among those who believe that having a Republican Congress is just what the doctor ordered for Obama's political fortunes. It may prove politically useful for the administration to have a foil, and when Americans get to know John Boehner and the gang, they're not likely to be particularly impressed. What matters most are results, and with such an oppositional opposition, there won't be much in the way of results coming from Congress.

There's a difference, however, between getting less of what you want through Congress and getting an avalanche of conservative legislation -- something Republicans will be unable to make happen. It's not that they won't be able to do some meaningful harm, but the harm they do will be mostly negative in nature. In other words, they will be able to stop the Obama administration from doing some of the things it wants to do, but they won't be moving the Republican agenda forward.

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If Republicans take the House, there's also a good chance they'll lose it right back in 2012. If they do win the House, it will be by a small margin. And in 2012, they'll probably suffer significant losses. First of all, provided the economy looks better in two years than it does today, chances are that President Obama is going to romp to re-election -- like Ronald Reagan did in 1984 after suffering losses in 1982, and like Bill Clinton did in 1996 after suffering losses in 1994 -- and if he does, there will be some coattails in congressional races. Second, the Republican class of 2010 is going to include a lot of inexperienced, inept, and just plain crazy people who are going to be vulnerable to challenge when they have to run in a year not characterized by 9.6 percent unemployment and a general mood of rage.

Nothing is certain in politics, and the next two years could turn into a nightmare. But it's more likely it'll be mildly unpleasant, not catastrophic. The country will survive, just as it has survived before. And before you know it, the pendulum will swing back.