Atmospherics are terrible for Reid, but he will hold on (Ralston)

[jefferson_dem]

Atmospherics are terrible for Reid, but he will hold on
By Jon Ralston (contact)

Sunday, Oct. 31, 2010 | 2 a.m.

Harry Reid or Sharron Angle is dead, last in an occasional series:

It just feels as if Reid is going to lose.

Forget the enthusiasm gap — that word is too mild. There is a passion gap in this race that is palpable. You don’t find many people shivering with excitement to vote for Reid. But the feverish animation of voters hot to oust Reid is unlike anything I have experienced in nearly 25 years of covering politics. And it seems to have been building since January, evidenced by Reid’s inability to move his highly elevated disapproval rating.

It just feels as if he is going to lose.

But I don’t think he will. Why?

First, let me be clear on this tradition of predictions. It is not a wish list but a walking out on a limb, so I can either crow afterward or eat same. I base them on data I am privy to and my gut. I have had much success in the past — look it up. But if ever there were a year for my lifetime batting average to take a hit, this is the one.

So take this for what it’s worth:

Harry Reid is the most resilient figure in Nevada political history. He should not even be here. He lost a U.S. Senate race in 1974, embarrassed himself in a mayoral race in 1975 and should have lost his re-election bid in 1998. But he found a way to win 12 years ago, and he will again Tuesday.

How? Let me count the ways:

<SNIP>

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/oct/31/atmospherics-are-terrible-reid-he-will-hold/

[depakid]

1. "...should have lost his re-election bid in 1998"

Nevada's "None of These candidates" choice was key to his squeaking by Ensign in '98.

If he manages to again, it will also likely be due to "none of these."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Nevada,_1998

[Phx_Dem]

2. Please God, do not let that atrocious wingnut lunatic win.