http://www.sos.state.ia.us/pdfs/elections/2010/genabsenteetotals.pdfDemocrats have requested 165,143 ballots and returned 130,941
Republicans have requested 135,772 ballots and returned 112,314
No Party has requested 71,553 ballots and returned 51,652
Dem: 130,941 44.3%
GOP: 112,314 38.0%
N/P: 51,652 17.5%
So could the Dems be leading overall? It's possible. Let's say that Dems are voting for say, Chet Culver, for Governor by 90% and that Culver is getting 10% of the GOP vote. Now indies, according to polls, are breaking for the GOP by about 20-points, but I'll give them an even higher edge in Iowa, with the GOP candidate getting indies by 64-36 percent--a 28-point edge. Put all those figures together and the Democratic candidate has 147,672 votes out of the 295,132 ballots returned and just over 50% of the total vote. And if indies are going to the GOP by the national average of about 20-points, then the Dems could have an even bigger edge. Of course this is just me playing numbers games.