Larry Sabato makes his final election prediction

[Valienteman]

Slight changes to the forecast in the House, from 47 to 55.

Senate: GOP +8
House: GOP +55
Governor: GOP +8-9

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

[Uzybone]

1. will he lose his job if he is wrong?

[MadMaddie]

2. Of course not!

I think he's full of shit.

[woo me with science]

32. No, there'll just be six more weeks of winter. nt

[opihimoimoi]

3. I suspect he got gobs of money for the "Prediction"

[Valienteman]

4. Wow. Major accusation there

We'll see.

[opihimoimoi]

10. I suspect he is a closet GOPer

[onenote]

11. based on what?

He forecast the 2008 race for Obama almost exactly correctly, when many others had it closer than it turned out (not many had Obama winning as many states as he won). He also overforecast the number of seats Democrats would pick up in the House in 2008 (projecting 26 when the final number ended up at 21).

[opihimoimoi]

15. Its my hunch...not based on anything specific

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. He's Really Not Predicting Anything Different Than Long Time Democratic Pollster Peter Hart

Peter Hart characterizes this as a Cat 4 storm for Democrats.

[FBaggins]

23. Or long time democrat Charlie Cook...

or long-time democrat Nate Silver or any number of others.

[pstokely]

24. What will they say if/when they're wrong?

What you people here say if/they're right? What makes you think they're wrong?

[FBaggins]

26. I don't think they're wrong.

I'd like them to be wrong.

But I think that's it's just as likely that they're overly optomistic as that they're wrong in the other direction.

What will they say? "Oops" ? - Then they'll move on to trying to identify what caused the errors. Hopefully, those reasons will match what many here have speculated for months.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. I Will Say They Were Wrong

But since they all have a long record of being more right than wrong it is logical to assume they will be right in this instance.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. During The 06 Campaign He Went On TV And Said He Had Reliable Evidence George Allen Used The N Word

A noted political scientist joined one of Sen. George Allen's former college football teammates in claiming the senator used a racial slur to refer to blacks in the early 1970s, a claim Allen dismisses as "ludicrously false

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/09/26/politics/main2039589.shtml

[KingFlorez]

5. I see several seats on there that he is very wrong on

Some of those seats he has Lean Republican either have polls that show the Democrat leading or tied, so it's a very misleading list.

[onenote]

7. Can you give a couple of specifics?

I'd like to be able to point to examples in discussing this with others.

[KingFlorez]

25. Walt Minnick, Baron Hill, Mark Schauer

Just to name a few. There are a few others as well.

[FBaggins]

33. Can you provide some that are evidence of "very wrong"?

As opposed to just one that you disagree with.

Hill was two points up in a democratic poll, but also four points below 50.
Minnick was three points up, but six points below 50
Schauer was tied in a democratic poll (at 41)... and has trailed significantly in multiple polls. The fact that one unknown poll gave us a lead is hardly evidence that he's "very wrong".

Any one of them could win... but they could also easily all lose.

[KingFlorez]

35. nevermind

[FBaggins]

39. What you would like and what is historically valid are not the same thing.

An incumbent with 42% of the vote is not in good shape just because he's a couple points ahead of the challenger.

It's also important to recognize that these calls are based on far more than public polling. Seeing a single poll with an incumbent ahead by a point or two isn't going to sway the balance of the other evidence (which may include access to far better polling).

[KingFlorez]

41. Whatever

I'm not saying Democrats are going to win in a landslide or something. All I am saying is some of them are toss-up, rather than Lean Republican. Just because you want the Republicans to take these seats does not mean they will.

[FBaggins]

42. Do you have "whatever" on speedial or something?

He doesn't have a "tossup" category... And doesn't assume that every "leans r" seat will be lost any more than every "leans d" seat will be won.

And can you guess how tiring it is for you to repeat (for the 50th time?) that everyone who lacks a pollyannish optimism must WANT us to lose?

[Codeine]

53. Don't accuse other DUers of wanting Rs to win.

That's fucking bullshit, and you're a jerk for resorting to that.

[onenote]

6. unfortunately, Sabato's track record going back several elections is quite accurate

I actually knew him slightly when we both were in college (long hair past shoulders, well-known opponent of the Vietnam War). His record indicates that he knows his stuff. Maybe this will be the time when he misses the mark, but he's going to have to miss it by a lot for us to keep the House.

[pstokely]

19. What about the last few elections?

?

[onenote]

21. here

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Sabato

Scroll down to predictions. If you don't trust Wikipedia, you can go to the source.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

There is an "archives" tab where you can retrieve his forecasts going back at least to 2002.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Here

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2008110604/


http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2006111001/


http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/psj2004110401/

[Mojambo]

8. Worst case scenario. Not out of the realm of possibility, but probably won't be quite so bad. n/t

[Imajika]

12. Actual, this isn't his worst case scenario...

This is what he expects to happen, his mid case scenario you might say.

He and other analysts have pointed out that things could get worse, and obviously could be much better too.

As of right now, I have a hunch we might do a better than people think. I suspect many of these Tea Party Senate candidates are going down to defeat.

[bigwillq]

9. Hello.

Welcome to DU! :hi:

[Dawson Leery]

14. Sabato the propagandist. Richard Blumenthal is going to crush Linda McMahon

Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown are going to kick their sorry tea thug opponents to the curb!
These races are not "leaning Democrat".
John Hall and Bill Owens are favored to win too.

[Ter]

50. Linda McMahon and Meg Whitman are not "Tea"

They are just like all of the other Republicans of the past. They are the not like real tea baggers, the Joe Millers/Rand Pauls of this world.

[pstokely]

17. Is this with or without Rasmusen?

Probably with Rasmusen

[The Northerner]

18. Let's see how he'll react when his predictions are nowhere close the results

[pstokely]

20. And it what if he is right?

He was right in 2008, what makes you think he's wrong?

[DFLforever]

28. Sabato says he has friends on the ground in Dem leaning

Governor states like CA, CT, MN, VT , that say the Dem could very well come in second instead ? Dem leads don't mean Dem leads????

But Repub leads do?

Because he doesn't seem to have any friends in Repuke leading states like IL OH WI of whom he's asking the same question.

[Cosmocat]

29. He's wrong ...

Nothing personal, he has been good in the past, but to move TOWARD more republican gains right now is just bizarre ...

They are NOT getting the senate, and the house is far from a sure bet, much less a 50 seat swing ...

This shiite has about gotten well past my last nerve ...

[pstokely]

31. Say's who

Do you have a PhD? A lot of delusional people here

[Cosmocat]

37. wtf does a Ph D have to do with it?

he's wrong, it won't be that big of a washout ...

Rs are going to make big gains, but the house is not a sure bet by any means ...

[tritsofme]

38. I just don't see how it's possible for Democrats to emerge with a House majority.

Numbers like these are unprecedented.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-901.html

And this is just one indicator, not much else is painting a rosier picture.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. How Much Deference Does He Deserve For Pretty Much Nailing Every Election Since 1978?

~

[DFLforever]

34. I'm not into deference,myself.

And Sabato could be absolutely right about everything in 2010. I'm just pointing to his comments in regard to a race I'm familiar with, in which the Dem candidate now leads by 12 points and has NEVER been behind in any poll. Certainly, it's possible he could lose ... any candidate could lose an election that hasn't yet occurred.

But his comments seemed odd and suggestive to me of general bias in this election.

[KingFlorez]

36. That's very odd

I don't know what his angle is, but I don't get how he takes Democrats leading as Republicans winning, that logic makes no sense.

[Jennicut]

45. Er...not in Connecticut. McMahon has no chance here. She is falling further behind,

not gaining, in poll after poll. What an idiot.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. Huh

Silver gives her a 0% chance of winning:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[Jennicut]

47. And Malloy, who is the Dem candidate for Gov here has never been behind in the race.

Plus, Owens and Hall both are pulling ahead in the polling in NY. I think we may lose the House but I think Sabato could be off on some races. If they are too close to call they all lean Republican?

[onenote]

48. Since Sabato is calling CT for Blumenthal, why is he an idiot?

Yes, he lists it as "leans" rather than "likely" D, which is the more appropriate classification. But his 8 Senate pick ups for the repubs do not include CT and, in fact, he specifically says that CT is the least likely of the four states that he identifies as "leans" D to turn around and end up in the R column. Moreover, he says that CO, IL, NV, and PA are very close and some of them could switch into the D column, and that "the GOP may well come up one or two short in this category." That doesn't sound terribly idiotic.

[pstokely]

51. Pollsters trying to cover their asses if things don't go as predicted?

?

[onenote]

52. pollsters acknowledging that forecasts can be in a range of predicatability

Would you rather they pretended to have absolute certainty about all 435 House races, 30 plus Senate races etc.?

[kwolf68]

57. Start you own polling service

And go get the results you want. Sabato knows his stuff and i bet dozens to dollars he's pretty close on this election.

The House is going to the Repukkes...we have a chance to hold the senate.

[book_worm]

40. So who are you voting for in the election?

[wisteria]

43. I know we are bound to lose seats in areas where there is a lot of ignorance,

this prediction and it is a prediction, seems fair for the House, I am not so sure about the Senate though. His number for repub wins seems high.

[EmeraldCityGrl]

44. The frightening part is we may lose in areas without a lot

of ignorance. I'm in WA-8 where Patty Murray is running the race of her life and our Rep. is brain dead Dave Reichert.

There is no rational explanation for what is happening here.

[SusanaMontana41]

59. Rove knows other ways for Dems to lose seats.

Close elections are more susceptible to fraud and theft. This is a perfect opportunity for Turd Blossom and his minions to steal a few. We must be vigilant.

[Ter]

49. I predict...

Senate: GOP +7 (48)
House: GOP +52 (230)

Haven't been following many governors races.

[S_E_Fudd]

54. That's about right...

My guess would be...

Senate: +8 (Lieberman caucuses with Repubs, big pressure on Nelsen to switch)
House: +62
Govs: +8

[terrya]

55. I really, really hope he's wrong. But this sounds about right to me.

I THINK Pat Quinn might pull out a win in the Illinois governor's race.

But otherwise, this is pretty much my take.

Again, I'd LOVE for this to be wrong.

[victoryparty]

56. I think 35-40 is more likely

Sabato is a paid numbers man, but I think he is overlooking the last-minute Democratic enthusiasm.

Seeing George Bush (two of them!) at the World Series this weekend will energize the Dems even more!

[kwolf68]

58. Its NOT the Dems

We've lost the independents from most polling data I've seen. The Independents have flipped from D to R for this election. The only thing that could help is those people sit out and the Dem base shows up, but they aren't near as energized as the Repukke base.

Orange Man is your Majority leader as of next Wednesday AM.

I've spoken with someone 'inside' and she tells me if the Dems lose fewer than 45 seats it'll be a miracle. They expect 50+