TheHill Poll Week Three - Two-term incumbents

[FBaggins]

I retract some of my prior comments on this polling series. My assumption was that this week would tell the tale, since open seats and freshmen incumbents were already known to be vulnerable... I thought that this week (2-term incumbents) would measure the marginally safer seats. But of the seats they picked, every one was already rated as a tossup or worse... so there's little surprise in here. Little good news, but little bad news as well.

Two-term Democrats, whose victories helped secure the Speaker’s job for Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), are facing the possibility of a near-wipeout in the Nov. 2 election.

Of 10 reelection races involving sophomore Democrats, Republican challengers are ahead in six and tied in two more, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll

Of 32 battleground districts polled so far by The Hill this fall, Democrats are leading in only three, with four races tied. Republicans are ahead in 25.

,,,snip...

Not all the news is bad for Democrats.


Rep. Michael Arcuri (D-N.Y.) is beating his Republican challenger, Richard Hanna, by 10 points — 47 to 37 percent. The Hill poll finds that Arcuri leads Hanna, a wealthy businessman who ran against him in 2008, by almost 20 points among independents.


Arcuri and Childers are the only Democrats of the 10 races polled to have rejected healthcare reform. In Pennsylvania’s 8th district, Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) is ahead of former Rep. Michael Fitzpatrick (R), 46 to 43 percent, in the poll. Murphy, who has led the charge to repeal the Pentagon’s “Don’t ask, don’t tell” policy, attracted 13 percent of the GOP vote in the survey, compared with only 8 percent of Democrats who said they would cross over for Fitzpatrick. Murphy defeated Fitzpatrick in 2006 to become the first Iraq war veteran elected to Congress.

http://thehill.com/house-polls/thehill-poll-week-3/124937-pelosi-majority-makers-are-facing-electoral-peril