http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x9317209I continue to believe that Murkowski cannot win a write-in campaign. Not everyone is as plugged into the politics as we are. Most people go into the voting booth and vote for one of the names on the ballot. There have been three prior attempts at write-ins here by three popular politicians -- Ernest Gruening, Wally Hickel and Robin Taylor. All three failed.
Taylor's case is particularly instructive here. The Republican nominee that year, John Lindauer, imploded in the time between the primary and the general, much as Joe Miller is doing this year. The Republican Party rapidly put together a write-in campaign for Robin Taylor and actively supported him, but he was still unable to garner enough votes and Tony Knowles became our governor. Many people still voted for Lindauer even though he had been thoroughly disgraced and over 6,000 people misspelled "Robin Taylor" so badly that their intent could not be determined. "Lisa Murkowski" is much more difficult to spell than "Robin Taylor."
Even Wally Hickel, one of the most popular politicians in Alaska's history, couldn't win a write-in campaign. With Scott gaining momentum and Joe going down, I believe that some Democrats who had been planning to write in Lisa to stop Joe will now be motivated to vote their consciences.
This race is anybody's guess, and polling is meaningless.