Elaine Marshall vs Richard Burr in North Carolina ?

[kentuck]

About a month ago, most polls were showing Burr about 7-9 points up in this race but it has tightened since then. This could be a race playing in the shadows. The Democrats could pick up this seat.

I caught part of the debate this morning on C-SPAN and she looked very strong. North Carolina likes women candidates. They even voted for Elizabeth Dole. Granted, she was a Republican but Burr has that "incumbent" label, much like Bennett in Utah and Lisa Murkowski in Alaska. Republicans have a strong enmity against these types of Republicans that were there when the debt was doubled and did nothing about it.

This is a race that the Democrats could slip in and win. Keep an eye on this one.

[mmonk]

1. The problem is money.

Republicans and their PAC's are putting heavy money into the Burr Campaign. Burr's campaign has had ads running a full month and hers has just started. Plus she won the Democratic primary against the party "pick" and we no longer have Dean's 50 state strategy in play. She is traveling around the state to meet people face to face as the only way to counter lack of resources.

[laureloak]

2. Burr smirked like Bush in the debate. Marshall looked great!

Burr's answers were elusive and stock responses while Marshall didn't hesitate to attack. Her TV ad is good but I wish she had mentioned that she didn't believe in speaking to people via hired actors like Burr does.

[limolib]

3. Polls

The most recent polls on this race:
Rasmussen Burr 54-38
SurveyUSA Burr 58-34
PPP Burr 49-36
Civitas Burr 49-29

Burr's lead was 7-9 points back in the summer, but since Burr went on the air he's expanded his lead considerably.

[kentuck]

4. Some real dumb asses down there, huh?

:-)

[limolib]

5. Yep

This is, after all, the state of Jesse Helms, Elizabeth Dole, and John Edwards.

[kentuck]

6. Enough said.

Believe me.

[KoKo]

7. Elaine is a fantastic candidate. Dem Voters are very energized by her and

Female Dems (older) will be out there on election day...while the TeaBaggers sit it out and whine. The strategy is that she is the candidate of change where Burr will be seen as "throw the bum out."

Have to see how it works out...but I'm working for both Elaine and Brad Miller (House) because they are both the kind of Democrat that progressives can count on.

[WI_DEM]

8. Unfortunately the polls don't show it has "tightened up" the time the Dems should have spent money..

was after the primary when she did spike up in the polls, but she just ran her first ad a few days ago and has been out-spent by Burr and as you can see the polls show what was once a very tight race in July going republican because the national dem party decided not to spend any money in NC:

Pollster Dates N/Pop Burr Marshall Beitler Other Undecided Margin
High Point University 9/25-30/10 400 A 45 31 4 3 18 +14R
PPP (D) 9/23-26/10 724 LV 49 36 4 - 11 +13R
Civitas Institute/National Research (R) 9/17/10 600 LV 49 29 3 - 17 +20R
SurveyUSA 9/10-13/10 641 LV 58 34 6 - 2 +24R
Rasmussen 9/8/10 500 LV 54 38 - 1 7 +16R
PPP (D) 8/27-29/10 724 LV 43 38 6 - 13 +5R
Rasmussen 8/3/10 500 LV 49 40 - 3 8 +9R
PPP (D) 7/27-31/10 624 LV 39 37 7 - 17 +2R
Civitas Institute/Tel Opinon (R) 7/19-21/10 600 LV 44 37 3 - 15 +7R
Lake (D-Marshall) 7/15-19/10 600 LV 35 37 5 - 23 +2D

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/10/30/10-nc-sen-ge-bvma_n_723462.html

[GentryDixon]

9. She comes from Harnett County,

which is where I have a home. I cannot vote for her, as my primary residence is in another state, but I have contributed more than once.

There is a real problem with the "red-neck" mentality in this district. I hope I don't hurt any feelings with that comment. I am talking about my relatives as well as most of the populace. It is hard to get past the Christian Right blather.