Seriously - are we going to retain control of Congress?

[Writer]

From everything I've seen posted so far - from polls to calls to action to the President's speeches - the results seem to have improved over last month, but are still precarious.

Using your gut (and you know that the gut knows best ;)) what do you think will happen?

[Safetykitten]

1. No, and to add...

The republicans will make the administration lurch farther to the right. The new interest for the administartion will then become foreign policy. Two years of constant attacks and full assaults from the Fox minions will make a Democratic president in 2012 a pipe dream. The economy will still be in a stagnant pool, swimming with pals unemployment, a commercial real estate implosion that will make the residential look small, and a continuing bank clusterfuck that even with the republicans help will not solve the ponzi scheme of forclosure fuckups.

Healthcare will be a whole cottage industry of basically "what the fuck is going on and how do I get to see a doctor", insane increases, corporation exemption lists a mile long, and finger wagging from governemnt.

This is our future. Get used to it. All because our President wanted to be loved by people that will never love him, or like him.

The horse is out of the barn now. Things are going to be very interesting in the next two years, and a horror show after that.

[Tony_FLADEM]

3. If Democrats show up and vote like they are capable

Republican gains will be limited to 15-20 in the House and 6-7 in the Senate.

If Democrats stay home, Republicans will gain 45-50 in the House and 8-9 in the Senate.

[CakeGrrl]

14. No, it will be all because people didn't get off their asses and VOTE

No other excuse.

If people are staying home because they have the simpleminded notion that the President is a disappointment because he wanted to be liked by Republicans, than they deserve whatever nasty crap a Republican-controlled government will inflict.

[wisteria]

15. I don't agree with your assessment at all. n/t

[Cosmocat]

29. Perversely wrrong ...

Out of the gates your sense of BO wanting to be "loved" by Rs ... Just friggen perversely wrong ...

But, while not gangbusters, the economy is going to improve ... Business has held out on growth going into this election, and can't hold out any longer regardless of the outcome ... Even an uptick from the high 9s to the low 8s allows the ability to run on cutting unemployment, and BO will continue to take the high ground and while the margins might be closer, the public at large will respect the job he has done and give him a second term, and with his reelection, some gains will come in the house and senate ...

[impik]

40. This is how black people are

They just want to be loved. Right?

If we lose it will be mostly due to so-called "progressives" who took the most progressive legislation period in decades and turned it into a narrative of failure.

[Dawgs]

43. Bullshit.

Your post is stupid.

[Ozymanithrax]

2. Yes, but barely.

I predict 24-28 seats lost.

[grantcart]

13. agreed.

[Cosmocat]

28. Battle of the bulge ...

up until about a month ago, I thought it would be 20 over and under, I have upticked to 30 over and under ...

This is the battle of the bulge, weather it and push back in 2012 ...

[Blue_In_AK]

4. I have no idea, but Democrats are looking good in Alaska.

All the races will be tight.

[Ter]

9. Isn't Joe Miller ahead though?

And Lisa-something in second, with the Democrat behind both?

[Blue_In_AK]

17. Joe had a very, very awful bad day today.

Judging from many of the comments, he's toast.

http://www.adn.com/2010/10/11/1496632/miller-vows-silence-about-personal.html

[Parker CA]

5. We will retain both the house and senate. Nt.

[jillan]

6. If we all help GOTV than the dems should retain both houses.

If we wait for someone else to help GOTV, then who knows.

[Politics_Guy25]

7. Happy talk is useless

Writer,

To answer your post-and this doesn't mean to give up and run to hide under your bed and not GOTV, it should give you encouragement to do what GOTV you can to lessen things,

The truth is that the democrats are headed for a wipeout on November 2nd that has never before been seen in American midterm history. The house of representatives is already lost. We're likely to lose around 68 seats there. In Gallup's poll released just today, we are down by 18 points among likely voters. 2010 is likely to be like Reagan 1984 for the GOP PV wise.

The senate is a pure 50/50 tossup at this point. Angle is ahead by just 0.3 points on average in Nevada. So there is hope for Reid there. If Harry can be a good closer, we can come from behind and win Nevada. If we win Nevada, we retain the senate. We could end up with anywhere between 49-54 seats in the senate if we win KY, IL, NV, WA and WV which we very well could.

A great night for us would be losing the house but keeping good control of the senate.

The senate and the governorships are moving our way or are at least not totally lost. The house is most likely gone, however, on a gargantuan scale. It should be noted that the house has never flipped in history if the senate didn't flip as well. Something more to worry about but this time could seriously be different.

[Tony_FLADEM]

10. Do you really believe the Democrats will lose 68 House Seats?

The Republicans were in power only 4 years ago. The nation is more diverse than in 1994 and Republicans are more unpopular than Democrats.

Walt Minnick (D) Idaho and Parker Griffith (D) Alabama are both leading.

If they can't even win these 2 seats, I don't see them winning 68 seats.

In addition, the Democrats are certain to win 4 Republicans seats in Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana and Delaware. Also, 2 Republican seats in California and Washington State are in play.


You might be right however.

[Politics_Guy25]

19. I need to see the generic national polls tighten up

17 points is just unbelivably horrifying and supports a 68 seat seat loss. Actually it supports a seat loss far higher than that. If we get down to a 1-2-3 point on average GOP lead congressionally, then we can look at a seat loss in the 25-40 range.

We need some tightening though.

[Politics_Guy25]

20. Also it should be noted that a GOP congress guarantees a two-term president Obama

See 1996. I think the dems lose the house in 2010/take it back in 2012 in a huge Obama wave.

2010 will be hell on earth for us but 2012 will be unbelievably euphoric and heavenly.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Having A GOP Congress As A Foil Helped Clinton

But having 5% unemployment and 4% GDP growth helped more.

If economic and job growth remains anemic we will face the same electoral problems, at every level, we are facing now.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. Larry Sabato Says We Will Lose 47 House Seats, Seven To Eight Senate Seats, And Eight Governorships

In light of everything that would be a good night.

I'm more worried about 012. If the economy doesn't improve we will lose the White House as well.

[FBaggins]

25. There's no way that's a "good night"

It would be one of the largest swings in a century... clearly comparable to 1994.

I'm all for playing the expectations game, but that's going to ring hollow at 47 seats.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. It's A Hell Of A Lot Better Than Losing Sixty Eight Or Repeating The Election of 94

1894 that is.

[FBaggins]

30. Yeah... but there's also a big difference

between "worst case scenario" and a "victory"

A mugger might simply take your wallet... or he might punch you in the face... or he might shoot you in the leg and cripple you... or he might shoot you in the head and kill you. You won't feel good about being crippled if someone ahead of time predicted that you were going to be killed. You might say that it wasn't as bad as it might have been, but it sure wasn't a good day.

[bigdarryl]

11. your CRAZY!!!! we are not going to loose that many seats unless we stay home

[jillan]

12. And other polls show that the republicans are even more unpopular that the dems with voters!

The Associated Press-GfK Poll this month shows that the public is fed up with both parties. Only 38 percent approve of how congressional Democrats are handling their jobs, and just 31 percent like how Republicans are doing theirs. Fifty-nine percent are unhappy with how Democrats are nursing the economy, 64 percent are upset by the GOP’s work on the country’s top issue.

More than half have negative views of each party. Most say Obama isn’t cooperating enough on the economy, but even more accuse Republicans of the same thing. And former President George W. Bush and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin — the only two Republicans the AP-GfK Poll tested — are significantly less popular than Obama.

http://www.theoaklandpress.com/articles/2010/09/25/news/politics/doc4c9deca1e0595531741537.txt

Believe what you want - I'm feeling very hopeful.

[Politics_Guy25]

21. RCP shows the seat loss as between 31 min-68 max right now

That's where I get my 68 number from.

Electoral-vote.com, on the other hand, shows us leading 202-199; so that's encouraging and somewhat confusing.

RCP is a right-wing hatchet organization for sure but would they blow their credibility up by showing such a ridiculous number?

Again, ABC/CBS/CNN/Ras/Gallup all show between a 6-18 point race. That range is untenable.

[wisteria]

16. Wow, doom and gloom that I don't buy base on one Gallop poll. n/t

[Ter]

8. The House? Not a chance we retain

The Senate? Yes we'll retain, but we'll lose 5-8 seats.

[pa28]

18. I think we retain. Barely.

When you are talking about Congress changing sides that is a rare event and polls do not take into account some of the natural advantages of incumbency. A shift in control means a sea change and usually that will involve a clear message which I just don't see from the other side right now.

If we fight and develop a clear message; namely on tax cut extensions and foreign contributions they'll be lucky to take it back.

[opihimoimoi]

22. KnR :o) With the help of REASON < TRUTH

Electorate heavily influenced with divisive level issues

Part of GOP mode of attack....DIVIDE DISTRACT DILUTE

Avoid / Reject any Unification....

[pstokely]

23. At this point, I'd say keep the Senate, House is a a toss up

GOTV, Ignore the polls

[Freddie Stubbs]

31. I think that we will lose the House but retain the Senate by a narrow margin

[bigwillq]

32. DEMS probably keep the Senate.

I think DEMS will lose the House.

Not good at this prediction game, so take that for what it's worth! :)

[budkin]

33. We'll hold the Senate but it's pretty obvious we are going to lose the House

The question is by how much...

[S_E_Fudd]

34. The House is gone....Republicans already control the Senate

The House is lost, by a large margin....Repubs pick up 50+ seats

IMO Republicans control the Senate already...

However, I think there is a slightly better than even chance that Dems retain nominal control...meaning they retain the leadership positions, but the Republican strangle hold on the institution will only get tighter...

[rbilancia]

35. It ALL depends on TURNOUT and ATTACKING the PUKES. If we attack and turn out, we'll be ok.

[hollowdweller]

36. I knew that when the voters elected a black guy

That republicans had REALLY screwed up. In any normal time a black guy would have never been elected. Especially a democratic black guy.

Also told my wife on election night that with that historic opening Obama was handed a historic challenge. Turning the economy around before the next election. I told her I wasn't sure ANYBODY could turn it around that quick. Especially in time for mid terms.

On the other hand I thought that given the way he ran his campaign and sort of was frank with people that maybe he would be able to buy enough time to do the job. I'm still glad I voted for him over Clinton but politically he's been a disaster for the party.

He's sided with the Blue Dogs and GOP enough to lend supply side MORE credibility when he should have been burying it in the grave of the financial collapse. Health Care could have been a huge bonus but so much of it was pushed into the future even people I know who will benefit from it don't realize it. The Wall Street reform made him look like the Dems were IN with the bankers not opposed to them.

Now the night before the exam Obama is cramming and trying to turn things around.

I see a Democratic narrative emerging, the collapse of the middle class and wealth inequality, the use of credit by those with money to exploit the working class. The shrinking safety net of the working class.

But that is way too late for this election. But it was there although not as loud when Obama came into office but he did nothing till recently to promote it.

If we lose big my only concern is the dems may keep part of congress and then with their poor messaging skills be blamed even further as the GOP congress sinks us further into oblivion.

The GOP may do the impossible. Sink the economy using supply side principles and then make a huge comeback based on the premise of the deficit, which they totally forgot when they were in office, and supply side economics which actually put us in the hole.

But the dems and Obama by still being influenced by supply side gave the GOP cover to say that the reason the economy tanked was we WEREN'T CONSERVATIVE ENOUGH, despite controlling the White House, Courts, and Congress before the dems took power. The amazing thing is how many have bought it. Shows how far our educational system has deteriorated.

[GSLevel9]

37. the Senate is safe...

thanks COD.

But the House is gone.

Prepare for 2 years of chaos and mud slinging.

[PopSixSquish]

38. The Democrats Will Keep Both by Very Narrow Margins

And it will be very interesting to see which of the whackjob teabaggers actually get to the Senate.

[pstokely]

39. House could go either way

Keep the Senate by a few seats

[onehandle]

41. We will lose the House but not the Senate, and we will lose a lot of Governor's seats...

...and state Congresses, which means that Republicans will be doing the redistricting after the current census.

Not good.

[Grown2Hate]

42. Yes, and JUST barely. I think we hold on to the house by about 2-3 seats, which,

unfortunately, gives the Blue Dogs that much MORE power, but, fortunately, keeps the gavel out of the hands of the Orange Freak. In the Senate, we'll hold on but, again, JUST BARELY, making potential Nelson/Lieberman defections a possibility. If the Refucks DO get a hold of the Senate majority again, just watch how quickly it goes from needing 60 votes to get anything done back down to 51. :mad:

[harun]

45. That or all of a sudden Corporate Media starts carping about the "nuclear option" in the Senate.

[harun]

44. Retain. 51-49 Senate, 218-217 House.

[truebrit71]

46. Yes, In both Chambers. We will have lost alot of Blue Dog's along the way..

...which will be no bad thing, but I will be really pissed if the cheeseheads in Methconsin do not re-elect Russ Feingold.

I predict a great blood-letting after the gop fails to seize power and drag this country back to the 18th century and the Teabaggers will be ostracized as the real reason the gop lost.

[mochajava666]

47. My gut says we lose both the House and Senate

This climate reminds me a lot of 1994, and that wave was a tsunami. Also, Nate Silver is pretty smart when it comes to election predictions.