"The Voter-Enthusiasm Gap Is a One-Sided Affair"

[Clio the Leo]

The Voter-Enthusiasm Gap Is a One-Sided Affair
By GERALD F. SEIB
OCTOBER 8, 2010

Conventional wisdom says Republican voters are quite fired up about next month's midterm elections, and Democrats are quite unenthused, which helps explains why Republicans are ahead in so many polls.

Like most conventional wisdom, that's about half right.

A look deeper inside measures of voter interest suggests Democratic voters aren't particularly disengaged from this election, at least not by historical standards. They are expressing roughly normal levels of interest for this stage of a midterm campaign season.

Democratic voters, in short, are behaving in an ordinary way.

The difference is that Republicans—both hard-core Republicans and those who merely lean that way—are extremely, highly, exceptionally (you pick the modifier) engaged in the campaign. They are expressing much higher levels of interest than normal.

Republican voters, in short, are behaving in an extraordinary way. The enthusiasm gap is almost entirely a result of this surplus of energy on the Republican side.

This picture tells you a lot about the challenge Democrats face in the final month of the campaign. If history is any guide, Democrats will close the enthusiasm gap some, for their voters tend to check into the game later. And perhaps Republican enthusiasm already is so high that it can't rise much further in the campaign's final weeks.

But the task for Democrats, this analysis shows, isn't simply to gin up a normal level of enthusiasm by rousing their usual contingent of voters. They need to generate an unusual level of interest among their troops—and not just among the party's base, but among some soft, independent-minded voters in the middle who might lean Democratic.

There is some evidence Democrats and President Barack Obama are starting the process, but closing the gap will be tough.

<snip>

The numbers constitute a dark cloud for Democrats. The silver lining lies in the fact that Democratic voters tend to check into a campaign later than do their Republican counterparts—indeed, sometimes showing up only as the clock ticks down.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704011904575537910972896050.html?mod=ITP_pageone_2

[WhiteTara]

1. I agree. We are watching closely

but no need to run around like crazy when crazy is all running around. We'll be there, taking a neighbor or two. I know of no real democrats who are sitting this one out. Even ole Blanche will have a bit of a turnout.

[treestar]

2. But of course. Tea partiers are insane. Of course they are "enthusiastic"

Doesn't mean they win.

In fact when they lose, they will still be "enthusiastic" and enthusiastically march, post on the internet, and call in to radio shows.

[RaleighNCDUer]

4. I foresee one problem - with their enthusiasm level, they will NOT believe it

when they don't sweep the nation. A few modest gains, typical for a mid-term, and they will be screaming vote fraud, because they all KNOW they're gonna kick our butts.

It's going to be an interesting November.

[Clio the Leo]

6. And David Plouffe is spinning as much...

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/po_20101007_3640.php

[emulatorloo]

8. or seek 2nd amendment remedies n/t

[Pirate Smile]

3. This is the key - Democrats are actually more enthused then most midterms but the Republicans are

completely whacked because of the lies fed them from Fox News, RW talk radio, the RW echo-chamber online.

This is the point - it isn't that Democrats are depressed, it is that Republicans are rabid.



Of course, Democrats are not as enthused as 2006 when we took back the House but that isn't really surprising.

I wish the meme of "depressed" Democrats would die because it is not true.

[emulatorloo]

9. Thanks for the chart.

[Historic NY]

5. In other words the Repukes want a "do over".

[LiberalFighter]

7. Checking in later is not a bad thing now.

It would had been years ago when there were fewer voters registered to vote. As long as our voters are registered it reduces the other side from walking all over us.

As the Presidential election was just 2 years ago most if not all of the new registrations are still valid with the exception of those that moved, changed their name and didn't re-register. Here in Indiana it is now possible to register online as long as one has a state drivers license or photo id. Wisconsin has same day voter registration and there are one or two other states with similar voter registration. Those that registered back in 2008 for the most part will all be able to vote this election. In previous presidential elections the turnout may have been less and also meant fewer registered voters as a percent.