FL Senate: Rubio (R): 39% Crist:(I) 33% Meek (D)18%

[book_worm]

(I think it would be interesting if pollsters asked who they would vote for if it was only Rubio vs. Crist or Rubio vs. Meek to see how that scenerio would play out. As it is now, Rubio probably will win because the anti-Rubio vote is split).


According to a TCPalm.com/Zogby poll released Tuesday, 39.2 percent of the state’s voters favor Rubio, while 33 percent went with Crist and 17.6 percent are intending to vote for the Democratic congressman from Miami.

The poll showed a narrower gap than a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday that put Rubio 13 percentage points ahead of Crist. Rubio also had an 11-point lead over Crist in polls released Wednesday by CNN/Time and Rasmussen.

Zogby International Chairman John Zogby said Crist is actually doing better than in previous polls conducted by his polling company. Crist had been down at 28 percent, while Meek has fallen from 25 percent.

Rubio has held steady.

The TCPalm.com/Zogby poll, which interviewed 802 registered voters throughout the state, had a 3.5 percent margin of error.

“I think, both Meek and Rubio have successfully taught the public that Crist can’t really be trusted,” Sweet said. Also, Rubio, who catered to tea party members when he campaigned in the primary against Crist, “has started to soften slightly on a couple of issues — immigration and Social Security notably — probably in an attempt to pull in some moderates.”

While conservatives easily favored the tea party-backed Rubio, liberal voters were split among Crist and Meek, with Meek edging the governor 43 percent to 40.1 percent.

Those who considered themselves moderate easily went with Crist.

http://www.tcpalm.com/news/2010/oct/05/exclusive-zogby-florida-senate-poll-results/

[bigdarryl]

1. Meek is loosing steam

[BeyondGeography]

2. Someone please cut a deal with Meek and let's win this seat

[FBaggins]

7. We can't "win this seat"

Cutting a deal with Meek might help defeat Rubio... but that leaves us with Crist.

A year ago that would have been considered a loss... I don't see why we would pretend it's a win now.

[BeyondGeography]

11. You prefer Rubio to Crist?

That's a loss. Crist would play independent and caucus with the majority, which is us. That's called a win.

[FBaggins]

12. No... I'm saying that neither one is part of "we" n/t

[DCBob]

21. I would bet a boatload of grapefruits that if Crist wins he caucuses with "we" the Democrats..

and Senator Rubio is about the worst thing you could imagine happening to "we" the Democrats.

[The Backlash Cometh]

26. I prefer rubio to Crist.

It will be easier to corral "the enemy" if Rubio is the Senator. Crist will have Democrats who will block a clean-up of Crist's corruption problem.

[Ter]

16. Too late to withdraw

He is on the ballot in November no matter what.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. He Could Withdraw From The Race And Urge Voters To Vote Their Conscience

In which case Crist probably wins.

[Ter]

18. He's still probably get 5% of the vote

In order for Crist to win in FL, it would have to look like this:

Meek 5%
Rubio 47%
Crist 48%

Crist in some ways is to the left of Meek. He came out in favor of gay adoption, gay marriage, and fully supports the Health Care Plan. Can a candidate with those views win 48% in FL? I doubt it, Crist moved too left too fast. He was winning many Republican votes when he first ran an as independent. He should have waited until November, then moved left.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. I Think He Supports Civil Unions

i think 80% of Meek's support would go to him and put him over the top.

[Ter]

22. Mathematically, is 80% enough?

Like I said, 5% will still vote for Meek, because his name is on the ballet no matter what, so that's just 13% to play with (of Meek's current 18%). Right now it's Rubio 39%, Crist 33%, and Meek 18%. If 80% of that 13% go to Crist, that's 10% more to Crist, bringing him up to 43%, and 3% more to Rubio, bringing him up to 42%. So, it would look like this:

Crist 43%
Rubio 42%
Meek 5%
Undecideds 10%

That may be enough, but who do the undecideds break for?

[DCBob]

24. Your numbers look reasonable. Undecideds are usually indie types.. so that would benefit Crist.

I think even if Meek doesn't withdraw, most of his support collapses on election day. This race is getting huge press and most FL voters will know exactly what the situation is and what they need to do.

[angee_is_mad]

27. and lose the Governorship

because I bet you that Meek's supporters and base has been watching and listening what has been going on with the "progressive" pundits and blogosphere about this race. Even if Meek was to come out and endorse crist, his base would know that he was forced out and will sit this one out.

Question is can crist WIN w/o Meek's base? You know what happened to Halter in Arkansas.

[jefferson_dem]

3. Good news.

:thumbsup:

[monmouth]

4. I was in the Post Office in West PB yesterday to mail my Absentee

ballot in. $1.22..LOL. Anyway, long line, many with their AB in hand to get the stamp. Started to chit-chat with gal next to me and I said how glad I was to see people voting early. Not knowing which way I voted she asked how I felt about Rubio. I said he scared me to death and a vote for him would be vote for Jeb and their minions. She smiled and nodded her head then laughingly she said "we better not go further in this discussion." I laughed also and knew what she meant. Crist or Meek was the underlying conversation that was not discussed. She gave me a thumbs up as she left the Post Office....

[LiberalFighter]

5. I'm wondering if the Rubio incidents are starting to take a hit on Rubio?

[FBaggins]

8. Rubio's support is virtually unchanged.

The main shift is between Crist and Meek.

[wilt the stilt]

6. I don't know what the FL Dems were thinking

but Meeks has about as much chance of winning a state wide election as getting a confession out of Palin that the kid is really her daughters.
African Americans have absolutely no chance of winning a state wide election in the south and Florida still has half the state in the south.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Last I Checked Obama Carried Florida, Virginia, And North Carolina

And Virginia, the capital of the Confederacy has had more African Americans in the governor's mansion than California.

Meek is a bad candidate running in a bad year for Democrats. Similar candidates from both parties in Florida have suffered similar fates. See Cruella Harris and Hugh Rodham.

[SoFlaJet]

9. I'm not wasting my vote on Meek

and will vote for Crist to keep that teabagging idiot Rubio out-I hope all dems do the same

[Inuca]

23. Thank you

I would do the same if I were in FL.

[sadbear]

10. I'd rather have Crist than Rubio

There is some common sense in Crist, and maybe, just maybe if he's unshackled from the republican tea party, he can finally come out of the closet. Rubio is a just another sociopathic teabagger. This should be a no-brainer at this point in the election season. Meek supporters need to try to defeat Rubio, not try to elect Meek.

[flamingdem]

13. Rubio is a rabid teabagger and possibly being groomed for a presidential run

so we need to DEFEAT HIM. He's latino and can get moderate latinos on board even with his wingnut ways.

[COLGATE4]

14. Yes. Our vote now has to be to defeat Rubio, not to elect Crist..

We can't afford to have 6 years of this idiot as our Senator.

[DCBob]

20. Crist is definitely within striking distance and Meek is still meek..

I suspect more and more Dems are going to abandon Mr Meek and go to Crist to avoid Senator Teabagger.

[Colobo]

25. I hope they all do. I'm a registered voter in KY now... so I won't have the honor

of voting against Rubio.