"A forthcoming Siena poll in New York finds ... Gillibrand (D) leading leading by 24 pts."

[Clio the Leo]

This is in contrast to the poll from yesterday that showed her ahead only by six. Different results for the Gov. race as well. It's like the WV polls that showed Manchin either down or AHEAD by 14pts. Just goes to show that polls only have merit when looked at cumulatively and over time.

Very Different Poll Results in New York

A forthcoming Siena poll in New York finds Andrew Cuomo (D) leading the race for governor by 33 points and Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D) leading her U.S. Senate race by 24 points -- very different from the latest Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA polls that show much closes races.

Two things to keep in mind: The Siena poll tests registered voters, not likely voters. And in the race for governor, the poll includes Rick Lazio as the Conservative Party candidate, even though he's not yet announced if he'll stay on the ballot.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/09/23/very_different_poll_results_in_new_york.html

[WI_DEM]

That's good because Survey USA has her up by only 1-point today.

[Unvanguard]

1. The likely voter screen seems to be making a lot of difference.

But probably not enough to explain the entirety of the difference.

[jberryhill]

4. It's all in the turnout model applied to the data

Poll results are only as good as the turnout model, which is where the real hand-waving is.

[Clio the Leo]

2. And if Quinnipiac is off in NY what does this say for OH?

... which shows the R Sen ahead by 20 pts and the R candidate for Gov. ahead by 17.

[Cha]

3. That seems like how it should be.

lazio was on my local news yesterday downplaying the endorsement of Cuomo by Mayor Bloomberg.

Thanks for this, Clio.

[ShadowLiberal]

5. This cloe to election day all pollsters ought to apply likely voter screens

Sure it'll be nice if you report two sets of numbers, with and without a likely voter screen, to show how big a difference it makes, but to have just a poll on registered voters and no voter screen now isn't being realistic.