Mike Lee up by 27% over Sam Granato in Utah Senate race

[Ter]

SALT LAKE CITY — The political tide that seems to be favoring Republicans across the nation appears to be sweeping Utah's U.S. Senate race toward a landslide.

The latest Dan Jones & Associates poll for KSL and the Deseret News shows Republican Mike Lee in a commanding position, even if incumbent Sen. Bob Bennett had been on the ballot as an independent.

Six weeks before Election Day, it seems clear Democrat Sam Granato has failed to catch fire as a candidate. The poll indicates he's losing out to Lee in every county in the state.

When conservative Lee ousted Sen. Bob Bennett at the Republican convention, some commentators said he was too much of an extremist. They claimed the convention delegates did not represent Republicans statewide.

But the poll shows a solid majority ready to vote for Lee. He's beating Granato 52 percent to 25 percent. Scott Bradley of the Constitution Party gets 4 percent.

Kirk Jowers, director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics, said Lee is ahead even in Salt Lake County.

"The poll results show that Mike Lee is on the right of probably mainstream Utah, but he's right there. He's with them. And they don't feel he's extreme," Jowers said.

Randy Shumway, of Dan Jones & Associates, said Lee is winning support even from a few registered Democrats.

"Mike Lee is getting votes from all of the conservatives, many of the moderates and even some of the self-described liberals," he said.

Shumway said Lee is getting a lot of help from an anti-federal tide among many voters.

"They perceive the federal government as having overreached, as being excessively inefficient," he said. "Therefore, these individuals are saying 'We want to vote for someone who's going to go to Washington, D.C., and give push-back.' "

Moderate voters nationally swung toward Democrats in 2008 and toward Republicans this year. Jowers said it reflects anger toward whichever party is in charge. "The middle has not found a home," he said.

The poll asked voters whom they'd vote for if Bennett were running as an independent. He got 32 percent to Lee's 37 percent, which trounces Granato almost 2 to 1.

"I believe very strongly if I had emerged from the convention, I would have won the Republican primary," says Bennett. "Then, been in a very strong position to win the general election."

The only legal way Bennett could have stayed in the race was to mount a difficult write-in campaign.

"The consequences of my running as an independent, in terms of dividing the party, dividing the state, adding to the bitterness of the current political dialogue, were such that I decided I don't need to hold office that badly," Bennett said.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. It's based on interviews with 600 voters.

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700066953/Lee-sporting-significant-lead-over-Granato-in-Senate-race.html

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When Lee won the Republican nomination by defeating Bennett, and then winning a run-off, many said he's so far to the right that this may be close. I guess in Utah, being ultra-right doesn't matter. :(

[napi21]

1. I'd be surprised if any Dem had a chanc of winning in Utah!

I know it's only perception on my part, but Utah always seems to be very RW. I think it's partly their high Mormon population but even ore than that, those who aren't Mormon are evangelicals. Not good Dem territory. I would also think IF there ever was a Dem electedk, we'd be talking about not on a blue dog but NAVY BLUE meaning Pub in disguise.

[4lbs]

2. I consider Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming as a "whites only" bloc.

As such, the huge majority of their politicians and voters are Republicans.

As of 2009 (via the U.S. Census' QuickFacts), here's how they break down in terms of political and racial makeup:

Utah - 92.7% white, 63.7% Republican, 34.4% Democratic, 1.9% Other, implying a R+27 state. That means that Republicans have a built-in 27 point advantage, which seems to match the disparity between Lee and Granato.

Idaho - 94.4% white. Idaho doesn't report Democratic voters versus Republicans, but based on the 2008 results, it appears twice as many voters are registered as Republicans than Democratic, around 60% Republican, 30% Democratic, and 10% Other. That implies a R+20 state at the minimum. Republican candidates have a built-in 20 point advantage over any other party candidate.

Wyoming - 93.5% white, 59.6% Republican, 25.7% Democratic, 14.1% Independent, 0.6% Other, implying a R+20 state. Republican candidates have a built-in 20 point advantage over any other party.

[Freddie Stubbs]

7. The Governor of Wyoming is a Democratic :

http://governor.wy.gov/

[otohara]

3. I Thought Lee Might Be Asian

silly me...

[Ter]

6. Although a popular Asian name...

It's also quite common in non-Asians. Tommy Lee (Motley Crue), Cliff Lee (baseball player), etc.

[WI_DEM]

4. did anybody ever think Utah senate would be going democratic?

[activa8tr]

5. How about we give Utah, Arizona, Texas, back to the Spaniards from down

South of the border?

I'd throw in Mississippi and Alabama for a bonus.

Don't flame me, please, I know the Mexicans wouldn't want any of them either.

[Umbral]

8. The only way this makes any difference is that Lee may actually try to do something.

Bennett would only push a piece of legislation before an election, get some free press and use it to justify his position. The rest of the time they only woke him up to cast his usual party line vote.