Maybe this is going to turn out like 2008...

[Drunken Irishman]

If you'll remember, throughout the summer and into September, McCain was gaining on Obama and appeared to have the momentum heading into the conventions. It was at that point where many felt Sen. Obama would be able to distance himself from the McCain campaign and yet, when it was all said and done, McCain entered September statistically ahead of Pres. Obama in an average of polls.

Sure, it was a very small lead - but it was a lead regardless and the media ran with it. McCain/Palin were in position to win this thing even though their party was coming off the most unpopular presidency in modern American history.

Sure, many people will point to the economic collapse in mid-September as the point where Obama surged ahead. However, the gap between the two campaigns actually tightened before the economic issues ultimately dominated the discussion.

McCain/Palin built a lead of seven or so points in a Gallup poll shortly after the Republican Convention and then a set of mishaps ultimately tightened the race.

It started when Palin did her interview with Charlie Gibson. That was the week of Sept. 11 and it was, to put it lightly, a poor moment for the campaign.

But things really didn't get out of hand until her interview with Katie Couric. That was on the 25th, roughly around the time the economy was slamming into the ground.

That, more than anything, was a disaster for McCain's staff and its airtime dominated the week of the 25th.

At that point, McCain's ratings began to slip even worse than what was seen in the wake of the Gibson interview.

In the end, the Republicans never recovered and several missteps dealing with the economy and the debates ultimately sealed Obama's victory.

However, had the election been held on Sept. 1st, the outcome would've been dramatically different than what we eventually saw. It's possible Obama wins - but it would've been by a far narrower margin than his eventual outcome.

What I'm saying is that the Republicans peaked way too early in 2008. Their best point in the election was summer and early September. The problem with that is we still had two to three months left until people actually went out and voted.

Once their momentum stalled, Obama gained traction not just because the economy was going to hell in a handbasket, but because people looked at Sarah Palin and freaked out.

She was toxic. She drove moderate voters in Florida who thought Obama might be sketchy on Israel right into his camp.

Everyone realized she was a heart attack away from the presidency and that scared most sane voters. No one wants a crazy person at the wheel and to them, Palin was that crazy person.

Now how does this tie into 2010?

Well think about it. The Republicans really began pulling away from the Democrats this summer. Leading up to it, Democrats were at least competitive in a lot of states. But by June, things really weren't looking good.

Primaries were held and Republicans went to the hard-right. They nominated loons who embodied the worst of what made Palin completely batshit insane.

Their status never really changed until...mid-September.

Then things became real. Their momentum has stalled. Sure, they're in a better spot today than McCain was in 2008 by the fact the Democrats are now the ruling party across the board. However, they're getting a look at the crazy again and it's turning them off.

The Republicans have already probably lost the Senate because of one crazy Palin clone. A few key house races very well could swing the Democrats' way because, ultimately, the crazies turn off most fairly sane voters.

Look at the Reid seat in Nevada. If it were anyone else going up against Reid, he would be toast. The race wouldn't even be close. No one likes him in Nevada - but he's a tolerable figure compared to the bat-shit loon running against him.

Republican momentum has once again stalled because some ill-advised picks of some crazy ass people.

Will it be enough to keep the House? I don't know. But I think the recent events will turn momentum in favor of the Democrats.

Whether it'll be enough remains to be seen. But at least the prospects aren't nearly as bleak as they were a few weeks ago.

[napi21]

1. You're right, & at the very least, the outcome of the election

totally depends on who gets off their lazy asses and vvotes. Two months ago, that wasn't the case ARAIK the polls are tid between the parties now, and it sure looks like Angle & O'Donell will los. It's still iffy on Paul, Buck & the nutball in AK. There's wtill about 1 1/2 months to go and I think Obama gettig out on the campaign trail will help a lot. I still thik we'll proably lose some house seas & maybe a few in the Senate, but I'm getting closer to believing that both houses will stay Dem. Let's see what happens in the next 45? days.

[mikekohr]

19. Been sayin' this for months, GOTV will be the deciding factor

as it always is.

[golfguru]

20. You can't get off your lazy ass if there is nothing to

get up for. With real unemployment near 20% and a quarter of all mortgages
under water and foreclosures breaking records, it is very difficult to get
the energy to vote. Unfortunately my guess is a lot of these people are
good democrats and they are just demoralized. They do not believe any one
is seriously helping them in their dire situation. Did you see how many
people needing health care flocked to the nearest providers and found out
the health care reform bill did not help them?

[creeksneakers2]

56. There's been lots of help

They've extended unemployment benefits how many times and for how long? It used to have a maximum in weeks. Some people are on it now for years. What about all the health care subsidies coming up? What about the federal government picking up COBRA payments for laid off workers? What about mortgage assistance? What about increasing costs of programs like food stamps? What about all the stimulus dollars?

The Democrats spent so much money on helping people that they will probably lose their majority because of it. The sacrificed themselves to help.

[Name removed]

35. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Sky Masterson]

2. I'll have what he's drinken!

:applause: This was a nice read.Thank you.

[DFLforever]

3. Something very bad happened to the Republicans

this week...it's in the air and so bad no one really wants to talk about it. With O'Donnell in DE and Lisa M. as a 'write in' the party's been struck a hard blow by Palin. I hope it's the beginning of the great unraveling for them.

[MadMaddie]

51. I think you may be right

but I suspect there is more to come. I don't think they have finished with their bad calculations......I think they will get more desperate as we get closer to November.

[Mefistofeles]

4. For that to happen, a lot of Republicans would have to crumble at the same time

It is easy for one candidate to disintegrate (McCain) because of a bad debate, a dumb vice-president candidate (Palin) saying dumb things, etc. But for a leading party to disintegrate (in this case the Republican Party) a lot of House candidates would have to lose their leads at the same times, which is very difficult.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. I don't think it's about every candidate losing their lead...

I think it's about creating enough national noise where some voters across the nation question where the Republican Party is taking us.

You're right. Not every race is going to be impacted by the crazies. There will be Republicans who dupe enough voters into buying what they're selling.

With that said, there is still a national campaign here. It might not be felt in every state and every district, but it will influence other districts.

We don't need Republicans to lose every seat. We just need enough to keep both the House & Senate.

We're already in prime position to keep the Senate due to a crackpot winning the primary in Delaware.

It'll trickle down. Maybe not to every campaign, but to some. And that's all we need.

[elizm]

6. Most of the polls are of likely voters...

...If the Democrats get their ground game together in states where there is a fighting chance, it could happen.

[flamingdem]

21. Plus cell phones only users need to weigh in and 70% of younger voters

say they'll vote.. and they primarily use cells. Update me if I am wrong on this but I read it somewhere.

[rufus dog]

26. This is the key point

The polls are manipulated to favor the Republicans. Remember "Pennsylvania is a toss up."

The big difference this year is that the polls/media can work to keep the turn out low due to economic factors.

[truedelphi]

43. Only 24 percent of all Americans even consider

themselves to be Republicans.

The fact that both the MAIN parties are given so much time on the news outlets, when clearly the majority of Americans are open to new ideas, lets us know how important these two political parties are to the Powers that Be.

[liberalla]

7. Are you forgetting September 15th ????

The day the shit hit the fan on Wall Street?

That, to me, was the day the wheels came off for McCain. It was so bad he had the cancel his appearance on the Letterman show. :sarcasm:


Five Days That Transformed Wall Street: Sept. 15 - 19, 2008



http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2008/09/20/GR2008092000318.html


I'm not discounting your points, but the financial crisis was the event that turned things around - decisively.

[RoyGBiv]

9. Question ...

Are you saying you've bought into the Republican lie that the "only" reason Obama won was because of events neither McCain or Obama could control?

[liberalla]

14. I don't believe that was what I was saying, and

I certainly don't believe that to be true.

The wall street meltdown ripped the mask off the "Repukes are better for business and for the economy..." meme. It wasn't true, but it was a major claim made and repeated enough to become ingrained in people's minds, and "common wisdom." Along with "repukes are better on the military" fallacy. It's not true, but it was embraced without question by the sweet followers who love their authoritarian daddy leaders.

With the meltdown, harsh reality smacked the the hell out of their fantasy world.
It was a turning point. "Big Time," to quote Cheney.

The scales fell from their eyes.

[FredStembottom]

24. Hi guys!

There is a very large Grey area here. No one is buying Republican lies. And the turning point of Sept. 15 just may have been a crown for what may have already been happening.

Here is a link to Minnesota Public Radios text coverage of the Obama rally of Feb. 2nd 2008:
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/02/02/satsweep/

Here is a snip:

Thousands attend Obama rally in Minneapolis
by Tom Scheck, Minnesota Public Radio
February 2, 2008

Listen to feature audio
Barack Obama was the first of four presidential candidates to campaign in Minnesota in the final days leading up to Minnesota's precinct caucuses Tuesday.

Minneapolis — Barack Obama did what the Minnesota Timberwolves could only do twice this season. He filled the Target Center. An estimated 20,000 people attended the afternoon event. Most of the seats were filled and hundreds stood on the floor watching Obama deliver a nearly hour long speech.

(unsnip)

This turned me around personally. It was a surprise. Many of us were still in a media-induced "Republicans just might do this thing" kind of depression here at that point.

There was a complete dis-connect. The media meme was still all about how "difficult" it would be for a black man or a woman to get elected - combined with "bruising fight for nomination" stuff.
Meanwhile, O was causing people to sleep on sidewalks and line up in lines blocks long to see him. And not just at this Minnesota event. All through the summer.

For me, it was reminiscent of the time millions of us around the world marched against starting the Iraq war. Historic. Unprecedented. And yet the Captive Media (MSM) steadfastly refused to change the meme.

I stand by what I saw right through the Captive Media's willful mis-framing.

And..... the crash still had lots to do with it.

[Hippo_Tron]

36. Elections are often decided by factors that the candidates can't control

I certainly think that Obama could have won without all of the Wall Street mess. It's just that the Wall Street mess made his win inevitable.

[TBF]

37. Have you ever wondered whether it was intentional?

Obama had a lot of support from the street and the "crash" came at an opportune time to propel Obama into the White House ...

[treestar]

16. It wasn't that. It was Palin.

It was his pick of Palin that did him in. Now he unleashed the idiocy and Palin is causing further damage to the R party.

[Usrename]

50. It was Tina Fey.

[Drunken Irishman]

29. Did you not read my post?

I never suggested that didn't play a role in Obama's success. Clearly I said as much in the post above.

I also said, however, that the polls were already turning PRIOR to the economic collapse. Go look. Once the gloss came off Palin, people started shifting dramatically to Obama.

That was happening before Sept. 15th.

[NJmaverick]

8. K&R

[Robbins]

10. Important things

There are polls showing things are Improving In the so called generic ballet.Even Gallup says Democrats enthusam Is Improving.PPP
says Republican lead among Independents Is down to 3.

Historical factor.Back In 1982 during the summer Reagan drop to 35 percent approval be got it to 42 percent close to election day
and Republican limited their loses to 26 House seats and 1 senate seat.back In 1994 Clinton was around 35 to 40 Percent approval
but also remember Democrats had the House for 40 years,there was a number of House scandals,there were constant allegations
against Clinton,and Republicans scowed a victory by killing the Clinton Health Care bill.Obama Is In higher ratings than eather one
Is right now.

Remember polls are assuming In the likely voter screen there to be a limited Democratic turnout.If Democrats get out to vote losses
will be limited.

This Is why when Obama campagins his audence should be getting Democrats and democratic leaning Independents.

And let's also consdier some generic and approval polls may be skewed by a large number of people In the South being polled more than
those In Northeast,Midwest,and West.

[Moosepoop]

11. K&R! n/t

[quaker bill]

12. The tea party has helped

But pointing to these folks as well out of the mainstream (to put it kindly), will not be enough in and of itself. This is necessary and will help, but we have to have more than fear on our side. We have to drive GOTV with something more positive as well. It is still possible to win this one, district by district. Generic polling advantages generally do not hold up well in individual races. A win in this case is likely the loss of a few seats, but retaining control of both houses.

We obtained some nearly unsustainable wins in 2008 because of the overall atmosphere, and we will probably end up giving some of this ground back regardless.

[MineralMan]

13. I think the more voters think about candidates like

O'Donnell, the more they're going to opt for a Democrat, and not only in SC. Every tea party wacko affects more than just the state they're running in. Many people actually don't even start thinking about election day until October, so there's still some time. Just my opinion.

[Peacetrain]

15. I think you are right!! K&R

I know they kept counting us out.. and guess what.. they were WRONG

[Scurrilous]

17. K & R

:thumbsup:

[Parker CA]

18. Completely agree with this and have thought the same many times recently. K&R!

[Tarheel_Dem]

22. An exciting, and very plausible, scenario. Thanks. (nt)

[roody]

23. The fix was in for the repubs, but the GOTV was too great.

[lunatica]

25. The teabaggers will get the Democrats to the voting booths

Because most Democrats understand that letting these extreme Republicans win will truly be the demise of our Country as we know it. WE might as well say Christian US of A if they win.

If Democrats stay home with this threat so obviously out there then I give up on all Americans.

[Spazito]

27. I well remember when there were many who questioned Obama's strategies...

during the election only to find them to have worked exceedingly well ie the 'rope-a-dope' strategy. Timing is everything and it seems the repubs, thank goodness, cannot learn that lesson.

Good OP, recommended.

[quiet.american]

28. Well said. nt

[Cha]

30. Thanks for your

analysis, Irish.

Why does no one like Harry Reid in Nevada?

[Aramchek]

31. after 2 months of learning all about the Teabaggers, the People will find them very hard to swallow

[firedupdem]

32. K&R n/t

[Politics_Guy25]

33. K and R to one of my favourite posters

Although I have to say, a GOP house guarantees an Obama 2012 victory.

[Whisp]

34. kick!

[PatrynXX]

38. I would say, eehhh but they would learn their lesson

Except they keep throwing brain dead people in the way.

[Richlu]

39. Yes, but we need to send out information like this--1

[Richlu]

40. And this--2

[Richlu]

41. And this--3

[Richlu]

42. Ooops. Bigger?

[Richlu]

44. If you can tell me how to get my images bigger. . . .

Let me know. This one is 1024 X 791, but it's still not readable.

Thnx.

[Drunken Irishman]

49. Yeah, I don't know?

Sorry. But it looks cool!

[laughingliberal]

45. "No one likes him in Nevada - but he's a tolerable figure compared to the bat-shit loon ..."

I'm in Nevada and I like him. There are certainly some I like more than him but he's got a bunch of the Blue Dogs beat by a long shot.

Plus, he killed Yucca Mountain! :bounce: and the bat shit crazy loon supports revisiting it.

I have not one problem going to the polls in November and casting my vote for Reid.

[Drunken Irishman]

47. Well generally speaking...

haha, I think his approval ratings are in the dumps.

But that's fine, just as long as he wins! :)

[mckara]

46. We Have to Work and Help Our Candidates!

[YankeeLeft7x]

48. Real enemies of America "Freedom" are the Republicans

?????

Get out your crystal balls people.....The Media has all but crowned these Republicans with the Congress in 2010.

The mass media is not friendly to the Democrats or liberal issues. The mass media roots for the GOP and has done so ever since Obama was voted into office.

The GOP have been busy at work trying to nullify the Obama win in 2008 ever since. The mass media has done a piss poor job pointing out that the GOP are the enemies of freedom and liberty they claim to "support."

The real enemies of America are the Republicans and their flock.

Who makes up the government? The people do....

When Republicans say government is the "problem" they are saying invertly that their fellow citizens whom make up that government are their enemies.

[obxhead]

52. A couple of points.

First, while I agree with your assessment of Palin, she actually revitalized the McCain campaign and brought his numbers out of the toilet. At least in the polls they touted on all the news networks.


Second, I never once believed any of the polls. With the things the MSM reports and the slants they take I think nearly every poll was generated with only one goal. Keep the race close in order to keep the news channels tuned in. I don't think the race was ever as close as all the polls seemed to show. I didn't believe them then and am completely ignoring them now as well.

[larwdem]

53. I HOPE YOU ARE RIGHT

[Botany]

54. No matter how they try to package it the teabaggers are not a new power

Guaranteed that 99 % of them a registered to vote and voted in 2008, 2006, 2004, 2002, 2000, ......

[nevergiveup]

55. Yep. I was just thinking this today.

These people are not "new voters". It is total hogwash. Last summer the media went nuts over the teabaggers at the town halls and portrayed them as some sort of new force in American politics. There is no question all the hullabaloo gave these right wing fanatics added exposure, energy and financing but in the end this extreme conservative movement, much like in 1964, will be the G.O.P.'s undoing. The only problem is that if we don't GOTV this Nov. we may have to put up with a Tea Party Congress for a couple of years and this will not be pretty for the country.

[technotwit]

57. whigs

Remember what happened to the Whig party. They disappeared almost overnight and that's where the Republican party came from. I wonder if we're seeing a similar shift?

[MaeScott]

58. Our prospects are NOT bleak....

...we just have to turn out and vote.
The media is selling a load of wolf cookies. Over and over.

[Raine1967]

59. I think this needs a Bump! eom

[Raine1967]

60. I wonder if anyone has the polls/ media meme from 2006.

I could find them here in the DU Archives couldn't I? I wonder if that summer prior to the elections was polling the way '08 and now this year is. It would be very interesting to see.

[suzie]

61. K&R