AR-02: Snyder Narrowly Leads Griffin

[ccharles000]

Public Policy Polling (pdf) (11/11-13, registered voters):

Vic Snyder (D-inc): 44
Tim Griffin (R): 43
Undecided: 13

Vic Snyder (D-inc): 45
David Meeks (R): 42
Undecided: 13

Vic Snyder (D-inc): 44
Scott Wallace (R): 42
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.9%)

When the NRCC got former US Attorney and Karl Rove acolyte Tim Griffin to run against Democratic Rep. Vic Snyder, it was clear this would be Snyder's biggest test in a while. PPP (which is starting to poll some southern House races in the next few months, with VA-09 coming next) confirms this, finding a 1-point edge for Snyder. Snyder, unlike many other southern Dems, has had some hard-fought races in his recent past (not in 2008, though -- he was unopposed), so he doesn't have much rust to shake off, but clearly this one will be hard-fought too.

However, this doesn't seem to be about Griffin as much as the Democratic brand in Arkansas, especially among independents (Barack Obama's approval is 41/52, despite this currently being the mostly Dem-leaning district in the state). Griffin, despite his Beltway reputation, is still little known in his district (with a 14/19 favorable), and Griffin only slightly overperforms two guys I've literally never heard of, who are even less known: 7/15 for David Meeks, whose website is appropriately whoisdavidmeeks.com, and 11/14 for Scott Wallace. Snyder's approval is 42/46, but it's at 30/56 among independents. Discontent with Snyder may be peaking right now in the wake of the health care reform vote, which is opposed by 55% of the district's voters, including 67% of independents.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5908/ar02-snyder-narrowly-leads-griffin

[Nyquil Man]

1. It's going to get ugly in Arkansas.

Obama losing by 20 points when Kerry lost by only ten was a bad sign. Obama lost support compared to Kerry in nearly every non-urban county in the state.

Arkansas has lagged behind the rest of the South, remaining loyal to the Democrats at the state level. But it looks like Arkansas is fast on the way to turning into Alabama.

[CTLawGuy]

2. The dems are probably going to sustain most of their losses

in 10, in the south. This is the Republicans' stronghold.