Latest SurveyUSA poll: Paul leads Conway by 15 points in KY.

[totodeinhere]

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20100905/NEWS010603/100904006/Complete-results-Kentucky-U-S-Senate-poll

I wonder what Conway needs to do to turn this around. The prospect of Rand Paul in the Senate is scary. He is almost as bad as Sharron Angle in Nevada. Add that nut case from Alaska, Rubio from Florida, and Toomey from PA and we have a very bad trend. I'm not saying that they all will win. Let's hope they don't. But even if only one or two of them win, that's bad enough.

[flpoljunkie]

1. God, I hope it's an outlier! Shame on KY if they elect this unqualified yahoo!

Louisville and Lexington Democrats, you need to get out and vote!

[totodeinhere]

2. I doubt if it's really 15 points. I just can't imagine that.

But even if the race is a dead heat at this point, that's scary enough. Angle is so crazy and stupid that even if she wins, people won't take her seriously. But Paul is more dangerous because he might be taken seriously by some.

[msongs]

3. white racists vote early and often nt

[Codeine]

4. I have no idea why this surprises folks.

It's Kentucky.

[Davis_X_Machina]

5. Economic self-interest...

...and a quarter will get you a cup of coffee.

They know that Paul will let them keep their guns, and make sure those &$%@1* coloreds, liberals, women, homos and immigrants know what their real place in this country is. And at Jesus' name every knee shall bend. Which is, after all, the job of a politician.

Next to that, things like having a job, or a roof over your head pale in comparison. Next to that, who cars about the top 1% slowly devouring everyone else.

[totodeinhere]

6. You hit the nail right on the head.

That's why so many voters vote against their own best interests. They are so blinded by their bigotry that they don't care about anything else.

[AlinPA]

7. It looks like all of them will win (KY,CO,AK,NV,PA,FL).

[totodeinhere]

8. I think that the chance that they might get a clean sweep and win all of those races is remote.

But if it happens God help us.

[AlinPA]

9. Here in PA, Toomey leads Sestak in polls and is saturating TV with ads the last 2 months.

Sestak is making a weak attempt to counter him, and it looks very bad now.

[Aramchek]

10. SurveyUSA is shit

[totodeinhere]

12. What do you have to back up that claim?

This article from Daily Kos seems to indicate that they are pretty darned accurate. But if you have information to the contrary, please post it.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/3/15117/43120/829/468026

[FBaggins]

15. That he doesn't like the results of course.

Survey USA has a pretty solid track record. Usually near (or at) the top of Nate Silver's accuracy ratings.

Doesn't mean that any particular poll is accurate of course... but it's getting silly to read a poll with discouraging results only to be told that the particular polling firm (which no includes just about every single polling firm) sucks or is biased.

I've even seen PPP slammed once or twice... and they're an openly democratic polling firm.

[Aramchek]

17. SurveyUSA is Anti-Democratic

http://elections.firedoglake.com/2010/02/03/statement-from-surveyusa-on-dccc-polling-memos/

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0210/Abramowitz_challenges_blog_surveys.html#

[totodeinhere]

18. The article you quoted concerns arguments over technical issues involving polling methods.

SurveyUSA uses a smaller sample size of younger voters because younger voters have historically voted in smaller numbers than other age groups, while on the other hand older voters historically have voted in greater numbers. Most other pollsters use a similar methodology. And that's fine, you can quibble over methodology. But the best way to judge a pollster is to look at how their pre-election predictions compare with the actual results, and using that measure, Survey USA comes out at or near the top.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings

[KingFlorez]

11. Survey USA's polls have been very strange

All sorts of odd crosstabs.

[WI_DEM]

14. that's a March, 2008 daily kos, this year they have been much farther off than

many other pollsters and what they are showing in key races. Their demos have been weird too.

[FBaggins]

16. As of June, 538 had them ranked right at the top.

Only two polling firms (the Field poll and ABC/WAPost) had lower Pollster Induced Error (PIE) scores. One of them had performed 19 polls and the other had 40... while SUSA had done 634. Even Mason Dixon (my favorite for most races) wasn't as high.


http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/pollster-ratings-v40-results.html

[WI_DEM]

13. SUSA has been junk this year, no other polls give Paul that kind of lead.

their demos have been weird with statistics like young voters in almost every race going overwhelmingly for the GOP--I can see them not voting or being unenthusiastic but I doubt young voters are overly taken with the GOP. They have polls which show worse showings even for Brown and Boxer than Rasmussen in California. Until I see other polls giving Paul a 15-point lead in KY when other polls show a much tighter race then I will discount this one as a outlier.

[totodeinhere]

19. I already said up thread that I doubt if it's really 15 points.

However, SurveyUSA has been pretty darned accurate in the past, and even if the lead isn't really 15 points, most polls do show Paul in the lead, albeit by a smaller margin than that. And any way you want to slice it that is bad news.