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Does anyone think Obama's ratings are probably HIGHER than anyone else's would be right now?

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liberalpragmatist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-22-10 12:05 AM
Original message
Does anyone think Obama's ratings are probably HIGHER than anyone else's would be right now?
Amidst all the handwringing from the pundits and bloggers about Obama's approval ratings, I must dissent. While approval ratings in the low-to-mid 40s are nothing to write home about, a lot of the handwringing misses some crucial context. As others have pointed out, Obama's approval rating is higher than Reagan, Clinton and Carter all had at this stage of their presidencies, and though both Bushes had much higher ratings 19 months in, both were boosted by external crises.

Now, I do think there are plenty of legitimate grounds for criticism of Obama: detainee policy, lack of heterodox thinking among his economic team, too small a stimulus, etc. But overall, despite my disagreements and disappointments on some issues, I think he's doing a good job, considering the terrible situation he inherited. And while I think it's fair to criticize him on policy grounds, I think a lot of the political criticisms - i.e. "Obama would have higher approval ratings if he said the things I think he should say" - are a little out there. We know that presidential approval ratings are largely driven by fundamentals: presentational and tonal issues play a role, but a much smaller role.

All that being said, insofar as presentational and tonal issues *DO* matter, I think there's a decent case that Obama is doing better than one might expect. For all the criticism that he doesn't "show enough anger" or is "out of touch," I would argue that Obama's coolness and intelligence are a tremendous source of strength for him and things that large numbers of Americans admire about him.

Further, it's arguable that given the economic conditions, he's probably doing BETTER than most would under the same circumstances. Most governors currently have approval ratings in the 20s or 30s, for example. Aside from Hillary, who I do think would have managed similar ratings, I think it's arguable that any other president - Democrat or Republican - would face approval ratings in the 30s under these conditions.

Now, in the interest of consistency I must apply the same qualifier I apply to the pundits' conjecture: you can't prove a hypothetical. So nobody really knows. But so long as we're debating why Obama's ratings are low (though historically totally precedented for a second-year presidency), I think it's worth at least debating whether his ratings are better than you could expect in this climate.
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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-22-10 12:10 AM
Response to Original message
1. His numbers are quite normal for a 2nd year presidency
Baby Bush's post 9/11 bounce lasted a very long time, but if you look at other presidents you will see a similar pattern.

What I am dreading even more than this fall's elections is the post-election hand-wringing from the Georgetown Cocktail Party media.
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The Traveler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-22-10 12:26 AM
Response to Original message
2. His ratings are spectacular
given the circumstances of his Presidency. I mean, seriously. Our country is dealing with some really heavy crap right now ... the worst I have seen in my life of some 54 years ... I wouldn't have Obama's job for all the Jamesons in Dublin. We're in a mess, no doubt about it. (Thanks, George.) And B has so far managed to keep the wheels from coming clear off the cart.

While I might not be thrilled about some of his policy choices, I have to give him props for that. And I really don't see anyone better out there. That, I think, explains why his numbers are not lower ... a lot of people have thought the matter through far enough to come to that position.

Trav
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Proud Liberal Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-22-10 12:32 AM
Response to Original message
3. Your analysis is pretty spot-on IMHO
I'm not sure how well anybody else would be faring under similar circumstances, which is why I find myself groaning the instant I see another "2012 primary?" thread. I can pretty much guarantee that, weak (politically) or not, the Republicans do not appear to have any serious and credible people to run against him and will almost certainly not be able to win against them and I think that they know that already. Palin? Newt? Romney? Can anybody see any of them being able to go toe-to-toe with Obama- who will be able to offer an unapologetic defense of everything that he and the Democratic Party have accomplished during the last 1-2 years and knows how to swat away talking points when they start flying at him.
I also find a lot of the hand-wringing and obsessiveness in the corporate media about President Obama's poll numbers to be rather excessive under the circumstances but then again, President Obama IS a Democrat and, as we learned during Clinton's Presidency- even BEFORE Fox News came into existence, Democrats seem to be more drastically scrutinized and criticized and "held accountable" than Republicans are. It is important IMHO to point out that, however *low* President Obama's poll numbers are at any given moment, Republicans' numbers are even LOWER and only seem to be *benefiting* politically from a still-rotten economy and the anti-incumbent sentiment (which is inevitably falling on the Democratic Party) that inevitably follows it. People are not loving them some Republicans all of the sudden, they're just mad and hurting from the economic doldrums and feel inclined to do SOMETHING to try to make things better. Of course, asking for Republicans to try to fix the government/economy is practically like asking for a hole in your head but when people are angry and suffering, logic is often not part of the equation (unfortunately). In order to win, Democrats just need to keep reminding people of the Bush years and remind them of all the reasons that they do NOT want to go back there- because that's where a Republican victory in November is going to undoubtedly take us.
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BootinUp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-22-10 12:56 AM
Response to Original message
4. analysis from Ezra Klein
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bigwillq Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-22-10 01:13 AM
Response to Original message
5. I think Obama is more popular
than many of the poll numbers have suggested. I, for one, don't really pay attention to these polls because they seem to change every day, every week, etc...I think, overall, Obama remains a pretty popular guy.

Yes, I know there's a difference between being "popular" and having people "approve" of the job he's doing. But, when it comes down to it, sometimes it's not so bad being popular. Obama certainly can draw a crowd, which has to count for something.
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maynard Donating Member (514 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-22-10 02:11 AM
Response to Original message
6. questions not objective
Polling is all about how you ask the question. If you ask, "Do you still beat your wife?" There is no correct answer if you have never beat your wife. I used to get polling calls from Governor Huckabee. They were always prefaced something like:

"Do you agree with________________if it means raising taxes and placing a financial burden on your child and grandchildren which________________________and changes how you view_______________________while_______________________?

They do not call me anymore because I never gave them the the answers they were looking for. A pollster can get the answers they want depending on how the question is asked.

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MannyGoldstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-22-10 03:39 AM
Original message
FDR was insanely popular
He was a proud Democrat, not a victim.
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MannyGoldstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-22-10 03:39 AM
Response to Original message
7. FDR was insanely popular
He was a proud Democrat, not a victim.
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SunsetDreams Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-22-10 05:08 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. Just like Obama, FDR had his critics
The Depression and New Deal Years, 1929–1939

excerpts:

Franklin Roosevelt was not capable of ending the Depression by himself, but he was willing to try almost anything, and try he did. He brought a sense of hope to Washington and conveyed it to the American people. FDR was by no means without critics, however; those on the left accused him of being a closet capitalist, and those on the right accused him of betraying his patrician class with socialist ideas. Roosevelt took it all in stride, commenting that because he was being attacked from both sides of the political spectrum, then he must be doing something right. FDR’s New Deal did not end the Depression, but it changed the relationship between the government and the American people forever, and its legacy is still with us. Memories of the Great Depression have all but disappeared except among the very old, but the effects of the Depression have never completely gone away.

________

The Election of 1936

Although the focus of the opposition to Roosevelt’s programs came from Republicans, who were heavily outnumbered in Congress, there were plenty of conservative southern senators and congressmen who were unhappy with various aspects of the New Deal. Critics on both sides argued that Roosevelt, if not actually a Communist, was dragging the country in the direction of socialism, or even worse, that he was flirting with Communism. Although such charges could be written off as political attacks, FDR was nevertheless obliged to defend himself against them by declaring in his 1936 reelection campaign that Communism was not an issue between the two major parties, and that people should “put that red herring to rest.”

Some of the opposition to Roosevelt’s reelection from the left came from within his own party. Some of his Democratic critics believed that Roosevelt’s reforms had not gone far enough, that he was just “fronting” for Wall Street, as Huey Long had charged. Several of Roosevelt’s critics organized a Union party, presenting a populist alternative to the mainstream Democrats. Also on the left was the Communist Party led by Earl Browder, whose convention at Madison Square Garden in New York City in 1936 attracted a large crowd. Browder claimed charges that Roosevelt’s programs were communistic were ridiculous and merely a cover-up for capitalism. (The appeal of Communism was blunted by the fact that communist sympathizers—“fellow travelers”—were disturbed by the belief that international Communism was controlled mostly from Moscow.)

Despite the critics on the right, left, and even in the center of the political spectrum, Roosevelt won a second term by a huge landslide. His opponent, Governor Alf Landon of Kansas, won only two states and eight electoral votes; FDR had 523.


http://www.academicamerican.com/twentiesdepww2/depressionnewdeal/depression.htm

Lengthy article, but well worth the read.
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MannyGoldstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-22-10 07:03 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. Yes. But his popularity only grew.
By the 1936 elections, only 17 Republican senators remained!

It would be very, very good if we could achieve that, too.
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FBaggins Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-22-10 05:55 AM
Response to Original message
9. Sure... But Carter's probaby were too...
And he still got clobbered. There's no "curve" on election Tuesday.
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tanyev Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-22-10 07:21 AM
Response to Original message
11. I recc'd--got you up to zero.
*sigh*
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Clio the Leo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-22-10 08:09 AM
Response to Original message
12. I will GLADLY take "Obama's a Muslim" controversies over...
.... "Obama is destroying the awesome economy his predecessor left him"

or

"Obama took us out of one war we should have been in to put us into a war we had no business in."

or

"did Obama lie to a Grand Jury about cheating on his wife?"


..... yeah .... lets debate the how strong the President's faith is ..... BRING IT!
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JoePhilly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-22-10 08:18 AM
Response to Original message
13. Here's a site where you can track ....
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/presidential-approval-tracker.htm

You can compare past Presidents too.

Obama and Reagan are almost identical.
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slackmaster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-22-10 09:50 AM
Response to Original message
14. Obama's ratings don't matter until the GOP nominates someone with higher ratings
:hi:
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-22-10 10:12 AM
Response to Original message
15. Most people know that the problems the nation faces
were not generated during this presidency.

They are steamed at Congress, but that is usually the case.

The Baggers' objections to Obama amount to a steady chorus of squawking, more or less over nothing, and in many cases, over a trumped up "fact" such as his "birth in Kenya" or his affiliation with a "secret Muslin" cabal. (One Bagger sign actually spelled 'Muslim' as 'Muslin.' So much for intellectual heft.)

Obama the person has enormous reserves of personal charm. He is very bright, welcoming, and unafraid to talk to anybody.

He likes pie.

The case for him as a person and a president is far stronger than the case made against him by his detractors generally and by the Bagger squawkers especially.

Recommended.
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